Originally Posted by
cute hoor
Minister Noel Dempsey recently responded to a request to outline the Irish government's thoughts on the subject of Peak Oil. This is ahead of the ever so long awaited Energy Green Paper, Ireland's equivalent of the UK energy review.
The Minister does actually admit that oil is a finite resource (which I suppose is some sort of small step) but says that there are a wide range of estimates, up to beyond 2030, when Peak Oil may occur. However he assures me that, anyway, whenever peak oil occurs it will result in no immediate run down in supplies but lead to more efficient methods of extraction likely to lead to some equilibrium in supply and demand.
So you will be glad to hear there is no problem there and we have nothing to get concerned about!
He does recognise that high prices and the certainty that oil is a finite resource presents difficulties, particularly for transport but expects a global response in terms of alternative fuel vehicles.
He admits that planning for the possible effects oil peaking is a difficult problem for all countries but if intervention measures are initiated too early they may turn out to be premature and counter productive.
Well there is no chance of us making that silly mistake! Sure aren't we leading the way in Europe when it comes to delaying and procrastinating over anything substantive to do with renewable energy or energy efficiency.
In terms of alternative fuels, he estimates that 16 million litres of bio-fuels will be placed on the Irish transport market by 2007 and we will reach over 2% market penetration of bio fuels by 2008. How much of this is to be domestically produced and how much imported is not made clear.
This, apparently very impressively large, 2007 figure still only represents a totally insignificant and token 0.2% of our current oil use. To then increase, even this minute amount, 10 fold in one year is frankly just not credible by ramping up domestic production. Even if it could be achieved we would still remain 98% oil import dependent at our current extravagant consumption levels.
He also mentions the 2005 EC Energy Green Paper “Doing more with less” which he says the government broadly supports and strongly believes that action can achieve positive long term outcomes.
If only, even strong, belief in action could achieve anything when we are all going to have to do much,much less with much much less.
Don't need a Weatherman
It can scarcely have escaped anyone's notice that this has been by and large a very dry and hot summer following another dry winter. My own little micro willow plantation has made little growth this year and the leaves are prematurely yellowing and falling off. Yields of early potatoes are well down and prices up due to a severe lack of rain across the country and the acres of grass grown all around here for cattle grazing, silage and hay making are making slow headway.
If this is a climate trend rather a weather blip, as seems increasingly likely, then it has very serious consequences not just for potential bio-fuel prospects but for food production as well.
Conclusion
Substituting renewable energy and energy efficiency for significant millions of tons of oil is not an easy task accomplished cheaply and quickly. Countries that have made significant progress in doing this and developing the skills base to support it, are now much better placed to face an uncertain energy future. They have only managed it as a result of enormous real commitment, investment and sustained hard work over long time spans and with access to cheap fossil fuels. Countries like Ireland which have made little or largely ineffectual efforts in this direction are in an increasingly precarious position which is showing little real sign yet of even being acknowledged or of having much prospect of improving significantly in the foreseeable future.
Bio-fuel does has the potential to make small and valuable local transport fuel contributions but not on anything near the scale of our current extravagant fossil fuel use. Creating an impression, or letting an impression take hold in the public mind that it can, is highly disingenuous and irresponsible to say the least.
The physical impossibility, not to mention environmental undesirability, of trying to substitute more than a small percentage of current energy use with bio fuel crops etc, seems to be the very large pink elephant in the living room that many are still very studiously trying to ignore.
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