Tomorrows SBP/Red C Poll results

[FrankSpeaks]

The best thing about this poll is the good news on Lisbon II. It's going to be a resounding YES.

[Amach na Casca]

The best thing about this poll is the good news on Lisbon II. It's going to be a resounding YES.

The polls before the original Lisbon also pointed towards a resounding YES.

[Dios]

If low taxes are the principal reason for investment why isn't Africa booming

Africa doesn't provide access to the half billion strong European common market.

By the way,isn't it strange that low tax countries like the US,UK,and Ireland seem to be getting the worst of this recession and yet the Social Democracies of W.Europe don't seem to be having quite as many difficulties.

Thats not about taxation, thats about the levels of regulation in finance that were adopted by the "Anglo" countries, ie not much. More conservative economies aren't in as much trouble because they didn't tolerate casino economics.

[locke]

For all the talk of the performance of Labour, little has been made of the improvement in Sinn Fein's vote in this poll.

And if replicated in an election, this would provide the final nail in Fianna Fail's coffin. It means FF start losing seats that looked safe, even with the rise in the FG and Labour vote.

Anyway, I know it's just a poll, but my constituency analysis came up with

FG 66
FF 40
Lab 35
SF 10
Grn 5
Others 10

That includes five constituencies where they get no TD and there are a number of others where I'd seen them as certain for two where that now becomes doubtful.

While I have no doubt that FF will recover somewhat by the next general election, if these poll ratings are carried into the locals, it will have a devestating affect on the party.

Given the clientelist nature of Irish politics, it would mean fewer people out there doing the hard local graft that FF have been so good at. In addition, we'd see no inheritance of 'family seats' and the break in continuity may never be recovered. Finally, it would provide no opportunity to get new faces into the councils, meaning a party that seems increasingly old, even moribund.

Some have drawn parallels with the demise of the Tories in Britain. And one thing that's not often mentioned, but which played an important role was the decline in their grassroots organisation as voters vented their frustration in the local elections. It meant that once the decline had set in, it was hard to reverse the process. 12 years on and they're only now starting to appear to be a threat again. FF can write off the locals at their peril.

[Seos]

For all the talk of the performance of Labour, little has been made of the improvement in Sinn Fein's vote in this poll.

It is quite regular for Sinn Féin to get up to 11% in polls and the rise is also within the margin of error. If they go up above that then it will be notable.