DSW - Local Elections 2009

[drjimryan]

i presumed both crowe and daly will stand in central....much to daly's annoyance.......

however.....I still think they stand a good chance....especially if crowe 'works' the templeouge/greenhills end (which is vital for a dail seat and where he went wrong).......

the disarray in FF (mainly caused by charlie)....will be electorally damaging....for a long time after he's gone.....

and I cant see 2500 + being silly twice and voting for 'rathfarnham mick'.......

[....isainmdom]

i presumed both crowe and daly will stand in central....much to daly's annoyance.......

Much like your insider scoops like " Neville and Hannon's dream ticket in South" and your classic and best timed gaffe ever "Ambrose back on the scene" the above highlighted quote couldn't be further off the mark. My advice (for what it's worth), set up a thread on "locals 2009 Leitrim" throw out a few wild speculative predictions and I can garauntee you will be closer than you have been on this thread thus far. Don't mean to be unnecesarily insulting - maybe your saving the best for last.

[brenners']

As the running partner for King in Tallaght South at the last election I can tell you Jim you are way off the mark when it comes to how Mark would be feeling about Sean running. Mark would be looking for the same as all of us if that is in fact the strategy, which as far as I know has not yet been decided so is just speculation. He would be looking for Sinn Féin to regain the ground lost last year, manage our vote successfully by dividing the area properly, and increase our representation. He would be happy to take the direction of the election directorate on how we go about doing this. We almost managed this in South last time and I can see no reason why it can’t be done in central this time around. If Mark and Sean where to run together, which is only an assumption, I am sure they would be able to do the job, they are best friends and unlike FF Shinners don’t go out to cut each others throats as the party is what comes first always!! So your comments about Marks position are incorrect and wrong and based on nothing but your own opinion. I remember PIE posters saying myself and King where pulling down each others posters at the last LE when we worked absolutely excellently together so I would take these stories with a pinch of salt.

[WATERGATE]

Will TRCU have any chance of a seat? its pretty crowded in Tallaght Central as it is?

I was talkin to a SF friend and she says Daly isn running!

Who is your SF friend that has all this so called knowledge that Mark Daly is not running? As another SF member it is the first I have heard that Mark Daly is not running

Mark's vote was split exactly in half by the Boundary Report and he is inactive on the ground for the last 18 months. Sean will pick up a certain vote in Greenhills but nothing great. If Mark & Sean run they will just damage each other and could cause a situation where Sinn Fein in a six seater end up with no seat.

[hiding behind a poster]

Will TRCU have any chance of a seat? its pretty crowded in Tallaght Central as it is?

I was talkin to a SF friend and she says Daly isn running!

Who is your SF friend that has all this so called knowledge that Mark Daly is not running? As another SF member it is the first I have heard that Mark Daly is not running

Mark's vote was split exactly in half by the Boundary Report and he is inactive on the ground for the last 18 months. Sean will pick up a certain vote in Greenhills but nothing great. If Mark & Sean run they will just damage each other and could cause a situation where Sinn Fein in a six seater end up with no seat.

Watergate - seriously. There is absolutely NO chance of SF getting no seat in Tallaght Central. They could run a Paisley/Thatcher ticket and still hold one.

[....isainmdom]

Hiding, whats the view of you Gaelers chances in South and Central in your considered opinion (not asking for any scoops or anything, obviously). Warren seems to have built up a good rep for herself in certain parts and she's a very likeable individual but her area like others has been badly split. Will the second candidate we hear ye are running help her to the finishing post with some additional firhouse based votes, as Hayes' votes don't seem to automatically transfer to FG's Council candidates. That said, Warren got herself elected in 04 with a lot of local and personal votes outside of the general FG/Hayes pool.

In terms of Central, Brophy seems capable enough, we'll have to wait and see if he has the stamina to be a Tallaght Councillor. Big difference between Terenure Rathfarnham and Tallaght in terms of work rate needed on the ground. What about his running mate? history/credentials etc. Do you reckon the fact that he's (Brophy) not from Tallaght, Templeogue or even DSW, will that affect him negatively or will try give the impression that he is ala comrade Rathfarnham Mick of the P.P.

