FG poll in Dublin South East confirms Lab poll on the ground - 2 Lab 1 FG & 1 FF

[David Cochrane]

Yesterday i wrote up a post based on dotski's blogpost about Labour's polling in Dublin South East, the amount of attention it's gotten on the site (and off the site) isn't unusual for Dublin South East discussions on Politics.ie.

This morning, I was sent by two people separately the results of a recent Fine Gael poll from Dublin South East. I was given figures too. The FGers I spoke to both told me that this poll shows the same people getting elected as a poll FG did four weeks ago, and is similar to the Labour poll - in that it shows the same people getting elected. Quinn is expected to top the poll, which is a far cry from previous elections - when party leader he was the last elected in the constituency in 2002.

The FG polls done last week and a month ago show Quinn topping the poll, bringing in his running-mate Humphreys on strong transfers, with Lucinda Creighton (FG) and Chris Andrews (FF) taking the other two seats.

Chris Andrews      Fianna Fail     18%
Lucinda Creighton  Fine Gael       19%
John Gormley       Green            8%
Kevin Humphreys    Labour          10%
Eoghan Murphy      Fine Gael        4%
Ruairi Quinn       Labour          31%

I've spoken to someone in FF and they have said a similar poll done by them about 7 weeks ago show the same candidates getting elected.

Chewing the cud on where transfers go, it seems that Labour transfers are significantly higher to Creighton than Murphy. The reason for this, it has been suggested by those who provided the numbers, is that Labour tranfers to FG are going to the anti-Kenny candidate (Creighton) and not the pro-Kenny one (Murphy).

I'll leave that up to you folks to qualify and discuss.

[Reality bites]

Chewing the cud on where transfers go, it seems that Labour transfers are significantly higher to Creighton than Murphy. The reason for this, it has been suggested by those who provided the numbers, is that Labour tranfers to FG are going to the anti-Kenny candidate (Creighton) and not the pro-Kenny one (Murphy).

I'll leave that up to you folks to qualify and discuss.

I would assume its more to do with Lucinda being more established than Eoghan Murphy and that in opinion polls of constituencies before a GE is called sitting TDs benefit more.

I also understand that the Labour poll showed a much more even divide of the FG vote split between the two candidates

[borntorum]

FF would have to be happy to retain its seat in DSE, probably the most volatile and media-reliant constituency in the country.

It is ironic, as others noted on the related Labour thread, that the party of the workers appears to be set to become the largest party in Dublins 2 & 4.

[Simbo67]

I would agree, the average punter may know that Lucinda was agin Kenny but they probably won't know that Murphy was pro-Kenny. Its looks more like the average punter on the ground never heard of Murphy.

[flavirostris]

I can't believe Gormley is on 8%, thought he would be much lower

[borntorum]

I would agree, the average punter may know that Lucinda was agin Kenny but they probably won't know that Murphy was pro-Kenny. Its looks more like the average punter on the ground never heard of Murphy.

But why would yer average Lab voter transfer to the right-wing Creighton?

It's probably the case that many of the prospective Lab voters would have favoured FG during the Fitzgerald so-called 'social democratic' days. I'd say if FG had a leader more pleasing to the Dublin middle classes a lot of the DSE Lab vote could shift back to the other main opposition party

[Future]

Not too much of a change in the Andrews vote from the laste election on those numbers.

Still think if FG had a different 2nd candidate to Murphy that a 2nd seat is just about achievable.

[RahenyFG]

[URL="http://www.politics.ie/dublin/141906-labour-poll-dublin-se-shows-quinn-humphreys-creighton-andrews-taking-seats.html"]

Chris Andrews      Fianna Fail     18%
Lucinda Creighton  Fine Gael       19%
John Gormley       Green            8%
Kevin Humphreys    Labour          10%
Eoghan Murphy      Fine Gael        4%
Ruairi Quinn       Labour          31%

.

Interesting that the Fianna Fail vote is holding up okay in this district. Chris 'Merge FF and FG' Andrews close enough to Creighton of Fine Gael. Glad to see Gormley not getting re-elected, he deserves it!

[Simbo67]

But why would yer average Lab voter transfer to the right-wing Creighton?

It's probably the case that many of the prospective Lab voters would have favoured FG during the Fitzgerald so-called 'social democratic' days. I'd say if FG had a leader more pleasing to the Dublin middle classes a lot of the DSE Lab vote could shift back to the other main opposition party

The ABFF trumps the right wing/left wing split. She's a high profile ABFFer. If I were in Donegal I would be giving Doherty a number two after my FG vote.
I think the real issue is that Murphy hasn't made enough inroads so he's getting swamped by the big name.

[Asparagus]

I can't believe Gormley is on 8%, thought he would be much lower

Lucinda Creighton and Chris Andrews are on the ballot sheet.

So its not the best choice if you are not a Ruairi Quinn fan