Dublin West by-election

[Nano Nagle]

Averil Power seems to everywhere. I wouldn't be suprised if FF threw her in as their candidate.

[Sierra]

Patrick Nulty for Labour
Kieran Dennison for Fine Gael
Ruth Coppinger for the Socialist Party
Conor Lenihan for Fianna Fáil
Paul Donnelly or Eoin O Broin for Sinn Féin.

I cannot see Joan Burton being too comfortable with the prospect of helping Nutly get elected in a by-election only to have to go head to head with him in a subsequent General Election where Labour will be unable to return more than one TD. Should be interesting to see if the Labour machine in the constituency fully gets behind Nutly.

Very much doubt that Conor Lenihan will get the thumbs up to run.

[Red_93]

According to SUnday Times Lenihan is not wanted by the leadership, who want a young person to run.

[TimBuckII]

Think it would be
Patrick Nulty for Labour
Kieran Dennison for Fine Gael
Ruth Coppinger for the Socialist Party
Conor Lenihan for Fianna Fáil
Paul Donnelly or Eoin O Broin for Sinn Féin.

Of these I imagine that Patrick Nulty of Labour will win. He will likely get a few hundred more votes than Coppinger and because this area is so much more left-wing than right-wing I would imagine that it will be the left-wing candidate with the most votes that will win this election ahead of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail/

No it isn't. Many votes for the 4 elected at the GE were personel votes and caracter based. It's a new ball game for the for this election.

Burton will not want Nulty to run and Higgins will not want Coppinger to run.

[Donnachadha]

Personally can see Clr Mags Murray, formerly of the PD's running for FF. She's popular in the Castleknock district where Brian Lenihan was based and could see her running a strong campaign. With Nulty, Dennison and Coppinger running it should be an interesting campaign.

[Thekinghasnoclothes]

Personally can see Clr Mags Murray, formerly of the PD's running for FF. She's popular in the Castleknock district where Brian Lenihan was based and could see her running a strong campaign. With Nulty, Dennison and Coppinger running it should be an interesting campaign.

You might run Mags but you won't get your expenses

[FutureTaoiseach]

Paddy Power seem to think Labour will win. Interestingly they think FF will do well too

Dublin West By Election - Irish Government Betting Odds - Paddy Power

No sitting govt has won a by-election since 1981-2, so there is reason for doubting that the govt will hold on. But then these are different times.

[Ruaidhri]

No it isn't. Many votes for the 4 elected at the GE were personel votes and caracter based. It's a new ball game for the for this election.

Burton will not want Nulty to run and Higgins will not want Coppinger to run.

ah there's a bit more to it than just personal votes.Some area's are just electorally left-wing or right-wing. How else can you explain the fact that the left do very well throughout Dublin but dreadfully in Connaught and Ulster. Personality does play a part but not as much as the demographics of the area.

Why would Joe Higgins not want Coppinger to run?

[Stating the Obvious]

With FG/Lab on 55-60% in Dublin, it would take an extraordinary opposition candidate to beat them. Even Conor Lenihan wouldn't.

People seem to forget that Brian Lenihan Jr. (RIP) very nearly lost the by-election to fill his fathers seat, beating Joe Higgins by only 300 votes - and this was a time of huge FF popularity, when they were routinely at 45% in opinion polls

[Panopticon]

With FG/Lab on 55-60% in Dublin, it would take an extraordinary opposition candidate to beat them. Even Conor Lenihan wouldn't.

People seem to forget that Brian Lenihan Jr. (RIP) very nearly lost the by-election to fill his fathers seat, beating Joe Higgins by only 300 votes - and this was a time of huge FF popularity, when they were routinely at 45% in opinion polls

I think we have had this discussion before. Fianna Fáil was appalling at by-elections back in the day, even though they were indeed routinely at 40-45% in opinion polls. Dublin West (1996) was their first by-election victory for 12 years. This is because they were transfer-repellent during the Haughey/Reynolds years, when elections were FF versus everyone else. The consensus was that small left-wing parties like DL were better-able to exploit the local nature of by-elections and to attract anti-FF transfers. So people thought that Joe Higgins would win the by-election, and he nearly did. Lenihan was not a particularly weak candidate, in that historical context.