Doherty Raging Hot Favourite for Donegal South West

[TonyB]

Well, ten days to polling day in Donegal South West and the odds are certainly interesting. Boylesports are offering a slamdunk on Pearse Doherty at 1/3, while second favourite Brian O Domhnaill languishes at 11/4, marginally ahead of the nice man from Fine Gael, Barry O'Neill, at 9/2. The Bull McBrearty follows at a distant 9/1, and independent Thomas Pringle is given a chance of 14/1.

Meanwhile, Paddy Power is more circumspect about Doherty's chances, but still makes him a 2/5 favourite, with O'Domhnaill pegged at 7/4. They seem to think it a two horse race, with O'Neill way off at 9/1, McBrearty 11/1, and - as they say in the trade - 33/1 bar those.

Interesting discrepancy between the two. Doherty might get more transfers than a "regular" Sinn Fein candidate, given his profile and his contribution to democracy in the High Court. But he'll still struggle on transfers. He won't get much out of Fine Gael, though MacBrearty's transfers should benefit him more than O'Domhnaill.

Is this race over before it begins? Or are the whispers in the dark corridors of Fianna Fáil plotting something the bookies know nothing about? Even The Irish Times gives the dark side a fighting chance.

[MacCoise2]

just bluff and bluster (and a bit of money- they're still well off you know) from the gombeens

[SlickWilly]

I think he will be elected, maybe without reaching the quota! It will be interesting to see how many transfers, he will get from the blueshirts and fake socialists. Even though I have called for the reintroduction of s.31, this is a time possibly the only time ever, I would vote for a party, that was upto its kneck in sectarian blood! Quite simply the clowns in government have to go! Where are the ecology party of Ireland in the by-election, or have they even more clearly gone from green to yellow?

[QuizMaster]

Every vox pop I've heard has been very good news for O'Domhnall.
I would not write off the effin effers just yet.

[Pat Mc Larnon]

Only locals will have a real idea of the residual FF vote. It may well be one of those constituencies that votes FF no matter what.
SF have made massive progress in this constituency and to be talked of as favourites in a three seater where as recently as 2002 the party got circa 10% is a remarkable achievement.

[CorkHurler]

Boylesports dont have a great record of setting odds on elections. I got 12/1 from them on Joe Higgins in the European elections and treated myself to a nice bottle of chateauneuf du pape after collecting my winnings. (Boylesports dont know that much about setting odds on horse racing either and prefer to feed punters a diet of lotto numbers and cartoon dog racing).

[Social Conscience]

Is it true FF have a double majority when they won this seat in 2007?

Its great to see how the worm has turned.

[Aindriu]

Fianna FAIL are backing on winning this so they can cling to power until 2012

God help us all if the good people of Donegal South West behave like good little Fianna FAIL sheeple and vote the Fail(u)er in

[TradCat]

Transfers will be interesting. If we don't get the importance of using PR to get rid of Fianna Fail by now we deserve them. Vote for the people you like then use the rest of the ballot to vote against FF. It's that simple.

[Oldira1]

Surely O'Neills transfers will go with the opposition rather than to Fianna Fail? I doubt Fine Gael will want to save Fianna Fail!