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Given that we can't even predict the next three months at the moment, why not predict three years ahead instead? We may do less harm by predicting events that are obviously too difficult to forecast! The Dublin Euro election seems like a good choice.
First things first. A right candidate needs 16% FPV, after any first count surplus is distributed, to win in Dublin. A left candidate needs 12% FPV, and also needs to stay ahead of the pack. The national opinion polls in summer 2009 weren't all that different to the 2011 election outcome. FF/Greens were a bit above the final outcome, and FG/Labour were a bit below.
For Fine Gael, I expect Gay Mitchell to run again, if he doesn't become President. Mitchell will be a near-certainty to win a seat, probably to top the poll. I don't expect a second Fine Gael candidate; they know there is only one seat for them here. If Mitchell is in the Áras, Naoise Ó Muirí will become an MEP, unless they pull an Uncle Joe and reshuffle the list. Ó Muirí is well-placed to take a Dáil seat in the Northside next time. Europe would be a good platform. However, I don't know if he's a strong candidate or not. Still, you'd have to say that any non-criminal, non-corrupt person running as the sole Fine Gael candidate would win a Euro seat in Dublin next time. You could probably take a holiday in Greece during the entire campaign and get 18%. So an open seat here would be a great opportunity to position someone for the Dáil. As I wrote, though, I don't think that will happen - the only time it happens is that Mitchell loses this year's presidential election and then retires in 2014. Extremely unlikely, but ironic, would be if Pat Cox succeeded Gay Mitchell as FG MEP for Dublin! However, in the final analysis, I think the most likely set of outcomes is that Mitchell doesn't quite make it to the Presidency and continues as an MEP. Dublin voters will facilitate him in this, quite comfortably.
Labour's MEP, Proinsias de Rossa, will be 74. Given his age and his low profile since 2009, I expect him not to run again. His 2004 running mate was Ivana Bacik. She has fought two elections as a running-mate to a senior Labour figure, which allow us to pin down her personal vote. It seems to be 10%. This alone is not enough to win a seat, if the election features strong left-wing figures who can appeal to typical Labour voters. I could see Labour without a seat if this happened. Maybe this will be the election where Ivana breaks her duck. But I don't think Labour will take that risk. They will either give her a running mate or leave her in the Seanad. Labour's great success in Dublin at the general election means their bench is weak, outside the Dáil. Their only remaining target seats are Dún Laoghaire and Dublin Central, so Emer Costello is one to watch. Historically, Labour have run celebrity candidates in Dublin. We can't really predict who that could be. And by their nature, celebrity candidates appeal more to Bacik voters than to your working-class Labour voter. Names that could appeal to them include Costello and Eric Byrne, if Labour decides the Democratic Left thing has worked for them in recent Euro elections. If that happens, Ivana will take 10% and the other candidate will take 8-12%. One will elect the other.
The co-opted Socialist MEP Paul Murphy would struggle to exceed 6%. If his predecessor Joe Higgins runs again, I expect him to take 13-15% of first preferences, due to his increased visibility relative to 2006. No other ULA candidate would exceed 5%. ULA hands this seat to Sinn Féin if they don't run Joe Higgins. The balance of their vote goes to Sinn Féin and Labour.
Sinn Féin would be wise to run Eoin Ó Broin for European Parliament. Dublin Mid-West is the number one target seat for SF next time, and it will probably survive as a constituency in its current form. As of today, I think he would win 11-13%. Former MEP Mary Lou McDonald would have a better chance of winning the seat, probably 13-15%, but Sinn Féin wouldn't win the by-election. I don't think it's a good trade-off, for a party that wants to get into government once austerity is over, to send their most competent woman to the Continent. If Europe blatantly screws us over, Sinn Féin gets around 18%. If the ULA fields a delta-minus comrade as opposed to Uncle Joe, Sinn Féin gets around 16%. If both, SF could top the poll. SF versus Joe Higgins is too close to call. But since Higgins is not 100% certain to run, I think Sinn Féin are favoured to win the left seat, given their likely dominance of match-ups against other ULA candidates.
Fianna Fáil won't win a seat in Dublin next time. They don't have a strong bench. More simply, they also don't have the votes. If Martin is still in charge, he will run Averil Power, who seems less important to his domestic team than Darragh O'Brien, the other likely candidate. She is also a woman, and each of them is young and shiny. Anyway, that person will get 10-13%. At best, they will lose the last seat due to left transfers. If FF declines like it has so far this year, they will do worse. If Martin is replaced by Cuiv or someone similar, they will do worse.
The Greens can run someone if they like, they won't get more than 5%. The combined environmentalist vote was 9% last time. I don't think it matters whom they run. There are too many other strong left figures in Dublin nowadays to replicate the 1994 breakthrough.
There is no independent candidate who can synthesise enough appeal in such a competitive party race. If everyone who voted for Shane Ross backed him again, that's only 4%. Replicate that across an area with four times the population, to choose an upper limit for residents of leafy parts of Dublin, and you get 16%. It's highly unlikely that this will happen, though you'd probably get plenty of FF transfers to get you over the line. No other celebrity/economist-type candidate will beat 9%. If David Norris really really wanted it, I suppose he could run. At best, he'd take out the Labour candidates, and be in the final shake-up for a seat. But in a European election, where party and socio-economic issues do kind of matter, I don't think he has the credibility to do as well as he did in the presidential polls. Norris would get 12-15% (until the next scandal emerged!). No other independent politician has a whole-Dublin profile.
My call: FG (Mitchell), Lab (Bacik - only because there are multiple possible running mates, and she's most likely to run), SF (Ó Broin).
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Originally Posted by hammer
