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  1. #1
    Bertie's Hat Bertie's Hat is offline
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    What will be the "no" margin in DL in the abortion referendum

    As we all know, Donegal has a habit of rejecting referenda and is known as one of the spots of the country with more traditional values (in some ways). The people are also rather stubborn compared to those in other counties. The same sex marriage referendum was narrowly passed by the Donegal electorate, in Donegal South West only by 29 votes.

    Therefore I think it is safe to say that DL will vote resoundingly "NO" to the proposal on May 25th. The question is just by what margin, I think it could be around 65:35 in favour of "NO".

    Any thoughts?

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  2. #2
    commonman commonman is offline
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    I believe that No will win, i did not even make up my mind yet, i just have that gut feeling.
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  3. #3
    sadmal sadmal is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bertie's Hat View Post
    As we all know, Donegal has a habit of rejecting referenda and is known as one of the spots of the country with more traditional values (in some ways). The people are also rather stubborn compared to those in other counties. The same sex marriage referendum was narrowly passed by the Donegal electorate, in Donegal South West only by 29 votes.

    Therefore I think it is safe to say that DL will vote resoundingly "NO" to the proposal on May 25th. The question is just by what margin, I think it could be around 65:35 in favour of "NO".

    Any thoughts?

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    Do you know what it was first time around in 1983 for the Yes side? I'd say it be similar for the No side this time.
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  4. #4
    flavirostris flavirostris is offline
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    Donegal NE Yes vote in 2015 was 52%, so No vote this time should be well over 60%. I'll take a stab at 67%. It's one of the safest No's in the country
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  5. #5
    Bertie's Hat Bertie's Hat is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by commonman View Post
    I believe that No will win, i did not even make up my mind yet, i just have that gut feeling.
    I think so too, it will not pass


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  6. #6
    Bertie's Hat Bertie's Hat is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by sadmal View Post
    Do you know what it was first time around in 1983 for the Yes side? I'd say it be similar for the No side this time.
    82% in both Donegal constituencies voted in favour of 8th in 1983, according to Wikipedia.

    Just looking at the constituency results there are huge variances in the vote across constituencies. As low as 42% voted yes in Dun Laoghaire, parts of Dublin in 40s, Kildare and Wicklow 50s. Many rural areas in 60s and 70s

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  7. #7
    automaticforthepeople automaticforthepeople is offline
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    I thought DL meant Dun Laoghaire! If there's a no margin there, then the game is up! That said, when the dirt gets going to turn people off expect the real gap between Yes and No to narrow considerably.

    The no campaign are keeping their powder dry and now saying too much now. I presume Pearse Doherty will be out on the media all the time hammering home his party's policy, once it's decided in June, that is.
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  8. #8
    Fats_Portnoy Fats_Portnoy is offline

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    turnout is going to be critical. I just don't see young people on message they they were with SSM. I think the youth vote won't materialise on the day.
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  9. #9
    flavirostris flavirostris is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fats_Portnoy View Post
    turnout is going to be critical. I just don't see young people on message they they were with SSM. I think the youth vote won't materialise on the day.
    Repeal definitely has the hipster vote. Every hipster in Ireland has the little grey 'Repeal 8' badge. But can hipsters be relied upon to turn up at the polls the same way 70 year old women can ?
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  10. #10
    Bertie's Hat Bertie's Hat is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by flavirostris View Post
    Repeal definitely has the hipster vote. Every hipster in Ireland has the little grey 'Repeal 8' badge. But can hipsters be relied upon to turn up at the polls the same way 70 year old women can ?
    Definitely not, there are not enough of them. Even a lot of non hipsters in their 20s and 30s do not vote

    I don't trust the opinion polls to tell the story

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