Possible long-term political realignment?

[stokenchurch]

It seems to me that this is a once in a generation / lifetime opportunity for a political realignment. FF are really and truly on the ropes. It is beginning to look (at least) conceivable that they might not recover. If FG can convince the tentative disaffected middle class voters to back them at a general election, they have the chance to become the biggest political party for years to come. The problem is: when it comes to the crunch, its going to be very difficult to convince these voters to vote FG with such a poor leader like Enda Kenny at the helm (nice man but a political lightweight if there ever was one). But FG can't replace him at this stage in the cycle because (a) there is no obvious high quality replacement in the party ranks; and (b) things are looking so good in the polls that the generation of FG front benchers that have spent so little (if any) time in government will be so concerned with getting their hands on a ministry for the short / medium term that they won't want to topple the current leader. The opportunity will be lost, unfortunately.

[Gimpanzee]

You're fooling yourself. This en-of-civil-war-politics stuff is completely overplayed. FF will be back, as big and as ugly as ever. They might take a pasting, but a large body of the 20-45 year old vote will be only loaning the vote out - only delighted to give it back to FF, because deep down, they'd rather be giving FG a kicking than FF and will do so at the first opportunity, and in the process be tipping the hat to the auld fella and the grandfather and the grand-father who voted FF all their lives.

Switching temporarily, which I think is all we are seeing, is the political equivalent of 'hold-me-back, hold-me-back' - just provides cover so that when they are back voting FF, and allowing them to pretend that it is because they are the best option and not the traditional option. And provides them with the disclaimer 'I voted FG once and never again...'

[JCSkinner]

Voters moving from one broad church cute hoor middle-right populist party to another is not a long-term political realignment.
The growth of either Labour into a third contender, or the eradication of the plethora of micro-parties (PDs gone, Greens to follow hopefully, PSF too?) would create a long-term political realignment.
But I don't expect it to happen.

[smitchy2]

The same was said about FG 6 years ago.
They are 2 middle ground centrist parties who will usually gain most populist appeal.
FF's organisation is the strongest in the country and it has the most loyal voters of any party. I don't think they can be discounted too easily. It looks like they will be out of government for 1 or 2 terms now.
FG policies will be hampered by Labour in a new government.

[stokenchurch]

Very interesting comments.

Just to clarify my earlier post: I meant a realignment of the percentage core vote of the political parties, not an ideological realignment. Since they came to power in the early 30s, FF seem to have always been comfortable in their position as the largest party. Surely it would be highly significant if they were to lose that position?

I take your point about people loaning out their votes, but I suspect there might be something more to the shifting patterns in the polls.

[JCSkinner]

They lost that position to Garret Fitz's FG then won it back. No long-term realignment then.

[Tiernanator]

Voters moving from one broad church cute hoor middle-right populist party to another is not a long-term political realignment.
The growth of either Labour into a third contender, or the eradication of the plethora of micro-parties (PDs gone, Greens to follow hopefully, PSF too?) would create a long-term political realignment.
But I don't expect it to happen.

Wishful thinking JC our party is becoming more dynamic and organised all the time and I am pleased to see so many young people joining our ranks, including young people from middle class backgrounds. Labour while worthy is not the voice of the working class and is therefore a middle class protest party for those who can't stomach FF but who would never want to see a revived right wing FG. FG are only being nice now because they have been out of power for so long just like the tories in Britain. They are conservatives at heart and therefore FF willl always be the populist and more acceptable face of capitalism in Ireland.

FG has improved in my opinion in many areas of the country but their is a rump within the party that makes them unpalatable to anyone with even a modicum of nationalist leaning. Maybe this is unfair and to a large extent I would consider it inaccurate analysis but FG will always be more frightening to many Irish voters than FF. I cannot advise FG as to how they could change this but more of the same is not what is required if they are to reach for transfers from people like my family and friends.

[lostexpectation]

2225 in mid of continuing depression ff and fg merge?

[White Horse]

Maybe this is unfair and to a large extent I would consider it inaccurate analysis but FG will always be more frightening to many Irish voters than FF. I cannot advise FG as to how they could change this but more of the same is not what is required if they are to reach for transfers from people like my family and friends.

FG are not frightening to the 34% who will give them their first preference according to the recent poll. Nor are they frightening to the 14% of the electorate of Labour voters as they are consistently their favoured coalition partners.

That amounts to roughly 50% of the electorate.

Have a look at other western democracies and you'll find few parties who do better.

[stokenchurch]

JCSkinner

I wouldn't agree that they ever lost it to Garret Fitz's FG.

Percentage FF vote during the 1980s would indicate they were always comfortably ahead (with the exception maybe of 1982).

1981: FF 45.3; FG 36.5
1982 (FEB): FF 43.3; FG 37.3
1982 (NOV): FF 45.2; FG 39.2
1987: FF 44.1; FG 27.1.
Source: Elections in Ireland - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia