Poll Shock - not a blip - MRBI Poll Confirmed

[Catalpa]

I think they mean that Enda Kenny has dropped a couple of points in the personel popularity stakes

at a time like this that is a piss poor reflection on Kenny's lack of charisma and popular appeal!

But he is probably OK as no one will challenge him now if he can deliver those extra seats.

[toxic avenger]

"Fine Gael by contrast have surged ahead, up 11 points to 34% although the party will be disappointed." The sentence just ends there. They don't even elaborate on why FG will be disappointed. The breakingnnews articles on rte are far too brief and badly written. The breakingnews feature in the irish times website is vastly superiour eventhough RTE has a hell of a lot more resources.

The RTE website pages are written by the correspondents themselves, I believe. Certainly the Tribunal pages were always word for word from John Kilraine, so I imagine it was McCullough wrote this.

[cyberianpan]

So, you're saying that if Varadkar, Flanagan and Reilly "toned things down" (I'm intrigued by that), FG would be even higher in this poll?

No, they are where they are ... my point is that on an "election day poll" people assess things differently. FG have a golden opportunity now but they need to start to appear governmental - and that trio in particular appear like hotheads.

cYp

[NM_123]

Smart FF TDs would bail now to FG, if they value their seats.

[Myles_per_hour]

I just read that too and was about to quote it?! WTF?! I hope for a life full of these types of disappointments!

I laughed when I saw it. I mean increasing by 11% is sooooo disappointing! And being only ahead for FF by 7 (the first time FG have ever been ahead of FF in an MRBI poll) is just so disappointing. I want to cry . . . with laughter. (Obviously DR works in RTE!!!)

[The Deise Man]

If there was an election tommorrow

FF: Would take a right hammering and lose dozens of seats. It's almost inconceivable how many they would lose. Cowen should be worried.

FG: The big winners. Will sweep the country. Their only problem is Enda.

LAB: Will increase their vote considerably but will not pick up many extra seats. They simply will not be in a position to capatlise on any bounce they are sure to get. I think they would pick up 3-5 seats at max.

SF: Will not be happy with recent poll results. However given that FF have two seats in each of the three Donegal Constituencies and they are the only party knocking on the door, they look certain to pick up these two. Mary Lou would win one in Dublin Central although Aengus O Snodaigh would be under severe pressure from Labour. The party would pick up at least three with one potential loss.

Greens: Could be reduced to two or three. They will not get transfers from Lab and SF in crucial constituencies for them and will lose seats. Mary White in Carlow/KK being an obvious example.

Next Government options:

FG and Lab will fall short of an overall majority. Depending on how close they come they could form a Government with Independents although it would be shakey.

The more likely options are the inclusion of the Greens or SF. They may not need both. If the Greens are reduced to 2/3 and SF increase to 6/7 than FG will have a tough call to make as SF may well hold the balance of power.

Im sure Bertie is saying may we live in interesting times.

[Flyposter]

Smart FF TDs would bail now to FG, if they value their seats.

I doubt FG would take them, they would be a liability

[baldur0300]

Smart FF TDs would bail now to FG, if they value their seats.

Why exactly is that? Surely with such a low poll, backbenchers concerned about their seats would want to weather the storm and make sure the government stays in place.

[toxic avenger]

Why exactly is that? Surely with such a low poll, backbenchers concerned about their seats would want to weather the storm and make sure the government stays in place.

Make sure a government stays in place, but not necessarily this one...

[politicaldonations]

No way FF will turn things around by 2012. Opposition just have to bash them and bash them and bash them till then and offer constructive solutions that they can claim credit for coming up with them first. FF will be destroyed by 2012 and country can escape from their clutches.