The next government will be a FG&FF coalition - it could happen within months

[NapperTandy]

I'm firmly of the the belief that this will happen a lot sooner than people think. The main reason why it will happen is the rise in Labour's poll ratings in the opinion polls.

The Red-C polls are no longer reliable, they are awarding Labour just 10% of the don't knows, while they award FF 50% of the don't knows. Does this make sense?? I think the next MRBI poll will show FG at 30%, FF at 25% , Labour at 20%, SF at 10%, Greens at 5% and Independents at 10%.

If there was an election it would probably mean that FG would have 60 seats, FF would have 50, Labour would have 35, SF would have 11, Greens would have 4 and Independents 6. Eamonn Gilmore would have a very strong claim to be Taoiseach, if he could put together a left wing alliance. I don't think this will happen though.

The most adaptable party in Irish politics is FF, they will enter coalition with FG in a FG led government. The main reason that has stopped this happening up to now has been the poor showing of Labour in general elections.

A lot of FF TDs will be retiring before the next election. It is quite likely that they will come back with a smaller and more compact party(easier to manage). FF backbenchers will no longer able to wield the influence they once had in a 110 seat government.

The breakdown between Right and Left in Irish society is probably 60/40. A FG&FF coalition will probably establish that divide for and for all.

The collapse in Govt finances has probably moved the FG&FF coalition one step closer. It wouldn't surprise me if the general election is held on the same day as the European & Local elections.

[Digout]

Incorrect, FF hate FG.

[Gruffalo]

[Question R24U]

A lot that is wishful thinking without any basis in reality.

You are suggesting that 110 TDs will agree to coalese, and therefore give a huge boost to Labour in the 2014 election and put many of those 110 seats at risk (why would the TDs for Mayo vote for it?).

FF is failing to deal with the economy. FG needs to get them out. They will try and do a deal with Labour,but again on your numbers Labour would have only 15 seat less than their "partners" in Government if they went in with FF, as opposed to contributing 35 of a 95 seat government.

My view, Labour will do a deal with FG but cross the floor to FF when times get too tough.

[NapperTandy]

Incorrect, FF hate FG.

It's all a show for the cameras The best friendships in the Dail are between FF&FG Tds. It's a game they play between themselves. Only last week John McGuinness was singing the praises of Simon Coveney in the Dail. FF always want to be top dog, that is why there is hostility between FF&FG. Those rules no longer apply now, FG are the largest party in the polls. FF have stopped attacking FG, and have started acting warm and friendly towards them in public. Things must be really bad when they start doing that

[NapperTandy]

A lot that is wishful thinking without any basis in reality.

You are suggesting that 110 TDs will agree to coalese, and therefore give a huge boost to Labour in the 2014 election and put many of those 110 seats at risk (why would the TDs for Mayo vote for it?).

FF is failing to deal with the economy. FG needs to get them out. They will try and do a deal with Labour,but again on your numbers Labour would have only 15 seat less than their "partners" in Government if they went in with FF, as opposed to contributing 35 of a 95 seat government.

My view, Labour will do a deal with FG but cross the floor to FF when times get too tough.

Time will tell

[pfkf]

There is no chance of this happening. end of discussion.

[drbob1972]

The Red-C polls are no longer reliable, they are awarding Labour just 10% of the don't knows, while they award FF 50% of the don't knows. Does this make sense?? I think the next MRBI poll will show FG at 30%, FF at 25% , Labour at 20%, SF at 10%, Greens at 5% and Independents at 10%.

If there was an election it would probably mean that FG would have 60 seats, FF would have 50, Labour would have 35, SF would have 11, Greens would have 4 and Independents 6. Eamonn Gilmore would have a very strong claim to be Taoiseach, if he could put together a left wing alliance. I don't think this will happen though.

i don't get the Gilmore claim to be Taoiseach, by your predictions he'd get at most 56 in a left wing coalition (assuming that the greens are left wing, which i'm not so sure of) that would still be short of the 83 +1 required to be voted Taoiseach.

as for a FG/FF grand coalition its not outside the realms of possibility (its happened in other countries, most recently germany) though i believe it would require the departure of much of the top "leadership" in FF and probably some of the FG old guard also, and depending on the program for government could be acceptable, and even more preferable to much of what Lab under gilmore have been coming out with.

it would however (assuming a modicum of success) most certainly be the end of civil war politics in this country and could well herald an era of left / right politics seen in most other european countries

an interesting prospect

[drbob1972]

My view, Labour will do a deal with FG but cross the floor to FF when times get too tough.

indeed Labour do seem to have a "Italian War Strategy" about them alright......

[turdsl]

Labour will do well if they get 24 seats at the next election in a few months time