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Winners: Labour, Fine Gael, Independents, Far Left
FG - 340 seats, up 47 - 32.2% of first prefs, up 4.3%, +1 TD, -1 MEP
Lab - 132 seats, up 31 - 14.7% of first prefs, up 4.1% and +2 MEPs
Others - 136 seats, up 40, 18%...., up 4.4%
Losers: Greens, Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein
Greens - 3 seats, down 15, 2.3% of first prefs, down 1.4%
FF - 218 seats, down 84, 25.4%.... down 7%, -1 TD, -1 MEP
SF - 54 seats, static on 2002 result, 7.4%, down .7%, -1 MEP
Labour:
Labour are the big winners from these elections. Having been static for over a decade, Labour have gotten a big injection of new blood into the party, created some real momentum with getting 2 new MEPS and a good profile for White in DS for next GE. Labour will be targetting some SF seats next time, Eric Byrne had huge result in Crumlin/Kimmage and will target the DSC seat with optimism and Arthur Spring outpolling T. Ferris in SF's Tralee heartland.
Will also want gains in Dublin North Central to, from Finian mcGrath and all over the country in a return to Spring tidal waters.
Fine Gael:
Good election. The fact they now have 120 more cllrs than FF is remarkable and a stunning success. Lee is massive, but Donohue is a disappointment - tempered only by O'Sullivan being an anti-FF vote anyway and Donohue must be assured in Dub Central next time. The euro's were always going to be tough, but Phelan and Burke were slightly further off the pace than they hoped. Could have done better, but overall will be very happy. Lots of new blood and a strong momentum. In 2012 they'll target 5 of 6 green seats - using the ex PD vote and then at least a dozen FF seats.
Independents/Socialist/PBP:
Richard Boyd barrett and Higgins in with great shot though Higgins may have to move base - I can't see him dislodge the ultra high profile trio of Lenihan, Varadkar and Burton. Daly might well target Trevor Sargent... but is way off the pace....
Greens:
Worst nightmare. Can't pull out now, pilloried for staying on. 3 cllrs and going to lose a lot of seats. Sargent may be the only one with a good chance of surviving. A huge problem for them is the death of PDs and the return of chunks of that vote to FG. In short:
Ryan - DS: Now faces 3 heavyweight FG TDs in Lee, Shatter and Mitchell. Also has a stronger Alex White (lab) and the FF TD (one will be returned Brennan/Corrigan). Liz O'Donnell is gone and White and Lee in particular will take from Ryan's vote. 1 FF 3 FG 1 Lab in 2012
Gormley - DSE: McDowell gone, and FG will chase two seats, Eoghan Murphy had a stunning performance for FG in Pembroke and wa svery media savvy. Creighton needs to deliver him. Add Quinn, FF and the greens are in some trouble. 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab in 2012
Gogarty - MidWest: Harney is expected to not run again, the grenes imploded out in DMW in the LE. FF will hold the seat, but Keating (FG) got a bigger 1st pref vote in Lucan ward than Tuffy or Gogarty got in the GE!. FG to take a seat and strongly target 2 (Francis Fitzgerald) if Harney doesnt run. Throw in the Lab seat and rumoured MLM.... Gogarty will be the first green casualty. 1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 FG, 1 ex-PD or 2FG in 2012.
White: Carlow/Kilk. White scrapped over the line in 2007 and had elss than 1/2 a quota... where will she get transfers? JP Phelan was behind her (due to bad vote management by Hogan).. expect him to be will in front come the next GE. Labour will also be very strongly fighting for a seat here, prob at FF expense, they currently have 3 TDs.. one being John McGuinness... a key constituency. 2 FF 2 FG 1 lab in 2012...
Cuffe: DunLao - less than 1/2 a quota in 07.. struggle for transfers. Currently 2 FF, 1Gr, 1 FG, 1 Lab. FG should get 2 here, they messed up in 2007 and Fiona O'Malley is now gone. Richard Boyd barrett very strongly placed too. 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 PBP.
Sargent: Dub North. Safest of al Green TDs. There's no Labour presence here, andther eisn't a 2nd FG seat here... so he'll be fine bar a strong Lab challenge or Clare Daly making a big run. Don't see a real challenger here.
They can't pull put now unless they deliver something. If Niall O'Br is listened to in the party, there may start to be a shift in green grassroots towards a pull out at the next general meeting of the greens - giving Gormley the fig leaf of being mandated out, rather than pulling it down himself. They must go out on a principle, to win back some public support. FG in particular will be out to kill them in 2012.
Fianna Fail:
Cling on til 2012. Nothing good about this result for them. Going to lose lots of senators, little new blood and going to have nightmares come the selection process for a General Election - with splinters, angry grassroots and so on. This is a long term problem. At the GE they will run a good fewer candidates in certain constituencies to try and protect seats (rather than chasing them).
The main fear they have to get to 2012 are not the greens bolting, but FF backbenchers deciding they'd be better off as Ind's and jumping ship. A few TDs may feel a timely refusing of the whip may be an electoral boon.. but timing will be everything.
Sinn Fein:
Static and lost MLM, lost vote share, lost some good names, and wasn't in the shake up in Dublin Central, therefore a bad election. PBP/Socialist types ate into SF vote strongly in parts of the city - particularly in Aonghus O'Snodaighs DSC area with Brid Smith and Joan Collins miles ahead of the SF candidates and Labour resurgent. AoS scraped home by less than 100 votes in 2007... he is under severe pressure.
Ferris had a great Euros, but she has no hope in a 2 seat Kerry South. If she replaces her dad she is facing a resurgent Labour which got 15% of the LE vote, with Ferris heartland of Tralee giving 3613 1st prefs to SF and 4840 to Lab. It's by no means a secure seat, despite her excellent showing.
And the big question, what to do with MLM. Do you run her in Dub Central again, where she was soundly rejected in 2007 and didn't run in the bye-election, or do you re-home her? If so, where and at whose expense. parachuting candidates in over hard working local activitists hasn't proven successful to date and there's only one SF Dublin TD. Would Sean Crowe appreciate being bumped for her - in what is sure to return to SF as a seat in a FF collapse? Do you run her in MidWest to try get an extra seat instead?
A third election rejection and she's done... SF need a Dail member with charisma and a high media profile, and despite the merits of the current 4, thats something they don't have. Shes the only one with national media recognition amongst those not 'interested' in politics.
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