Economists forecast 15 more years of strong growth

[sackville]

I haven't read it but I read somewhere that it is based on the assumption that all other things remain equal which is unlikely over such a long period of time.

yes, I'd agree with that these projections are not based in the real world. I would more likely bet against ‘all other things remain equal' even in the short to medium term. The possibility further wars, terrorist attacks, the threat of deadly pandemics , issues of energy supply and security, climate change etc are all real and present dangers. The world simply too volatile a place and the growing public resistance to mass immigration is bound to increase- not decrease.

[Catalpa]

I haven't read it but I read somewhere that it is based on the assumption that all other things remain equal which is unlikely over such a long period of time.

yes, I'd agree with that these projections are not based in the real world. I would more likely bet against ‘all other things remain equal' even in the short to medium term. The possibility further wars, terrorist attacks, the threat of deadly pandemics , issues of energy supply and security, climate change etc are all real and present dangers. The world simply too volatile a place and the growing public resistance to mass immigration is bound to increase- not decrease.

Too true.

Compare the World of say 23 March 1986 with the one of today and the changes have been huge.

[david]

They also say that the number of vehicles (cars?) will double.

Ahem. What will they run on?

[eurocrat]

For a different view on the "benefits" of the Tiger, see this:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/weekend/st...364782,00.html

That article smacks of jealously. We don't exsit for tourist or tousim. We need roads, even if that interferes in other preceptions.


I have to say the pessimism here is striking. If a report saying the opposite came out you guys would love it. Most countries in the world would love to have our problems.

[hiding behind a poster]

With the level of PPS numbers issued to immigrants from the NAS in 2005 reaching in excess of 150,000 then the figures given in this report are are clearly bogus in relation to the numbers who will be here by 2020.

Why do people have to engage in falsehoods -sad really!

These folks are Dreamers at best if not downright con artists, like can't they count or something?

BTW

150,000 x 14 = 2,100,000.

This projection does not include any immigrants who are arriving here from China, Africa, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Brazil etc etc.

The numbers of immigrants living here in 2020 will be far far greater than one million at this rate of change.

No they won't. As usual, you're distorting the figures to present a false picture. You're assuming that every single person who migrates into Ireland in this period will stay forever - which is clearly nonsense. Already the figures from the last year bear this out - 150,000 PPS numbers were issued for people from the NAS, 80,000 new jobs were created, and there was no rise in unemployment. So when you add onto the 150,000 the migrants from the established EU, US, Africa, Australia, Far East, etc(say 30,000 in total - which, given that 20,000 Irish emigrants per annum are returning, is being conservative), and STILL have no rise in unemployment, then its fairly obvious that net inward migration is only about 35/40% of gross migration in a given year. So the actual net figure between now and 2020 would not be 2,100,000, but somewhere between 750,000 and 850,000. And most economists predict that our migration figures from the NAS will drop post-2011 anyway, when they have the option of going to every country in the EU.

[zakalwe]

this prediction is a laugh and no respected economist will put any weight on its findings. it has served to 1. increase NCBs profile in the media and 2. hit the headlines.

a true economist knows that an analogy to predicting economic conditions in the future is like trying to drive a car while looking out the rearview window.

as previously mentioned in my opening posts, i've a master in economics and i've never got any predictions right!!!! even though i had access to the finest analysts and fellow economists we failed to correctly identify our position on the interest rate cycle!

[eurocrat]

I take it there wasn't a module on the use of capital letters in your masters :wink: I tend to over compenstate due my German backround and posts, emails and SMS written in small letters particulary grating.

Economics is, of course, a very unexact science and is better at explaining why stuff happened, then why stuff will happen. As you say NBC do get a bit of media attention out of this, but someone has to make an attempt to predicting the future of the Irish Economy. It makes for a nice discussion.

Like I say if this report was negative, I believe posters on this site would be far happier. Its amazing how people can find such amounts of Economic doom and gloom in this remarkable period of growth and employment.

Basically if we are not happy now, we will never be.

Incidently the ERSI has welcomed the propect of further interest rate hikes in Frankfurt and predicts Umemployment to drop to 3.7% in 2007.

from rte.ie:

Higher rates welcomed

Dr Alan Barrett of the ESRI said higher interest rates are badly needed to cool the property market, and that Ireland could have done with higher rates years ago.

The consensus among the research institutes which make up the EFN is that Ireland's economic growth will slow modestly this year and next, but that it will still be the star performing economy, growing at twice the European average.

Strong jobs growth is expected to continue with unemployment here falling to just 3.7% next year.

Inflation is expected to average 2.7% this year and 2.6% in 2007.

[Reece]

....What will they run on?

Presumably they will traverse the nation on roads, roads that we will built, or not, depending on the green lobby. Motorways cutting through this green and pleasant land, or not... protected by an army of toll-booths strategically placed along the concrete 'ribbon' like the castles of the Pale of old.

If you mean fuel, then we may expect the sugar factories to convert to bio-fuels and we can forget the pong of cowshyte and enjoy the odour of fish-and-chips!

Seriously, either way with a population of 5.3 million and 1.5 million cars on the roads its time to consider that Romanian villa in the depths of Translyvania or somewhere, retire early - and get the pension transferred.

[ON THE ONE ROAD]

when i was a kid they said that by the year 2000 we'd have cars that could fly. they lied. An infinate number of things could happen in the next 15 years, stuff like this is just slapping ourselfs on the back.

[FutureTaoiseach]

With the level of PPS numbers issued to immigrants from the NAS in 2005 reaching in excess of 150,000 then the figures given in this report are are clearly bogus in relation to the numbers who will be here by 2020.

Why do people have to engage in falsehoods -sad really!

These folks are Dreamers at best if not downright con artists, like can't they count or something?

BTW

150,000 x 14 = 2,100,000.

This projection does not include any immigrants who are arriving here from China, Africa, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Brazil etc etc.

The numbers of immigrants living here in 2020 will be far far greater than one million at this rate of change.

No they won't. As usual, you're distorting the figures to present a false picture. You're assuming that every single person who migrates into Ireland in this period will stay forever - which is clearly nonsense. Already the figures from the last year bear this out - 150,000 PPS numbers were issued for people from the NAS, 80,000 new jobs were created, and there was no rise in unemployment. So when you add onto the 150,000 the migrants from the established EU, US, Africa, Australia, Far East, etc(say 30,000 in total - which, given that 20,000 Irish emigrants per annum are returning, is being conservative), and STILL have no rise in unemployment, then its fairly obvious that net inward migration is only about 35/40% of gross migration in a given year. So the actual net figure between now and 2020 would not be 2,100,000, but somewhere between 750,000 and 850,000. And most economists predict that our migration figures from the NAS will drop post-2011 anyway, when they have the option of going to every country in the EU.

I assume the 2011 argument is based on the deadline for Germany, Austria etc. removing their limits on migration from the new EU states. The truth is that they will probably try to get a way out of it. Look at all the EU laws even Ireland still hasn't implemented. There are LOADS of EU laws the French haven't implemented. I bet this will join the ranks of those. Also, the report seems to be assuming that Irish governments in future won't compensate for any fall in immigration by handing out more work-permits and 'student visas'. I feel that a Rainbow govt will be even more liberal than this govt on this issue. Remember that FG wants to allow asylum-seekers to work which can only increase the number of those coming here. Also the bleeding-heart Labour backbencers will prevent a crackdown mark my words.