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About LinkBacksJust heard these:
FG 30 (-3)
FF 23 (-5)
LAB 22 (+8)
Green 6 (-2)
SF 11 (+2)
IND 8
Lisbon 70/30 Yes/No
Just heard these:
FG 30 (-3)
FF 23 (-5)
LAB 22 (+8)
Green 6 (-2)
SF 11 (+2)
IND 8
Lisbon 70/30 Yes/No
Last edited by David Cochrane; 28th February 2009 at 08:22 PM. Reason: Confirmed.
Can you not confirm it? If not you should prob change the opening post or we might be having a pointless discussion.
Don't get carried away Factual.
They look spot on to me, but I didn't hear from orinignal source, hense the reason I want confirmation, but I'm pretty sure there right.Originally Posted by TimBuckII
And the title doesn't actually say "These are the . . . . .results", so don't get your knickers in a twist.
If true, it's great news for Labour. An election couldn't come quick enough for Gilmore right now.
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where is the lost FG vote going to? Labour?
Yes... Labour are up 8, while FF and FG are down 8
There is a certain section of people, who started expressing support for FG 6 months ago, who are jumping back to support Labour..... these would be very soft "swing voters"... who, and without wishing to incur the wrath of the FG posters who'll be on here, is probably down to the fact that no matter what they think, Eamon Gilmore has been more impressive in both the Dáil and media than Enda Kenny
In FG's case, it's still a pretty good poll, in that they are still the best supported party in the polls.. but this seems to be a trend in the last few polls, that they are leaking soft vote. The only problem for them might be the fact that it looks bad.. pound to a penny, as in the last few polls, that any FF TD asked about the poll and FF's drop, will quickly change the discussion to "FG are dropping too".. that seems to be their latest tactic for deflecting bad polls
Labour.. what can one say.. indicative of a very positive trend for them over the past 3 months... It's down to Gilmore in my opinion.. without doubt now the most popular leader... given the right circumstances, June could be a very good month for them
Greens... hard to say.. poll shows a drop, but within the margin of error and given that they are concentrated in certain areas, more or less shows them as becalmed
SF... much the same as the Greens... not capitalising on the massive fall off in FF support over the last 3 months, but should still enjoy decent election results in June due to work already done locally by activists (could also be the slow release effect of IRA de-commissioning, who knows .. hmm...)
Indo's .. very hard to say... Indo support is very localised and national opinion polls tell you nothing about what they are likely to get in June
Summation
FG... could be better, but reasonable
FF... must be getting very scared as the downward trend seems to have stuck fast
Lab ... must be delighted
Greens ... not happy, not panicking
SF ... steady, most likely reached their ceiling, in fact, disappointing
Indo.. polls make no difference, localism is king to the Indo
Final comment:
If FG had Eamon Gilmore as leader, they'd be over 40%, and looking at a potential overall majority
Are the figures confirmed? KN or DC normally get them at 6?
All recent polls contain a significant (20% or more) amount of undecideds, so when these are excluded it gives the appearance of support shifting from one party to another. While this shift may be true to a limited extent, at the moment the fluctuating party performances may be reflected more by the tendency of voters to be sure about whom they would actually vote for. However, we must bear in mind that such people are less likely to actually cast votes in elections anyway.
So in all likelihood, Labour are picking up more undecideds, FF are losing support generally, and FG lost some of the undecideds they previously had picked up in the earlier poll.
if accurate FG will have some serious questions to answer internally, why are they doing so poor and not mopping up much more of the vote ? how much of it is down to leadership personalities ? would FG be as wysiwyg says be over 40 is they had gilmore ? what would they be with Bruton as a leader ? and more to the point what would Lab be without Gilmore ? He's been impressive but apart from him and burton (to a lesser extent) I'd not be overly impressed with them.....
for transparency i'm a FG supporter as a rule
Enda Kenny on FF government: “We’re in this mess, not because Fianna Fáil policies have failed, but because they have succeeded.”
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