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About LinkBacksAfter winning in Pembroke, Lucinda Creighton seems likely to be on the Fine Gael ticket come the next General Election, either on her own or with Brian Gillen. Can she take Michael McDowell's seat?
After winning in Pembroke, Lucinda Creighton seems likely to be on the Fine Gael ticket come the next General Election, either on her own or with Brian Gillen. Can she take Michael McDowell's seat?
What about Eoin Ryans seat? I am sure that is no longer safe. I also expect Daithi Doolan will be targeting John Gormleys seat.
Yeah that's true. Doolan would also be challenging for the old Ryan seat or for the Labour seat. Could be major changes here next time out. What odds on Fg getting Garret out of retirement and pulling off a Fitzgerald-Creighton 1-2?What about Eoin Ryans seat? I am sure that is no longer safe. I also expect Daithi Doolan will be targeting John Gormleys seat.OK, not much, but it's always a possibility! :P
What's for certain is that FG are reborn in Dub SE - an amazing result for them.
Creighton and McCartan increased the FG vote considerably.
I would be amazed if Creighton didn't get a Dail nomination next time - but she will have strong competition from the impressive Brian Gillen.
Also, it's more than likely that McDowell's PD vote is safe - as Wendy Hederman got a good vote and the third seat.
Ryan's seat looks to be in serious jeopardy - his annointewd heir, Chris Andrews, had a poor result last Friday and FF are surely doubting his ability to hold the seat in 2007.
FG will get back their seat in '07 - just a question of who ??
look to keegan in SEIC who followed in ryan's footsteps to the %age despite the strong SF threat to contest the FF seat.
should there not be a ff candidate in SEIC then FF will be giving up the ghost in DSE as keegans vote will slide across to Doolan.
i'm biased here but i believe that this is one of the few FF successes nationwide to hold on here and copy Eoin's performance when he ran as a TD in SEIC in the locals in '99.
Not so sure DD can win a seat though. SF got about 2700 in Dublin SE the same as in the 2002 GE. 75% of their vote comes from SEIC so I dont think the numbers are there unless they can improve in the other two wards.
yes but wouldn't FF's vote slide across anyway to both doolan and possibly humphreys (if he's running) .. ... by which i mean that it seemed that it was a personal vote that keegan conjured up which would be lost to anyone other than keegan.
[Edited on 15/6/2004 by revereie]
Reverie is correct Keegan has to be the candidate. Was surprised with the result as many had written him off. Andrews loss was the surprise as Pembroke shows it is FG country again.
"Everyone hates Fianna Fáil except the electorate."
Unattributed correspondent, 1960s.
Dunno me'self. The McDowell seat historically is far from safe - he's lost it before - and the fact that the PD candidate did poorly in the McDowell bailiwck must be worrying for him. The Hederman victory would seem to be partly due to a Hederman vote rather than an explicit PD vote in Pembroke and a lot of her LE votes could swing to FG for the GE.Also, it's more than likely that McDowell's PD vote is safe - as Wendy Hederman got a good vote and the third seat.
Early prediction then for 2007
Greens 1
Labour 0
Sinn Fein 1
Fianna Fail 0
Prog Dem 1
Fine Gael 1
Im gonna call it thus. Ryan will stay in Europe at the next election, but FF wont find a replacement. Keegan or Andrews will be the probable runner but I doubt either will take the seat.
The FF swing to SF will continue, and Daithi Doolan will win the seat at the expense of Labour. Greens will hang on in there, the leftist vote will favour SF (plus some from FF) and the Greens, remember Ruairi Quinn is to retire in 07
PDS will hold on, although I dont think McDowell will top the poll but he should hang on in there
FG to get one back, although I think that in the end it will be Lucinda who will pip Gillen
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