Poll Shock - not a blip - MRBI Poll Confirmed

[dotski_w_]

I'd guess the two Donegal seats, Dessie Ellis in DNW, and Sean Crowe in DSW.

yep, both Donegals going 1/1/1, and Dub SW getting 2nd FF seat, but without reaching quota (would be vulnerable if a good IND candidate ran there though, as would O'Snoddaigh in SC)

[hiding behind a poster]

Dublin Central should also be on - Gregory & Ahern won't be around thus opening up a lot of space & of course MLM has drawn a lot of attention to herself recently.

If an election happened anytime soon, Gregory would run. And in a general election based on an economic crisis, Mary Lou's shrill bleats about Lisbon won't get much attention.

[dotski_w_]

Dublin Central should also be on - Gregory & Ahern won't be around thus opening up a lot of space & of course MLM has drawn a lot of attention to herself recently.

Possible, but I didn't give that to them, there's a much bigger swing to FG who I have picking up the FF seat, and I think there's a good chance that another IND would take Gregory's seat on these figures.

[NapperTandy]

Why is Fianna Fail support holding up amongst older people in this poll? It is only down 6%, this seems a surprisingly small drop. Anyone any thoughts on this?

[Trefor1.1]

If an election happened anytime soon, Gregory would run. And in a general election based on an economic crisis, Mary Lou's shrill bleats about Lisbon won't get much attention.

Sure - on current figures FG would expect to pick up one of the FF seats & if Gregory stood he'd take some beating.

If he's out of it though there's considerable space & another independent wouldn't be nearly as strong as him.

BTW what's the score on Costello - will he be standing next time.

[Duth Ealla]

For those folks crunching numbers and estimating seats a quick question!

I was Just looking through some random election results on ElectionsIreland and noticed that while SF, as was known, suffered from poor transfer rates what transfers they did receive tended to come from labour/greens/independents or else SF candidates transferred that way i.e leftist parties transferred to each other.

Do your allocations for SF vary much if you were to allow for a that party breaking the transfer bogey. If the Labour/Independent/green block of votes goes up and SF were to enjoy a better rate of transfer then would there be any surprise additions to the lists suggested above.

The impact would seem to be less likely in the GE maybe more for locals.
Its hard to see where there could be surprise other than maybe Meath West where FF have(had) nearly 52% of the vote and if they were to drop heavily then maybe brady could drop out and Joe Reilly sneak in but I think that would be a very long shot.

[factual]

For those folks crunching numbers and estimating seats a quick question!

I was Just looking through some random election results on ElectionsIreland and noticed that while SF, as was known, suffered from poor transfer rates what transfers they did receive tended to come from labour/greens/independents or else SF candidates transferred that way i.e leftist parties transferred to each other.

Do your allocations for SF vary much if you were to allow for a that party breaking the transfer bogey. If the Labour/Independent/green block of votes goes up and SF were to enjoy a better rate of transfer then would there be any surprise additions to the lists suggested above.

The impact would seem to be less likely in the GE maybe more for locals.
Its hard to see where there could be surprise other than maybe Meath West where FF have(had) 50% of the vote and if they were to drop heavily then maybe brady could drop out and Joe Reilly sneak in but I think that would be a very long shot.

Its possible. Sinn Féin strategy has been aimed in part at improving transfer attractiveness as time goes on from historically low levels to the same levels enjoyed by other parties.

[MacCoise]

Mary Lou's shrill bleats about Lisbon won't get much attention.

Bitterness comes so easily to blueshirts.