Sunday 26th SBP RedC Poll - FF 26% (-10) FG 33% (+5)

[toxic avenger]

Cookie, what have you done to the latest discussions page, I know the thread was started by you but perhaps other threads can be permitted too?...

[Darren Mac an Phríora]

Are you gonna rejoin and help out, Darren?

I have already started to canvass again. Dublin West is going to be very interesting next year...

[constitutionus]

i really dont have any faith in polls but i know alot of politicos do and this should scare the crap out of em. particularly if its reflected in a TNS/MRBI on in a few weeks time as that'd show consistancy.

i'd love to be a fly on the wall in FF offices to see how this is recieved

[ibis]

The result is only really meaningful for the three main parties, where it is excellent for Labour, good for FG, and bad for FF.

Everyone else is well within the same range they've been all year:

Party - Oct - Sep - Aug - Jul - Jun - May - Apr - Mar - Feb
SF - 10 - 9 - 10 - 9 - 8 - 8 - 7 - 6 - 7
PD - 2 - 3 - 6 - 2 - 1 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 3
GP - 6 - 7 - 6 - 5 - 8 - 7 - 8 - 7 - 5
Ind - 8 - 8 - 2 - 6 - 7 - 6 - 5 - 7 - 6

SF could be interpreted as seeing a relatively solid rising trend.

[hiding behind a poster]

I wanted to reply to a point KeithM made on the other thread, but its closed.

Keith, you said that FF would, based on previous votes-to-seats ratios, get 51 seats with 26% of the vote. They wouldn't. If FG could only get 51 seats with 27% last time, with the benefit of a transfer pact with Labour, then there's no prospect of FF getting that figure with fewer first-preferences. Also, every party has a tipping-point, below which they start losing seats in droves, and the traditional seat bonus can actually turn negative. For instance, FG lost 22% of their first-preference vote in 2002, but lost a whopping 43% of their seats, while by picking back up virtually all of that vote in 2007, they also got back almost all of those seats - suggesting that their tipping point is somewhere in the mid-20s. We don't really know where FF's tipping point is, but they got 78 seats with 41% in 2007, 68 seats with 39% in 1992 - so its safe to assume their tipping point is somewhere between 39% and 26%. At best they'd get 46-47 seats.

[Edo]

Hmmm

I suppose its not surprising given the last 2 weeks - I wouldn't be jumping around the place saying that anything radical has happened.

If anything it will have concentrated the minds of any nervous nellies on the FF backbenches and coalition partners - to jump now would be electoral suicide - particularly when there is nearly 4 years to turn things around - there is absolutely nothing to gain by jumping ship now.

For the rest - FG and Kenny will be happy in a silly way - it will be good for the morale of the troops and might give the frontbench a bit more confidence to bone up on their portfolios - still doesnt get around the fact that FG are still extremely lacking in the "vision" department -this bounce is on a pure negative - then again a lot more could have gone to the left - which says something.

Labour will probably be the happiest of all the parties with this - they are far more comfortable in this kind of climate than either of the big two parties - giving out like hell and attacking everything without the need to come with a viable alternative of which there is a massive gaping hole - but , I supppose they were due a bit of good news and Im happy for Eamonn Gilmore who I have a time for.

SF - Well Im sure Factual will be along momentarily to draw the tangent between this and the exact moment that SF will win their overall majority some time in the distant future - actually its a bit disappointing for them - but I suppose their act of statesmanship of the Bank Guarantee in the face of Labour's populist opposition was going to cost them.

I know folks here and in the media will have a ball with this pole - but in the greater scheme of things it means diddly squat and would have to be the start of a trend that keeps up and includes next years local and European elections for me to take it seriously - this kind of thing is an excuse to let off steam with having to make any commitment on a ballot sheet - all that can be extrapolated from this poll is that the people didn't like the budget - period.

