Donegal South-West hotting up

[back.again]

Labour? No, I don't think so. Donegal is a very Republican county which explains why it has always gone FF. FF is a pox now in the NW. Even staunch supporters of FF are turning away from them. That also explains to a large extent why they are against FG (civil war politics at it's best).

McBrearty (Labour) was recently elected to the CC in DSW and had a strong showing. Mainly due to his opposition to FF and his persecution by the government. He had loads of publicity and name recognition as a result.

Also worthy to mention that Cora Harvey (SF) topped the poll in DSW on the first count. McBrearty got in on the 2nd count I believe.

all IHO.

McBrearty didnt come in 2nd, he was elected on the 5th count having failed to make the quota. McBrearty polled better than most expected but performed terribly on garnering transfers! And the simple facts are that Sinn Fein never pull in substantial transfers! you'll see labour and SF bein eliminated and a massive anti-government vote transferring to O'Neill!

[SFInbhear]

I read today in the Donegal Democrat, sorry no link available, that an internal Fine Gael poll for Donegal South West, showed the party languishing in fourth place. The findings were that Doherty and O' Domhnaill were kneck on kneck with McBrearty third and O'Neill back in fourth. More worrying for the party is that its candidate is doing poorly to the West and South of Donegal Town, which is basically his own Electoral Area. Also worth noting is that the poll only included the four people mentioned above, so it did not include Thomas Pringle and Tom Conaghan who are both in O'Neill's catchment area, which would obviously lower his vote further. It would also affect O'Domhnaill and Doherty's vote. The article also mentioned that this may force Fine Gael to rethink its decision to run Barry O'Neill.

[Reality bites]

I read today in the Donegal Democrat, sorry no link available, that an internal Fine Gael poll for Donegal South West, showed the party languishing in fourth place. The findings were that Doherty and O' Domhnaill were kneck on kneck with McBrearty third and O'Neill back in fourth. More worrying for the party is that its candidate is doing poorly to the West and South of Donegal Town, which is basically his own Electoral Area. Also worth noting is that the poll only included the four people mentioned above, so it did not include Thomas Pringle and Tom Conaghan who are both in O'Neill's catchment area, which would obviously lower his vote further. It would also affect O'Domhnaill and Doherty's vote. The article also mentioned that this may force Fine Gael to rethink its decision to run Barry O'Neill.

God, that is really surprising! McBrearty in 3rd would be quite the upset

[charley]

McBrearty didnt come in 2nd, he was elected on the 5th count having failed to make the quota. McBrearty polled better than most expected but performed terribly on garnering transfers! And the simple facts are that Sinn Fein never pull in substantial transfers! you'll see labour and SF bein eliminated and a massive anti-government vote transferring to O'Neill!

O'Neill will get few votes past Ardara,no one from Glenties up will vote for someone from the south of the county.

[dotski_w_]

I read today in the Donegal Democrat, sorry no link available, that an internal Fine Gael poll for Donegal South West, showed the party languishing in fourth place. The findings were that Doherty and O' Domhnaill were kneck on kneck with McBrearty third and O'Neill back in fourth.

Have you the figures? I can't find that on the online version.

Those figures would be remarkable, if McBrearty was ahead of FG he could b expected to do very well on their transfers, putting him in with a decent chance of winning the by-election.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think he's likely to do that, but a poll that puts him ahead of FG would suggest he could if it was true.

[factual]

I read today in the Donegal Democrat, sorry no link available, that an internal Fine Gael poll for Donegal South West, showed the party languishing in fourth place. The findings were that Doherty and O' Domhnaill were kneck on kneck with McBrearty third and O'Neill back in fourth. More worrying for the party is that its candidate is doing poorly to the West and South of Donegal Town, which is basically his own Electoral Area. Also worth noting is that the poll only included the four people mentioned above, so it did not include Thomas Pringle and Tom Conaghan who are both in O'Neill's catchment area, which would obviously lower his vote further. It would also affect O'Domhnaill and Doherty's vote. The article also mentioned that this may force Fine Gael to rethink its decision to run Barry O'Neill.

I do take heart from that, seems like Doherty is in with a fighting chance.

[dotski_w_]

I do take heart from that, seems like Doherty is in with a fighting chance.

you're pleased with a "fighting chance"? I had him as favourite.

[Cai]

you're pleased with a "fighting chance"? I had him as favourite.

To get up to 50% + 1 he needs a lot of transfers. Shinners don't generally get them. If it happens anywhere it'll be here, but I won't be betting on it.

He'll get a seat in the GE though.

[SFInbhear]

Have you the figures? I can't find that on the online version.

Those figures would be remarkable, if McBrearty was ahead of FG he could b expected to do very well on their transfers, putting him in with a decent chance of winning the by-election.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think he's likely to do that, but a poll that puts him ahead of FG would suggest he could if it was true.

No it didnt give any figures. The online version isn't great so I wouldn't expect to find it there.

I wouldn't gaurantee McBrearty to benefit from O'Neills transfers, I would imagine Doherty could do just as well, especially given the Republican presence around Ballyshannon and Bundoran. I would also guess that O' Domhnaill and Doherty could be well ahead of the other candidates, turning it into a two horse race.

[SFInbhear]

To get up to 50% + 1 he needs a lot of transfers. Shinners don't generally get them. If it happens anywhere it'll be here, but I won't be betting on it.

He'll get a seat in the GE though.

Pearse will get transfers here. His campaign is gathering momentum and support, whilst the others have stalled.