The World's New Numbers op ed

[pete2]

Something dramatic has happened to the world’s birthrates. Defying predictions of demographic decline, northern Europeans have started having more babies. Britain and France are now projecting steady population growth through the middle of the century. In North America, the trends are similar. In 2050, according to United Nations projections, it is possible that nearly as many babies will be born in the United States as in China. Indeed, the population of the world’s current demographic colossus will be shrinking. And China is but one particularly sharp example of a widespread fall in birthrates that is occurring across most of the developing world, including much of Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. The one glaring exception to this trend is sub-Saharan Africa, which by the end of this century may be home to *****one-*****third of the human *****race.

Article is interesting and I didn't quote from it extensively.. to collect up some of the points argued

• The EU fertility rate is healthy- immigration is therefore not needed to replenish pension funds or replace seniors
• The EU should increase its age of retirement & workforce participation rates
• EUArabia is a myth- but that is disputed in turn by other statisticians
• Majority of mideast is in peril in terms of demographics
• The seats of Islam and Christianity are relocating to Africa with Africas population expected to be 1.7 billion by 2050 and doubled again to 3 billion by 2100
• China is demographically weak

The World's New Numbers

[Mr.De-Regulation]

Its hard to believe who is right.

[Corcaigh33]

Most important aspect of it is, climate change coupled with such a huge increase in global population will cause more mass migration across the planet, a planet which will not be able to sustain such a burgeoning population without some sort of global will to do so. The scramble for resources as seen in Iraq will become more frequent as countries try to ensure their energy and food resources into the future. At some point, in my opinion, we will look at our planet's population in the same way as we look at climate change now. Difference being, in my opinion we cannot impact climate change and should instead focus on managing its consequences - we can impact global population.

[cactusflower]

Things are not looking so good in Russia.

In Russia, the effects of declining fertility are amplified by a phenomenon so extreme that it has given rise to an ominous new *****term—*****hypermortality. As a result of the rampant spread of maladies such as HIV/AIDS and alcoholism and the deterioration of the Russian *****health *****care system, says a 2008 report by the UN Development Program, “mortality in Russia is 3–5 times higher for men and twice as high for women” than in other countries at a comparable stage of development. The report—which echoes earlier findings by demographers such as the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Murray *****Feshbach—*****predicts that within little more than a decade the *****working-*****age population will be shrinking by up to one million people annually. Russia is suffering a demographic decline on a scale that is normally associated with the effects of a major *****war.

It is important to consider what this means for the future of the Russian economy. Identified by Goldman Sachs as one of the BRIC quartet (along with Brazil, India, and China) of key emerging markets, Russia has been the object of great hopes and considerable investments. But a very large question mark must be placed on the economic prospects of a country whose young male work force looks set to decrease by *****half.

[jmcc]

At some point, in my opinion, we will look at our planet's population in the same way as we look at climate change now. Difference being, in my opinion we cannot impact climate change and should instead focus on managing its consequences - we can impact global population.

I'd say that it is already being considered in some thinktanks and some areas will be depopulated by natural means or by micro-conflicts over resources. If I was to be really cynical, I'd say that the waves of mass migrations will not happen because the dead can't migrate.

Regards...jmcc