RedC poll for PaddyPower : SF's Doherty to take seat in Donegal South West byelection

[David Cochrane]

A poll conducted by RedC Research for Paddy Power shows that Sinn Fein's Pearse Doherty is on target to take the seat in the Donegal South West by-election which takes place tomorrow week.

The RedC poll conducted between 12th and 16th of November polled 510 people over 18 randomly and shows that Doherty is on target to take 40% of the first preferences. Fianna Fail's Brian O’Domhnaill is on target to take 19% of first preferences, followed by Barry O'Neill on 15% and Frank McBrearty on 14%. RedC have pointed out that after transfers have taken place, McBrearty overtakes O'Neill.

Pearse Doherty     SF   40%
Brian O’Domhnaill  FF   19%
Barry O'Neill      FG   15%
Frank McBrearty    Lab  14%

RedC says that the margin of error is 4.4% at 95% confidence level.

As a result, and as noted earlier by Politics.ie users, Paddy Power have shortened the odds on Doherty taking the seat from 1/5 to 1/8.

Latest paddypower.com Betting

1/8   Pearse Doherty (SF)         
9/2   Brian O'Domhnaill (FF)     
9/1   Barry O'Neill (FG)         
14/1  Frank McBrearty Jr. (Lab)     
40/1  Thomas Pringle (Ind)         
50/1  Anne Sweeney         
150/1 Green Candidate

Best Taoiseach after Next General Election

Irrespective of which party you support, which of the main party leaders do you believe would make the best Taoiseach for Ireland after the next general election?

Eamon Gilmore  46%
Enda Kenny     18%
Brian Cowen    13%
None of these  13%
Don't know     10%

Main Findings and Observations by RedC

• Senator Pearse Doherty looks as if he will win the by-election to be held next week in Donegal South West by some margin, taking 40% of the first preference vote in today's Paddy Power/RED C by-election poll.
  
• Brian O’Domhnaill takes the next highest share of the vote in the poll, securing 19% of the first preference vote. However, relatively poor second preference transfers suggest even after the count he is unlikely to trouble the Sinn Fein candidate.
  
• Barry O’Neill, Fine Gael and Frank McBrearty Junior, Labour; both secure a similar share of first preference vote in the constituency at 15% and 14% respectively, but initial analyses of transfers suggests McBrearty will end up ahead.
  
• While the current by-election may influence voters choices somewhat, when asked about a general election Sinn Fein again do well, securing 31% of the first preference vote, an increase of 10% when compared to their performance in 2007.
  
• Labour also make good gains in the constituency in terms of a general election, with their first preference share ahead of their by-election showing at 18%. This represents a significant increase of 15% share since 2007.
  
• This surge in support for Labour is perhaps influenced by voters preferred choice for Taoiseach, in which Eamonn Gilmore is preferred by almost half (46%) of all voters in the constituency.
  
• Fianna Fail are the big losers in terms of a potential general election showing, with a 1st preference share of just 19%, down 32% since the last general election. While part of this may be due to the fact that Mary Coughlan is not of course involved in the
  by-election it doesn’t bode well for the party should an election be called in the near future.
  
• Fine Gael may be disappointed to only take 25% share, a modest increase of just 2% since 2007, and this may persuade them to only run one candidate at the next election, as the two candidate approach appears to split the vote somewhat.
  
• This relatively weak showing by Fine Gael, despite the collapse of the Fianna Fail vote, like Labour could somewhat be attributed to voters preferred choice of Taoiseach, where Enda Kenny is preferred by only 1 in 5 (18%) of all voters in the constituency.

When you look at first and second preference, you can see that Doherty is incredibly strong on 2nd prefs, almost 1/5 of second preferences go to him. Frank McBrearty seems marginally more transfer friendly on 2nd preferences. Just 10% of second prefs go to Fianna Fail.



So what if this was a poll for the General Election, with 3 seats up for grabs, it appears to me that i would be Doherty (SF), McBreaty (Lab) and a dogfight between FG and FF for the last seat, could the Tanaiste lose her seat?

[rockofcashel]

Replicated on polling day, that would be an absolutely seismic result for SF and Pearse.. and a huge kick in the goolies for FF.. if they are at 20% in Donegal, they are absolutely screwed to the wall countrywide

[callmedave]

f*******ing hell!!!

[Gimpanzee]

Phew.... maybe there is a glimmer of hope for us.

[meriwether]

Replicated on polling day, that would be an absolutely seismic result for SF and Pearse.. and a huge kick in the goolies for FF.. if they are at 20% in Donegal, they are absolutely screwed to the wall countrywide

Yes, and bad result for FG, hopefully reflecting a bad candidate only. Hopefully. Good or bad for Labour? Hard to know actually. 14% isn't Gilmore gale, but then again, 14% in DG must mean much more in other constituencies with better candidates.

I know less now than I did before.

[The Dude]

Nearly 1 out of 5 people in Donegal SW would still, after all that has happened, vote for Fianna Fáil.

The IMF are literally on their way to Dublin and 19% of people asked backed a Fianna Fáil candidate.

This country is screwed.

[clunk]

Wow, the forthcoming General Election will be fun. Very much ABFF.

[holymoley]

So any suggestions on what to call this huge growth in support to sinn fein, along the lines of the gilmore gale? My first thoughts are of an "Adams Ambush" but that mightn't be the most politically correct phraseology.

[Chrisco]

Nearly 2 out of 5 people in Donegal SW would still, after all that has happened, vote for Fianna Fáil.

The IMF are literally on their way to Dublin and 19% of people asked backed a Fianna Fáil candidate.

This country is screwed.

Is it yourself Minister Lenihan?

[Conchubhairb]

Given how appalling FMB has been on the meejah, very surprising. That percentage of the vote would be enough to get him a seat in a GE, unfortunately.