Sunday 26th SBP RedC Poll - FF 26% (-10) FG 33% (+5)

[DeGaulle 2.0]

It wasn'ty directed at anyone in particular. I'm just despressed to see some of the gloating on here from anti-FF posters. I understand that people want to see FF defeated, but the reason for this poll increase for FG is nothing to do with them presenting a coherent alternative - they haven't done so. It's down to narrow-minded elements of the public getting p1ssed off with FF for daring to try and cut public spending. Until there is a willingness by FG (as the only genuinely serious opposition party) to say the unpalatable truth to the public, and a corresponding willingness on the part of the public to listen, this situation is just going to get worse

There is also an issue of responsibility here, bortorum. It was FF who based thousands of permanent jobs and permanent entitlements on the temporary income from the property boom. Regardless of the quality of the opposition, unless people and parties are held to account for misgovernment then there is no hope for the country.

I sincerely hope there is an election soon because it is the only thing that will concentrate minds on the situation. The worst option for the country is FF and the Greens sticking it out as long as they can, postponing hard decisions all the time, but that is probably what will happen

[Fr. Hank Tree]

That's FG philosophy all right. Only when everything is going well and the country is already prospering do they actually want to take the reins. Unfortunately for them, and fortunately for FF, that's when people are least likely to want a regime change. It's when things start to go downhill and people actually start thinking about viable alternatives to the current coalition that FG shy away from their responsibilities a a political party.

You haven't a clue. We are where we are because of the misplaced notion that FF are the only one's who know how to run the economy. They were bailed out by FG in the 80s and it has led us to this point - a nation on the brink...again. If FG have to bail out FF this time it will happen alll over again.

[peadarmc]

I think an awful lot of people though the same.

as did most people i spoke to! they too say they'd rather Bruton! Ok its not as bad as the shoe tax fiasco of the 80's but its the biggest budget crisis since and to be fair, the most important point il make about it is....with a bit of political foresight and cop on, a lot of all of this could so easily have been avoided!

is it true the E-voting machines cost €52M per year to store? that would be a big saving to scrap them...why attack the elderly! its all their own fault and at this point id be happy for Bruton to give it a shot! couldnt do much worse!

[Edo]

Do you go to meetings or read the press releases?

Yes I do actually - and all I hear are tribal anti-FF rants, populist statements and lots of press releases written on the back of a fag packet that are meant to pose as "policy" - that if you lined them all up together side by side and looked for some degree of coherent thought in them you would assume that they were written by a schizophrenic lunatic with a capacity for serious self harm.

There has got to be consistency and coherent thought and staying on message - the problem for FG is that we give in to our desire to make a fast political buck today rather than think about the consequences of that tomorrow when we will say something different - this matters - because the electorate will always see FG as an opposition party as opposed to a party of government - yes FF might self destruct, but it will take a hell of a lot for that to happen - This inability to form a coherent alternative message - regardless of what those messers over in FF are doing - will cost us , probably 10-15 seats when it comes down a toss up because of this.

Now - before all the FGers start screaming -"But FF do this and they get away with it" - different rules folks - the electorate expect nothing more from FF - they expect a great deal more from Fine Gael - that is our cross to bear.

[factual]

FF - 26% (-10)
FG - 33% (+5)
Lab - 15% (+6)
Green - 6% (-1)
SF - 10% (+1)
PD - 2% (-1)
Ind - 8% (no change)

This was a much anticipated REDC poll. Many people over the week were anticipating a good result for Sinn Féin and so it turns out. This is an encouraging result.

Clearly there have been some bigger changes to other parties support. Actually, Sinn Féin don't want such "here today gone tomorrow" fluctuations in support - like the unsistainable change to FG support in this poll.

Rather Sinn Féin look to the long term. The strategy is and always has been a long term one: for steady sustainable growth and a year on year increase in votes and vote share. This poll with Sinn Fein at 10 (+1) is entirely consistent with that strategy and now consolidates Sinn Féin in double figures. That is a place from which Sinn Féin can now build.

A poster has helpfully placed the result in context over the last 9 months and here we see an impressive trend increase in Sinn Féin support, something lacking from other parties with their "here today gone tomorrow" support:

Party - Oct - Sep - Aug - Jul - Jun - May - Apr - Mar - Feb
SF - 10 - 9 - 10 - 9 - 8 - 8 - 7 - 6 - 7

This represents Sinn Féin on a solid long term rising trend. A number of interesting lessons are learnt.

1. First of all this shows that as economic conditions deteriorate more and more people are now turning to Sinn Féin as a response. So much for Sinn Féin being weak on economics!

