It won't stop a by-election though from occuring if he went down that route which he'll have to win. My guess is that they'll run someone else alongside Murphy in the hope of boosting his/her profile for the Fingal County Council elections.Originally Posted by gijoe
Quin might sabotage Bacik to get his nephew Oisin on the ticket.
"Vote No.1 for Uncle Joe - but get baba Paul"
Would he not have to surrender his Dail seat in order to take an EP Seat if he did win or would he be able to pass it up straight away in order to keep his Dail seat?
SF you'd imagine would take a seat here,along with Labour and FG.I don't think personally the ULA would be interested enough to run Joe Higgins at the expense of the Dail and as already said,him running to win a seat for someone else would be a difficult sell.A David Williams/Shane Ross type could attract some of the nose-holding SF vote and some of the disaffected FG vote so you couldn't discount it.However if someone said in 2008 that three years later FF wouldn't have a seat in Dublin they'd be called mad and you can't predict anything with the volatility of the situation in this country.
So possible candidates are:
FG: Gay Mitchell, Cait Keane, Naoise O'Nun, John Bailey (for the craic lol)
Lab: Ivana Bacik, Oisin Quinn
ULA: Paul Murphy (probably will run him with someone else such as Brian Greene to boost his chances at getting a council seat. They've no hope in holding it.)
SF: Eoin O'Broin, Ruadhan Mac Aodhain
FF: That blond one with the fake accent, Daragh O'Brien
GP: Eamonn Ryan, Roderic O'Gorman
Most likely result: 1FG 1LAB 1SF
May as well do all the rest of the country lol.
Munster without Clare
FF: Sean Crowley
FG: Kelly, Tom Sheahan, Pat Burton
Lab: Phil Prendergast
SF: Toireasa Ferris
ULA: Mick Barry (raise his profile)
Most likely result: 1FG 1FF 1SF/LAB
An oddly shaped province:
FF: Alyward
FG Mairead McGuinness, Catherine Yore,
Lab: Nessa Childers, McGinley, John Whelan,
SF: Kathleen Funchion, John Brady, Thomas Sharkey
Most likely result: Dont know yet.
Connaught-Ulster:
FF: The Cope Gallagher, Dara Calleary, Anyone know whichever western gombeen
county councillor they have doesn't who drible when he speaks and doesnt automatically
rezone land.
FG: Jim Higgins, Tony Mulcahy
SF: Cora Harvey, Trevor O Clochartaigh, Matt Carthy
LAB: Dont have a clue which sacrificial lamb they'll select. It's their weakest area.
IND: Marian Harkin (Is she still running?)
1FG 1SF 1FF
Last edited by RepublicanSocialist1798; 26th August 2011 at 10:40 AM.
SF might also consider Martin Kenny for C/U, though I think O'Clochartaigh may be best bet. Harvey would be fine too. Carthy is as well off being on the ground in Cavan Monaghan in my view.
Ireland East think they will go for a 1 candidate strategy this time, and I would back funchion.
Munster is Toireasa's if she wants it, but if not, alternative candidates would be Quinlivan O'Leary and Cullinane
Dublin, very limited choice here in fairnes, I dont think there is anyone beyond the 2 mentioned above for SF. Daithi Doolan would be good but probably too likely to invite controversy. Críona Ó Dálaigh wouldnt be awful. But yeah probably Ó Broin for me.
Is this if Harkin doesn't run? Or can you see her running and losing?
Would SF really run 4 different candidates in 4 consecutive elections? They should be going after this one but that's not the way to do it.
I agree FF could cling on in the Wesht.
If there is a future, it will be Green.
Fair play to her, she deserves credit for that.
The boost in Labour's vote in Munster since 2009, and Fine Gael transfers, should secure this marginal seat for Labour. SF haven't advanced as much. It should be Kelly, Crowley, Prendergast.
Crowley will be pee'd off about the Presidency, but a job is a job.
McGuinness, Childers, Aylward. If Childers doesn't run, maybe John Whelan. If Aylward doesn't run, Jennifer Murnane O'Connor will run, but Kathleen Funchion (SF) will take the seat. SF have Labour's "Dublin problem" here, where all their best candidates took seats, even the long-shots. I think all the incumbents will run and win.
FG may go for a two-candidate strategy here. Michael W. D'Arcy.
Harkin is stronger here than you credit and she commands a lot of the votes of all parties. As long as Harkin runs, the others can't win on Western alienation, which hurts FF/SF most of all.
One wonders whether Gallagher will suffer from FF's collapse in Donegal. If Sinn Féin take a seat, with Ó Clochartaigh, it will come at Fianna Fáil's expense. Their other strong candidates were elected to the Dáil, so I don't think they will run for Europe. In contrast, Labour has good candidates who weren't elected to the Dáil, precisely because their support is so low, and they still have no hope of a seat.
Still, I only see one seat for FF/SF here, which is an odd situation explained by the fact that I see the two most likely candidates to win as being Harkin and the Fine Gael man (possibly Higgins, though he may retire). They should give Fidelma Healy Eames another run-out, so she can continue the crusade against computer games from Strasbourg. But she is Fine Gael's Ivana Bacik.
It depends on whether Harkin and the Cope are going to retire. Harvey would take most of the Cope's vote in Donegal should that occur. Up there i think a seat will just fall to SF. Labour are non existent and Ganley isn't taking the Eurosceptic vote like last time. I never considered Kenny but either he or O Clochartaigh could do it. Harkin could keep her seat though.
Quinlivan I've heard wants to stay working locally. Ferris IMO should be arm twisted to run.
It's strange that that's the case in Dublin, theres really only those two more than likely O'Broin. Not too sure about Ni Dhalaigh and I thought Doolin was working for DublinCitywide now.
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