RedC poll for PaddyPower : SF's Doherty to take seat in Donegal South West byelection

[wee slabber]

Jaysus - if it works out like that on the day I'll have a bottle of red ready to go! Looks like Pearse is one of Adams' "Shinner Winners"!

[theoutsider]

Small sample with only 500 or so people. Still, even with such a small sample it adds to the momentum for Pearse.

Speaking from experience 500 is a good size for a constituency poll.

Surpised McBrearty doing so well gioven his media turns but if FF only 19% in their hartland, the next GE will be a bloodbath for FF

[tribade]

1 in 5, not 2. Still shockingly high when you consider the mess we're in.

Have to say i'm shocked at the margin between Doherty and O'Donnell, to be honest I expected Dohery to be shading O'Donnell by about 4% or so, not 21%. That really is WOW

[Red_93]

Amazing FF can still command so much support given the state of the country

Given they used to get half the vote their, it's quite startling.

Fantastic for SF, good for labour, bad for FF and shockingly poor for FG under the circumstances.

[chrisman]

If Sinn Fein get circa 40% they will be tempted to run a second candidate in the G.E. I wonder what the current polling would be in Donegal N.E. and for that matter C/M

[peadarmc]

Wow that is surprising. I did not expect SF to be at 40% and FF to be as low as 19%. Election day itself will show that FF's vote will be mostly concentrated in ballot boxes in o'domhnaills area, watch this space! But 19% is genuinely lower than id thought!

[Rocky]

Yes, and bad result for FG, hopefully reflecting a bad candidate only. Hopefully. Good or bad for Labour? Hard to know actually. 14% isn't Gilmore gale, but then again, 14% in DG must mean much more in other constituencies with better candidates.

I know less now than I did before.

Constituency polls are also notoriously unreliable. Remember the poll about a week before the Meath By-Election that said FF would win that seat comfortably.

[clonmullin]

New avenue for Paddy Power ... makes sense for them to conduct their own polls. It gives them a lot for information plus, in what is always a consideration for Paddy Power, cheap publicity.

Would be very interesting if they continued it into the general election (I imagine they might for high profile constituencies) - we would have an independent gauge on how constituencies are actually behaving as oppossed to party polls.

[pinemartin]

Nearly 1 out of 5 people in Donegal SW would still, after all that has happened, vote for Fianna Fáil.

The IMF are literally on their way to Dublin and 19% of people asked backed a Fianna Fáil candidate.

This country is screwed.

that is only the people that will admit voting for FF, lots would be too embarrassed to do so but will vote for them in the privacy of the booth on election day.

Donegal is a big FF county , don't expect these types of polls from other more urban parts of the country. FF`will be wiped out there.

[Red_93]

Surpised McBrearty doing so well gioven his media turns but if FF only 19% in their hartland, the next GE will be a bloodbath for FF

Indeed, but I'm not sure there's too many in DSW who'd be watching VB on any given night, or even who'd know much about the bond markets.