[brenners']

So maybe King and Daly run in South were much of Marks vote is!! Oh and don't count out the fact that Pat R might be going for the EU and a bye-election is on the cards!! This goes way befond locals in my humble opinion!! But is all speculation at this time!!

[hiding behind a poster]

Hiding, whats the view of you Gaelers chances in South and Central in your considered opinion (not asking for any scoops or anything, obviously).

Trust me, you won't be getting any scoops from me.....

Warren seems to have built up a good rep for herself in certain parts and she's a very likeable individual but her area like others has been badly split

Her vote hasn't really been split at all - she only got the FG core vote north of the N81 anyway, so she should at the very least gain that in the new areas.

Will the second candidate we hear ye are running help her to the finishing post with some additional firhouse based votes

Well if I'd heard anything of what you claim to have heard, I might be able to help you there - but I haven't, so I can't.

as Hayes' votes don't seem to automatically transfer to FG's Council candidates.

There's a couple of points there - you have to remember that DSW (Tallaght in particular) was not a happy hunting ground for FG in the years between McMahon and Hayes winning Dail seats - indeed the party vote dropped as low as 6% in 1992. What Hayes has done is gradually chisel out a large personal vote, as well as gradually build the FG vote, since 1997. Also, it should be remembered that Hayes' home patch of Kingswood had its own candidate in 2004 (Labour's outgoing Cllr Don Tipping), and that was always going to affect the FG vote in that ward.

In terms of Central, Brophy seems capable enough, we'll have to wait and see if he has the stamina to be a Tallaght Councillor. Big difference between Terenure Rathfarnham and Tallaght in terms of work rate needed on the ground.

You clearly don't know Colm Brophy.

What about his running mate? history/credentials etc.

Hard to say, given that I don't know who that running mate is yet.

Do you reckon the fact that he's (Brophy) not from Tallaght, Templeogue or even DSW, will that affect him negatively or will try give the impression that he is ala comrade Rathfarnham Mick of the P.P.

I can't see Brophy trying to pretend he's from Tallaght, to be honest. But I think if a councillor is working hard and builds a track record, people tend not to be too bothered where he's from. Look at John Hannon, for instance.

[WATERGATE]

Will TRCU have any chance of a seat? its pretty crowded in Tallaght Central as it is?

I was talkin to a SF friend and she says Daly isn running!

Who is your SF friend that has all this so called knowledge that Mark Daly is not running? As another SF member it is the first I have heard that Mark Daly is not running

Mark's vote was split exactly in half by the Boundary Report and he is inactive on the ground for the last 18 months. Sean will pick up a certain vote in Greenhills but nothing great. If Mark & Sean run they will just damage each other and could cause a situation where Sinn Fein in a six seater end up with no seat.

Watergate - seriously. There is absolutely NO chance of SF getting no seat in Tallaght Central. They could run a Paisley/Thatcher ticket and still hold one.

In politics, never say never. If both candidates run, they will be searching for the majority of their votes from four areas Brookfield, Fettercairn, Springfield & Tymon. Local Elections are just that and with the elimination of one of the two candidates, local geographical considerations (local candidates) will take effect. If both candidates run they will be running to win and neither will have a sweeper mentality. It is quite conceviable that they could cancel each other out. The overall demographics of the new Tallaght Central is totally different to the existing TC.

[WATERGATE]

[ Her vote hasn't really been split at all - she only got the FG core vote north of the N81 anyway, so she should at the very least gain that in the new areas.

Warren polled approximately 1600 votes in 2004. Approximately 800 of that vote came from north of the N81. Warren then picked up approximately 360 votes on the elimination of Don Tipping. Warren's vote has been split in half and she will need a similar amount from Firhouse with sufficient transfers to survive in 2009. It can be done but it will be tight.