Dublin West by-election

[Nick Leeson]

I couldn't find a thread for this upcoming by-election.

Anyhow, in the media they are saying it will be held in October, possibly the same day as the presidential election (this being the most sensible date I'd imagine).

Who do people think will be the likely candidates from each of the parties?

Not that it might be an indication of how the by-election my turn out, the parties' share of the vote in the 2011 general election was:

Labour 28.99%
FG 27.19%
Soc 19.03%
FF 16.59%
SF 6.11%

What was unusual about this constituency in the last election, there wasn't a serious independent candidate, so the by-election is likely to be a 5 horse race with really only FG, Lab and Soc in contention for a seat.

[Thekinghasnoclothes]

I understand there are just 10 fine Gael Members in Dublin West. Who will they nominate?

Will Eammon get the nomination?

[Nano Nagle]

Paddy Power seem to think Labour will win. Interestingly they think FF will do well too

Dublin West By Election - Irish Government Betting Odds - Paddy Power

[statsman]

My understanding is that the media say it will not happen in October?

[Nano Nagle]

My understanding is that the media say it will not happen in October?

Surely both government parties will want this election before the budget? Afterwards Lab will lose support to SP and FG may lose some votes to FF.

[statsman]

The date is 'uncertain':

Cabinet to discuss election timing, household charges - The Irish Times - Tue, Jul 26, 2011

[Ruaidhri]

Think it would be
Patrick Nulty for Labour
Kieran Dennison for Fine Gael
Ruth Coppinger for the Socialist Party
Conor Lenihan for Fianna Fáil
Paul Donnelly or Eoin O Broin for Sinn Féin.

Of these I imagine that Patrick Nulty of Labour will win. He will likely get a few hundred more votes than Coppinger and because this area is so much more left-wing than right-wing I would imagine that it will be the left-wing candidate with the most votes that will win this election ahead of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail/

[Thekinghasnoclothes]

Think it would be
Patrick Nulty for Labour
Kieran Dennison for Fine Gael
Ruth Coppinger for the Socialist Party
Conor Lenihan for Fianna Fáil
Paul Donnelly or Eoin O Broin for Sinn Féin.

Eamon Coughlan will run for Fine Gael and there is nothing th e 10 constituency members can do about it

Of these I imagine that Patrick Nulty of Labour will win. He will likely get a few hundred more votes than Coppinger and because this area is so much more left-wing than right-wing I would imagine that it will be the left-wing candidate with the most votes that will win this election ahead of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail/

[statsman]

Think it would be
Patrick Nulty for Labour
Kieran Dennison for Fine Gael
Ruth Coppinger for the Socialist Party
Conor Lenihan for Fianna Fáil
Paul Donnelly or Eoin O Broin for Sinn Féin.

Of these I imagine that Patrick Nulty of Labour will win. He will likely get a few hundred more votes than Coppinger and because this area is so much more left-wing than right-wing I would imagine that it will be the left-wing candidate with the most votes that will win this election ahead of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail/

I doubt Conor L will run.

[FakeViking]

I doubt Conor L will run.

If he does, all his opponents will need to do is to replay sections of the "Dogfight" documentary!