Regardless of political allegiances -given the furore over the budget and lets be honest here - it could have been far far more severe (IMO Its a missed opportunity in that regard) it really begs the question if the people of this country really really realise exactly how bad the country's current economic predicament is , how bad the global economic situation actually is - and much worse it is going to get over the next 18 months - this is going to be the worst case of economic recession,relocation,adjustment and realignment the world economy has seen for nearly 80 years - As bad as FF and the current government are - I have yet to see anything from the opposition parties (Im a member of FG) that really really says that they would or could do anything different and more importantly that they would have the courage to take on a economic spoilt electorate that is sobering up after the party - there are massive tough decisions to be taken in the next 5 years that will determine our course and where we want to be in 25 years time - I'm not overly optimistic that electorate are prepared to take the tough medicine that is necessary - they and the political spectrum at present - seem determined to fight yesterdays battles over who to blame for what.

[wombat]

Its only the start, FF in my opinion need to call an election cut their losses and let FG deliver all the gloom and doom for the next 4 years and then hope to get back in when things start to improve although I don't know if FF see it that way, they may hope they ride out the bad times and be in power for the upturn if it ever comes

One problem with that strategy - what happens if a FG/Labour govt. stabilised & turned the economy around?
Remember that many of the alternative govt. were in power during the 80's and will have learned from the mistakes that they made then. Our problem is that the current govt. have known only boom times - every problem could be solved by throwing our money at it. They are collectively incapable of cutting their cloth to measure. Those of you old enough to remember the 80's will remember that the problems were a direct result of the overspending by the FF govt. elected in 1977. The man behind that spending spree was later a founder of the PD's - Martin O'Donoghue - who is still revered by Mary Harney. Our present mess was caused by the policies of Charlie McCreevey - when I have money I spend it - or more accurately - when I have your money I P..s it away. It took 10 years of instability before spending was brought under control in the 80's. What we need to ensure is that FG/Labour have enough seats after the next election to form a stable govt. so they can fix the mess we're in.

[borntorum]

Of course, the main point of this poll was really to measure public reaction to the budget. The electorate do, as peadarmc says, have short memories and it is unlikely that this in any way indicates how the next GE will turn out.

But as a measure of public response to the budget, it's pretty damning.

As a measure of the absolute fukking stupidity of the Irish public, it's pretty damning.

Firstly, I don't give a toss about FF. They've shown themselves up to be incompetent with their 'handling' of the budget fiasco, and they deserve every attack on them.

But have FG done anything to deserve this poll rise? Have they articulated any sort of alternative vision on how to get us out of this ever-deepening hole we're in? Have they fukk. They have decided under the pathetic 'leadership' of that idiot Kenny to simply stoke the flames of public anger and to oppose each and every move by the government to try and control the public finances. If they were willing to show some degree of leadership and responsibility I would be delighted to see them take power, but at the moment they are making a bad situation a hell of a lot worse by siding with the most myopic elements of the public.

And it must be said, the Irish public are a bunch of selfish, short-sighted tossers with a disgusting sense of entitlement. They want brilliant public services, massive social welfare payments AND THEY DON'T WANT TO HAVE TO PAY FOR IT. The fact that this country will be bankrupted and many people unemployed in five years if we don't get a grip now has no bearing on them - as long as their pockets are untouched, the rest of the country (and in particular the poor and vulnerable they pretend to care about) can go to hell. The media are just as bad. The Irish Times rund editorials calling for fiscal rectitude and spending cuts, and then opposes each and every actual attempt to oppose discipline. And the IT is meant to be the sensible, serious paper!

It's depressing stuff. My worry is that this poll will just increase FF's propensity to put self-interest over the needs of the nation, and that things are going to get a hell of a lot worse. Stephen Collins is probably right today when he says that an election based on economic reality is necessary sooner rather than later, and the only combination afterwards that can get us out of this hole is FF-FG. Desperate times call for desperate measures

[Blueshirt1]

It all brings a tear to my eye - that I may yet live to see a day when FG are the largest political party in these Isles in terms of Dáil seats - they have always been the largest in terms of heart and honesty - that politics and politicians can hope that it and they can cease to be by-words for corruption and greed, a position they have been placed in by FF. Roll on the locals and Europeans in 2009 and roll on the next GE -though please let FF suffer on the spit for a while more - just to ensure they are well and truly done (for).

Happy happy days.

[lostexpectation]

The Red C poll in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post shows that for the first time since polling began, Fine Gael is seven points ahead of the main government party.

since the year of our lord?