4th seat in Mid West?

[apkavanagh]

So who will win the 4th seat in Dublin Mid West?
FF: Their one seat is safe. Likely to move Cllr. Deirdre Doherty Ryan in here, as she is Palmerstown based, and could take a 2nd seat if their national vote holds up.
FG: No identifiable candidate as of yet. Therese Ridge, their only councillor in this area, doesn't seem able to translate LE support into GE support. Will be hoping for a breakthrough in Lucan in locals, or else for Brian Hayes to move here.
Lab: Joanna Tuffy was one to miss out in 2002 and will be helped by transfer of rest of her local election constituency into this general election constituency.
Greens: Transfer of Palmerstown into area (where he had decent support in 1999 LE) and extra seat cements Paul Gogarty's seat.
PDs: Quota reduced in percentage terms so this helps Mary Harney, just as it helps Gogarty.
SF: To data, this is one of their weakest areas in Dublin outside of Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown. But if they got aNorth Clondalkin based candidate elected in the locals, then they'dbe pushing for the final seat too. But likely to be pipped by the longer established and stronger Tuffy.

[David Cochrane]

Lab: Joanna Tuffy was one to miss out in 2002 and will be helped by transfer of rest of her local election constituency into this general election constituency.

As well as being a Senator, so I'd say Labour can be hopeful for a seat here.

Its all about PD and FG votes in this area I would think. Also the FF-Des Kelly factor.

Austin Currie lost his seat last time ,and with a question mark over Mary Harney's future political plans, it could be a constituency to watch.

Though a four seater is more likely to secure further PD success in the constituency.

[alanmcg]

I have to agree that as it stands Joanna Tuffy should be favourite for the extra seat.

Fianna Fail have a chance of a 2nd with either Doherty Ryan or Des Kelly - depending on who takes the seat in the Lucan LEA in the local elections. I think that John Curran will stay sufficiently ahead of the other party candidate to be perceived as extremely strong. (Watch for the row over vote management next time). With the PDs safer than before it is hard to see 3 'government' seats here though.

Fine Gael have big problems. Austin Currie is gone and Therese Ridge will be 65/66 next time around so her chance unfortunately has gone - 3 General Elections and 3 miserable results. She is running again in Clondalkin for the Locals and will be fine and I can't see them taking a seat back in Lucan so they will have no councillor to contest. The brian Hayes scenario would be a good move I think as Hayes lives just over the edge of the constituency in Kingswood and could be attractive to the youngish population. FG must make a strong challenge for the extra seat if they are to recover at all. I think Brian Hayes was mentioned also as a possible for Kildare South.

Labour and Greens in Joanna Tuffy and Paul Gogarty will be most happy as Palmerstown is in their LEAs so they will benefit more than the PDs from the inclusion of the new ares in the constituency. Gogarty I think has become even stronger locally and no doubt is a very happy man today.

It is amazing how weak SF are in the area with not even a sniff of an LEA candidate. I agree that they could make a challenge if they got their act together but there is no evidence of this ot here. The much talked about SF machine has yet to visit us.

[cain1798]

I think most of the points here are spot on. Tuffy has to be the clear favourite to pick up the fourth seat with the others very much as you were. Unless Harney doesn't run, now I think she will, but there's over three years to an election. If she doesn't run I would be astonished to see the PDs hold the seat and this might open up the possibility of the PDs losing a seat to FF, or even a strong FG candidate if one can be found.

The much talked about 'SF machine' relies on people, and we can't be strong everywhere. Unlike FF and FG, we can't afford to pay people to run our campaigns for us, put up posters and deliver leaflets. That said, running very much the most papery of papery candidates in the General Election SF polled over 6.5%. While organisationally it might be one of the weakest areas for the party, in terms of potential, it's almost dripping with possibilities.

Expect a SF challenger in the Locals.

[mullin]

Has to be Derek Keating, the name on everyone's lips.

[It Needs 2B Said!]

FG: No identifiable candidate as of yet.

Fine Gael have big problems. Austin Currie is gone and Therese Ridge will be 65/66 next time around so her chance unfortunately has gone - FG must make a strong challenge for the extra seat if they are to recover at all.

FG has identified a young candidate which will be parachuted in great style.

[KingKane]

Any hints? it's not some bearded failure from the locals is it?

[apkavanagh]

FF: Hopes of a second seat in Mid west now seems doomed after disastrous performances in Lucan and Clondalkin in the LE, but there should be one safe seat and that will be Curran in all likelihood given FF's slightly stronger standing in the Clondalkin side of Mid West.
FG: Who is that masked man? Need one strong candidate here, otherwise they will be just providing the transfers tp elect Tuffy and Gogarty.
Lab: Joanna Tuffy looks a very good bet for a seat, especially in the wake of the party's much improved local election performance.
PD: Mary Harney may lose some votes in percentile terms, but should be safe especially with transfers likely from the 2nd FFer (unless McDowell really p***es off the FF voters in the next GE! ). On a very bad day for the Government however...
GP: Gogarty did well to take last seat here in 2002 with only a portion of a quota, mainly thanks to a good Lucan vote and the FG implosion. If FG don't get their act together, he's safe - especially with the addition of Palmerstown to the ward. even so, SF transfers could ensure his re-election even if there's a FG renaissance. Greens improved in Clondalkin in the LE and even held the seat in Lucan even though Gogarty wasn't running.
SF: Likely to poll about 4,000 here - unlikely to win a seat, but will decide the 3rd and 4th seats in all likelihood.
SWP: Expect a respectable 2,000 vote for Gino Kenny, forming a base for a successful 2009 LE campaign.
My Prediction: 1 FF (Curran), 2 PD (Harney), 3 GP (Gogarty), 4 Lab (Tuffy)
A good FG campiagn will put pressure on Tuffy and Gogarty, or even Harney if there's a strong anti Government vote, or if the likelihood of an increased turnout goes against the PDs.

[alanmcg]

Strong rumour out here is that outgoing Labour councillor Robert Dowds will look for the Labour nomination with Joanna Tuffy which could be interesting as they may end up with a 2 candidate strategy.

The ongoing rumours of Derek Keating going to FG don't go away although the man himself as absolutley denies it. I think he would lose his local Lucan cedibility as the 'community' candidate. Has the potential to damage the Greens if he runs though.

Can't imagine who the FG surprise candidate may be. Would love to know.

[hiding behind a poster]

No matter how stylish the parachuting, FG will only win this seat if Keating joins the revolution.....