46% in a redC Poll for Eamon Gilmore is fantastic for Labour. Not that I am suggesting it will (or won't) convert to Labour votes. With it being a choice of Taoiseach rather than Leader confidence question though you have to wonder.
On the figures for the by-election it seems almost a given that Doherty will take the seat, and if people are transferring on a large scale we might see McBrearty slide into second place (be it far behind Doherty). However it isn't likely;
FF coming second here imo.
Onwards to the General Election...
If we assume that:
SF vote takes a knock at the Generals due to Adams-based farce of a national campaign by the party;
FF vote increases by about 3-5% (this is a by-election, so the vote is low, and the "shy"
FF factor MIGHT be prevalent at this point, BUT this poll was done before the IMF/EU/UK bailouts were discussed);
FG vote is higher, a bit, than it was at the last Generals, since McGinley is a far stronger candidate than O'Neill, and rural
FG TDs are the ones bringing in increases under Inda;
lab vote may go either way, up or down, depending on how well Frank and Eamon do in Donegal next time out, and;
others votes fall as the spectacle of a by-election propelling them into the media spotlight won't be there next time out,
then we're looking at a situation where
FG,
SF and
FF are all safe as houses so long as none of them runs two candidates.
FG unlikely to do this, as are
SF, but
FF at the last Euros showed that they have no concept of how to cut their losses.
If
FF were to run two, they'd be fighting with McBrearty (10 - 17%) for the second seat mereckons.
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