DSW - Local Elections 2009

[hiding behind a poster]

I'm merely saying that in 1997 he was the great hope for Fine Gael and yet in 2002 he was gone, mainly because of not putting the work in and being too sure of himself. It could happen again. And please no roll eyes it's a bit childish don't you think.

There's a few points to remember there - firstly, the constituency went from a 5-seater to a 4-seater in 2002, so even if Hayes had got the same number of votes in 2002 as in 1997, he might not have got in. Secondly, the FG vote crashed in 2002, due to a variety of national factors, and it plummeted particularly in Dublin, dropping by an average of 8-10%. Hayes' performance in DSW, where his vote dropped by just 2.8%, was much better than that average. Thirdly, I don't think anyone can plausibly accuse Hayes of "not putting the work in" since then - whether you like him or not. Fourthly, since 2002 the demographic of the constituency has changed notably, with areas such as Ballycullen and Citywest, where Hayes and FG pick up an excellent vote, forming a larger proportion of the electorate than previously.

[hiding behind a poster]

There is no doubt but Labour will do well , as will Fianna Gael

Its "Fine Gael", not "Fianna Gael", Amber.

[Tony B]

I would have thought Hayes as with other Fine Gael candidtates around the country should have have got Harneys PD vote in the area, i don't dispute that the boundarys have changed a little since 2002 and thus will help him but Lenihans vote has gone up because he works very hard on the ground. I just don't think he is a shoe in for 2012 as everyone thinks he is.

[hiding behind a poster]

I would have thought Hayes as with other Fine Gael candidtates around the country should have have got Harneys PD vote in the area

No, Harney was an old-style PD - i.e a Fianna Failer. Her voters were basically Fianna Fail voters, and once she left DSW they reverted to FF. If you look at the 1997/2002 comparisons from the various polling stations, the FF vote in most cases went up by virtually the exact amount of Harney's 1997 vote.

i don't dispute that the boundarys have changed a little since 2002 and thus will help him

Its not so much boundary changes, as new areas. There are now far more houses, estates and people in areas like Ballycullen and Citywest than there were in 2002 - and what's more, many of the residents are people who grew up in Dublin South, where there was always a high FG vote. As such, if Hayes works those voters he has a better chance of success than from voters in, say, Jobstown. As an example, Hayes got a colossal 45% of the vote in 2007 in Hunterswood.

but Lenihans vote has gone up because he works very hard on the ground.

Are you seriously referring to Conor Lenihan? Honestly, I'm not being smart - its just that no-one has ever accused Lenihan of being hard-working before. Last time round he was invisible until September 2006.

I just don't think he is a shoe in for 2012 as everyone thinks he is.

No-one is ever a shoe-in for any election, and no-one thinks they are either.

[Tony B]

Thanks for that info it's very intresting, could you tell me where you get all the data from different polling stations and areas etc? I see Lenihan fairly often around where i live in Old Bawn and around the square, and my god o'connor is basicilly all over the place.

[hiding behind a poster]

Thanks for that info it's very intresting, could you tell me where you get all the data from different polling stations and areas etc?

I don't know if its in the public domain anywhere, but all the parties would have it from their tallying data.

[outwithcorruption]

Thanks for that info it's very intresting, could you tell me where you get all the data from different polling stations and areas etc? I see Lenihan fairly often around where i live in Old Bawn and around the square, and my god o'connor is basicilly all over the place.

You must go to a load of funerals,the only time you see O'Connor is outside a church after a funeral.

[Tony B]

You must go to a load of funerals,the only time you see O'Connor is outside a church after a funeral.

I haven't seen Rabbite once in Old Bawn in 15 years id say or Hayes since 2002 when he was like a bull looking for votes.

[cctvstar]

I haven't seen Rabbite once in Old Bawn in 15 years id say or Hayes since 2002 when he was like a bull looking for votes.

Obviously you regard funeral going ambulance chasers who turn up at the opening of an envelope as good representatives for the Dail to which they are elected.

Personally I prefer my TDs to attend and contribute to Dail debates of national importance, not only at debates which require the insertion of the word Tallaght in Guinness book of recordsesque proportions. However if thats what rocks your boat fair play to you.

Rabbitte is normally in Tallaght most Saturdays either leafletting for the Labour party or conducting his clinic in Tallaght village between 2 and 3 which in fact usually goes on longer due to queues. Not sure of Brian Hayes but he lives in Tallaght so by default he would have to be around more than crazy horse.

[Tony B]

Ah yeah Par Rabbitte who is in with Vincent Browne every second night and always has a joke ready at every turn everywhere he goes. He has nothing of importance to say ever as far im concerned but that's what you like game ball.