Will Sinn Féin win 2 seats in Donegal

[Jack_Flash]

Future T. I think they have a better chance in SW, but if McDaid decides to stand in NE then they have good chance of taking Blaney's seat. If McDaid does not stand, Blaney will survive, SF are too far off a quota and unless they are ahead of Blaney there is no one that they will get a significant transfer from. In Donegal SW I think that SF will take the FG seat, FG have made a hash of it and should have McGinley standing, Slowey has no chance, and FG are having trouble getting anyone of any significance to stand along with him.

This idea that SF are a shoe in for the next general election in Donegal SW is ludicrous. Their candidate has performed poorly as a councillor and any dog on the street can tell you that. In fact, and I've heard this from some of his own people, some of his own organisation are becoming increasingly fed up with his performance. He is not a high profile candidate by any standards and will face a tough battle to come anywhere near taking a seat. The question is whether he has the stamina for that battle?

[upthepoll]

Under normal circumstances Sinn Fein would not be taking a seat in DSW, but Fine gael are handing it to them on a plate, McGinley was shafted don't let anyone tell you different, and they are swapping a sitting TD with a complete unknown, Gweedore will not vote for Slowey, hence Doherty will take the third seat, if he does anything at all.

[Cormac Donaghey]

This idea that SF are a shoe in for the next general election in Donegal SW is ludicrous. Their candidate has performed poorly as a councillor and any dog on the street can tell you that. In fact, and I've heard this from some of his own people, some of his own organisation are becoming increasingly fed up with his performance. He is not a high profile candidate by any standards and will face a tough battle to come anywhere near taking a seat. The question is whether he has the stamina for that battle?

What planet are you living on?

Pearse Doherty is not a high profile candidate He polled over 65,000 votes in the 2004 EU election. Over 20,000 of those votes were in Donegal. Cop yourself on.

You may wish to spin a position but it doesn't wash. Pearse Doherty has worked extremely hard on the ground since his election. He has championed many key issues in the county and is a strong media performer. Every serious political pundit, both locally and nationally has him pencilled in to take a seat. I believed he had a great chance as it was but with the the FG shennanigans in DSW, I believe him to be virtually a cert to win the seat. Just ask the FG national Director of Elections.

I doubt your talking to the wrong dogs on the street.

[KeithM]

Donegal NE is too early to call as we don't know McDaid's status as of now. If he stands on the FF ticket, then I think Blaney might lose out to eith SF FG or Harte (at the moment I'm leaning towards SF), if he stands as and independent, then I think all three current TDs might get back (sympathy for McDaid), but it's hard to call.

DSW is easier. FG are in serious trouble and it's 2 FF and 1 SF for me.

[upthepoll]

KEITH M WROTE

If he stands on the FF ticket, then I think Blaney might lose out to eith SF FG or Harte (at the moment I'm leaning towards SF), if he stands as and independent, then I think all three current TDs might get back (sympathy for McDaid), but it's hard to call.

Do you think McDaid will be elected at Blaney's expense if he stands for FF, but both Blaney and McDaid will be elected if McDaid is Independent? Explain

[KeithM]

KEITH M WROTE

If he stands on the FF ticket, then I think Blaney might lose out to eith SF FG or Harte (at the moment I'm leaning towards SF), if he stands as and independent, then I think all three current TDs might get back (sympathy for McDaid), but it's hard to call.

Do you think McDaid will be elected at Blaney's expense if he stands for FF, but both Blaney and McDaid will be elected if McDaid is Independant? Explain

We've had several examples in recent elections where a candidate doesn't make a party ticket, stands as an independent and wins a seat. JHR is probably the most famous. What you get is a local "sympathy factor" kicking in and that can be more of a benefit than being on the party ticket.

For example in Clare Breen stood as an independent and got elected, something he probbly wouldnt have achieved on the FF ticket.

McDaid could benefit from this sympathy if not selected by FF, and his great geographic location will mean he will cut right across Harte's vote. WAtch this constituency. There are many possible outcomes.

[MacCoise]

The importance of winning 2 out of 6 this time is that it make easier to get 2 out of a single 5-seater in the future. I have no idea whether its likely or not though. Judging by the comments it seems there is a chance.

[upthepoll]

Keith M- On what basis can McDaid expect sympathy, he announced he had lost his appetite for politics and would not stand again, therby paving the way for Blaney's return to FF-this is important, remember Blaney would not be back in Fianna Fail had McDaid not declared his intention not to contest in 2007.
Secondly McDaid has hardly shown his face in Leinster House for the past 2 years, which is viewed by many as treating the people who elected him, with utter contempt. He has lost his ministerial status and therefore has less influence on behalf of the Constituency, he has been convicted on a drunken driving charge, causing embarrassment to the FF party in Donegal and to the Government particularly as he once had responsibility for road safety. Hardly the stuff for a sympathy vote.

[Inishowen]

Have to agree with Upthepoll. McDaid will never be a minister again, most FF people outside Donegal look at him as a guy who had his chance in cabinet and didnt shine so he's yesterdays man. FF people in Donegal NE realise that this is the situation too. Blaney doesn't strike me as having the ability for ministerial office so that leaves Keaveny the only real prospect of a junior minister in the constituency after the next election despite the fact that she comes from the 'wrong' end of the constituency. People on the ground may feel a little sympathy for a man brought down by drink, but that wont translate into sending him back to Dublin to live out his political life as a less than fully committed backbencher.