Sunday 26th SBP RedC Poll - FF 26% (-10) FG 33% (+5)

[draiocht23]

That is spot on. Traditionally FF could find out that their leader was an axe-murderer and still they would be loyal to the party. The loyalty of FF supporters has always been rock solid. What is interesting is that FF's support level this time suggests that all but the core support has defected, a seriously worrying sign, or that if they have got non-core support, some of their core has defected, a disaster.

This sort of result is something that should not happen to FF. They should have a rock solid unbreachable minimum. Somehow the party has dropped through a number that it was always presumed by academics and FFers could never be breached. Remember also FF's disastrous locals saw the previous REDC poll giving them 29%. So they are 3% below where REDC had them before their local elections disaster.

Hmm, even George Bush has higher approval ratings....ouch!

[toxic avenger]

Theme Tunes for the Parties

And Sinn Fein's Robert McCartney song:

[ame="http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=iLyzwFwiEXc"]YouTube - Fun Boy Three...Our Lips are Sealed[/ame]

[goosebump]

Hmmm

I suppose its not surprising given the last 2 weeks - I wouldn't be jumping around the place saying that anything radical has happened.

If anything it will have concentrated the minds of any nervous nellies on the FF backbenches and coalition partners - to jump now would be electoral suicide - particularly when there is nearly 4 years to turn things around - there is absolutely nothing to gain by jumping ship now.

For the rest - FG and Kenny will be happy in a silly way - it will be good for the morale of the troops and might give the frontbench a bit more confidence to bone up on their portfolios - still doesnt get around the fact that FG are still extremely lacking in the "vision" department -this bounce is on a pure negative - then again a lot more could have gone to the left - which says something.

Labour will probably be the happiest of all the parties with this - they are far more comfortable in this kind of climate than either of the big two parties - giving out like hell and attacking everything without the need to come with a viable alternative of which there is a massive gaping hole - but , I supppose they were due a bit of good news and Im happy for Eamonn Gilmore who I have a time for.

SF - Well Im sure Factual will be along momentarily to draw the tangent between this and the exact moment that SF will win their overall majority some time in the distant future - actually its a bit disappointing for them - but I suppose their act of statesmanship of the Bank Guarantee in the face of Labour's populist opposition was going to cost them.

I know folks here and in the media will have a ball with this pole - but in the greater scheme of things it means diddly squat and would have to be the start of a trend that keeps up and includes next years local and European elections for me to take it seriously - this kind of thing is an excuse to let off steam with having to make any commitment on a ballot sheet - all that can be extrapolated from this poll is that the people didn't like the budget - period.

Regardless of political allegiances -given the furore over the budget and lets be honest here - it could have been far far more severe (IMO Its a missed opportunity in that regard) it really begs the question if the people of this country really really realise exactly how bad the country's current economic predicament is , how bad the global economic situation actually is - and much worse it is going to get over the next 18 months - this is going to be the worst case of economic recession,relocation,adjustment and realignment the world economy has seen for nearly 80 years - As bad as FF and the current government are - I have yet to see anything from the opposition parties (Im a member of FG) that really really says that they would or could do anything different and more importantly that they would have the courage to take on a economic spoilt electorate that is sobering up after the party - there are massive tough decisions to be taken in the next 5 years that will determine our course and where we want to be in 25 years time - I'm not overly optimistic that electorate are prepared to take the tough medicine that is necessary - they and the political spectrum at present - seem determined to fight yesterdays battles over who to blame for what.

Excellent post as usual, Edo.

I agree with you entirely about the electorate not actually realising how grim our economic prospects are.

This Budget will ultimately be seen as a relatively benign budget. There is much worse to come, and the political landscape will witness massive shifts in support.

At this point I don't really care who is in power. Everybody seems to want to load on the National Debt to try and buy their way into Government. The country is slowly but surely signing away its future, and nobody has the balls to say stop.

[Myles_per_hour]

Hmm, even George Bush has higher approval ratings....ouch!

Oh wow. I hadn't noticed that. That is a shocking point.

[wombat]

In 21st centrury Ireland why should FF be immune to the type of collapse that previously only affected FG and Labour at different times?

No reason, the pity is that there is not going to be an election soon. However, even when they recover, the myth that they are the only party who can form a stable govt. is broken. No matter how the Indo spins it, people are willing to change, the job of FG & Labour is to work out a credible alternative approach - something less than an alliance but a coordination of attacks would help to reassure people that there is a credible alternative available.

[Fr. Hank Tree]

I agree with you entirely about the electorate not actually realising how grim our economic prospects are.

Not surprising, i suppose, when they were told by the former Taoiseach that the boom times were getting boomier, when they were told that anyone who complained was talking down the economy and would be better off killing themselves and when they're used to being bought off with pre-election ramped up spending sprees.

FF were in denial up until September of this year. So you can p*ss off with your bollox about them not realising this - your party didn't realise it at all FFS!!

[Fr. Hank Tree]

The electorate realise exactly what is going on. The problem is that the government are screwing over the most vulnerable people, instead of the people who deserve to be screwed over, to sort out a problem they themselves made and denied existed.

[White Horse]

If you think this vote is a vindication of FG's strategy I am not sure I agree. Its surely just FF voters seeking to protest and picking the nearest available party?

That is to say these are not organic sustainable votes and can switch back.

Factual, FF voters don't just switch to FG.

That is a bit like saying that SF voters are peeved and decide to vote DUP.

Perhaps you have better experience in Northern Irish politics, but these shifts from FF to FG don't happen.

We are witnessing something exceptional taking place in Irish politics. We don't know the extent yet.

However, we do know that Sinn Fein are practically bystanders on the sidelines. And that is a damning indictment of your party's strategy.

[draiocht23]

Oh wow. I hadn't noticed that. That is a shocking point.

Now...where's our Barack Obama?!

[bogtrotter]

If you think this vote is a vindication of FG's strategy I am not sure I agree. Its surely just FF voters seeking to protest and picking the nearest available party?

That is to say these are not organic sustainable votes and can switch back.

Exactly...This is just a reaction to a badly thought out budget.