2. Second, it shows the benefit of carving out a discinct position to the left of other parties on policy issues. On Europe there was the Lisbon campaign which provided some of the early boost. And more recently Sinn Féin have been able to oppose the FF budget, with the successful "Reverse the Cuts" campaign. This commitment to public services is all the more credible because it is consistent with the values that Sinn Féin has campaigned on, as evidenced in the recent "Healthcare is a Right" campaign of 2006.

3. Recent changes with regard to the peace process such as the IRA statement 2005 were expected to have a significant but only slow release lifting of the upper ceiling on Sinn Féin potential support, allowing actual support to follow upwardly with a lag. We are now seeing some of this feed through as and when voters started to look for alternative parties to support. And of course there is the effect on second preferences that is not measured in this poll.

4. Finally, even as Sinn Féin is starved of media coverage as it is today the party is able to expand and build for the future. Sinn Féin are entering a period and a level of support that means they will be hard to exclude from future kingmaker calculations for coalition formation.

[evercloserunion]

You haven't a clue. We are where we are because of the misplaced notion that FF are the only one's who know how to run the economy. They were bailed out by FG in the 80s and it has led us to this point - a nation on the brink...again. If FG have to bail out FF this time it will happen alll over again.

So let's say (hypothetically) a snap election was called tomorrow. Would FG be campaigning for FF?

[hiding behind a poster]

What can we say than to tell people that the idol is getting unmasked, no party can govern a country perpentually anyway given this anticident poll changes.

Well, exactly. I think.

[Fr. Hank Tree]

So let's say (hypothetically) a snap election was called tomorrow. Would FG be campaigning for FF?

?
Of course not. FG don't want an election, but if they got one, they'd go all out for power and rightly so.

[borntorum]

Remember when Richard Bruton was told he was mad to criticise benchmarking? People are starting to listen to him now as he has been consistent since 2002 in his criticism of over spending.
This poll is as irrelevant as all the others except in one respect - it makes people think that there is an alternative to FF and the lack of a credible alternative has been their main selling point for the last 2 elections.

FG were very mildly anti-benchmarking. They should have come out a lot more strongly against it. It would have annoyed public sector workers but impressed the rest of us, who are far in the majority. Now FG have an opportunity to outline extensive public sector rationalisation and reform. Unfortunately with Kenny at the helm it looks unlikely that they will ever outline any sort of measure that might annoy a section of the electorate.

There is also an issue of responsibility here, bortorum. It was FF who based thousands of permanent jobs and permanent entitlements on the temporary income from the property boom. Regardless of the quality of the opposition, unless people and parties are held to account for misgovernment then there is no hope for the country.

I agree entirely. Attack FF all you want. They deserve it. But please offer something constructive and honest as well. FGers are forever banging on about how they are less cynical and more interested in the national interest than FF. Now is your chance to prove it. So far it hasn't been promising

[toxic avenger]

Factual Will Write:

Sinn Fein are the clear winners in this poll. Another indication of Sinn Fein's resurgence after the aberration of last year's Election results. The people are in the mood for change and Gerry Adams, along with his effective and highly competent team, is now perfectly placed to become Ard-Ri, sorry, I mean Taoiseach, to shepherd the people towards the sunlit uplands of a socialist 32-County Republic, in due course. Any other interpretation of the poll is absurd.

Factual DID write:

This represents Sinn Féin on a solid long term rising trend. A number of interesting lessons are learnt.

1. First of all this shows that as economic conditions deteriorate more and more people are now turning to Sinn Féin as a response. So much for Sinn Féin being weak on economics!

2. Second, it shows the benefit of carving out a discinct position to the left of other parties on policy issues. On Europe there was the Lisbon campaign which provided some of the early boost. And more recently Sinn Féin have been able to oppose the FF budget, with the successful "Reverse the Cuts" campaign. This commitment to public services is all the more credible because it is consistent with the values that Sinn Féin has campaigned on, as evidenced in the recent "Healthcare is a Right" campaign of 2006.

3. Recent changes with regard to the peace process such as the IRA statement 2005 were expected to have a significant but only slow release lifting of the upper ceiling on Sinn Féin potential support, allowing actual support to follow upwardly with a lag. We are now seeing some of this feed through as and when voters started to look for alternative parties to support. And of course there is the effect on second preferences that is not measured in this poll.

4. Finally, even as Sinn Féin is starved of media coverage as it is today the party is able to expand and build for the future. Sinn Féin are entering a period and a level of support that means they will be hard to exclude from future kingmaker calculations for coalition formation.

Hmmm, sorry, I was way off...