Dublin North-East: The Count

[Libero]

FIRST COUNT

Seats: just 3

Quota 8720

Brady (FF) 6861
Broughan (LAB) 5294
Flanagan (FG) 4433
Healy (GP) 2349
O'Toole (SF) 4661
Redmond (PD) 749
Sweeney (FG) 3529
Woods (FF) 7003

So much for Woods being a goner - he's topped the poll!

Once again, an astonishing performance for Fianna Fáil.

Fine Gael may be ruing running two candidates if it all goes 2FF and 1LAB.

It's just not working out for Larry O'Toole, like so many Shinners...

[Likely Lad]

I'm utterly stunned by these results in DNE (also along with pretty everywhere else) but especially here in my own constituency

Woods has done NOTHING in 5 years for the constituency and tops the poll!
Brady hardly does much more either and nearly tops the poll
Tommy Broughan works his ass off for 5 years and goes down in first preferences
Larry O'Toole likewise works his ass off and gains a mediocre 3%
Fine Gael increase their vote by 7% and probably wont gain a seat

Fine Gael's strategy looks like it has blown up in their faces. Sweeney was their high profile no.1 guy and Flanagan outpolls him! I just can't see Flanagan getting enough transfers, O'Toole's transfers should secure the 2nd FF seat

Madness

[Likely Lad]

Redmond and Healy eliminated. Not enough transfers from them have floated towards FG. Looks like 2 x FF and 1 Lab but Broughan may not sail home as easily as anticipated

[Likely Lad]

Broughan in serious trouble.... may be gone

[Cdebru]

If the 2 FFers were gone I would fancy broughan to take 800 more of O'tooles distribution than FG but with the 2 FFers still in and Flanagan from the same end of the constituency as O'toole

Hopefully Broughan will make it since Larry is gone

[Cdebru]

actually just looking at it now it might be Woods or Brady that does not make it

You would expect O'Tooles votes to be favour Broughan he is only 500 behind Brady

with

[Likely Lad]

Looking at O'Toole's transfer patterns from 2002 Broughan should be safe with Flanagan the likely loser. O'Toole transfers were about 45% for Broughan, 22% for Brady and 10% for Doyle of FG. Wow it going to close for all. I'll get my calculator out now.

[Likely Lad]

Broughan should gain at least 1,800
Brady should gain at least 1,000 as should Woods
Flanagan will expect at least 400 but as much as 600

I don't think Flanagan will get enough transfers from O'Toole. May be short by about 200 behind Brady or Woods. Still close.

[Cdebru]

It will be tight then if Flanagan takes 600 and brady takes less than 1000 it will be close SFs working class vote should favour FF but flanagan is locally closer to O'Tooles stronghold

[braz]

Surprise in Dublin North-East as Terence Flanagan shades Martin Brady to join Michael Woods and Tommy Broughan in the Dail.

Does this mean that one of our contributors is due for elevation ?