Sunday 26th SBP RedC Poll - FF 26% (-10) FG 33% (+5)

[Kiss]

FG were very mildly anti-benchmarking. They should have come out a lot more strongly against it.

Have you read any of Richards personal manifestos?

[Kiss]

What do you mean "these isles?"

Do you not remember the famous speech by Enda saying we need to become the majority party, rejoin the UK, the take over Westminster?

Maybe I was high.

[White Horse]

What do you mean "these isles?"

Jeez Bobby, don't you recognise Achill, Arran etc as part of Ireland?

[Myles_per_hour]

The poll results really are astonishing. Yes FF have done through a hellish week (their own creation) but a 10% collapse is in polls an earthquake. That scale of change should not happen. It is nuclear in terms of impact. For example, the 'massive collapse' in Brian Lenihan support after the tape controversy was only 5%, and the 'massive swing' to Robinson was only 4% (MRBI). The collapse of Reynolds' government, resignation of ministers, the collapse of Ahern's negotiations with Labour etc in total cost FF an absolutely unprecedented 7%. The government has not collapsed (yet), the cuts have not hit in people's schools and pockets, farmers are not fully aware of what they have lost, there are other hits yet to be experienced, and yet . . . they have already dropped 10%.

Equally for Fine Gael and Labour, an increase on the scale of 5% for each, is incredible. Remember Mary Robinson's gain was 4% on total from Lenihan, yet each of the two main opposition parties on their own got more than that. And this is before the effects of the cuts even hit!

Fianna Fáil will probably climb back in November's poll, but then in January and February the impact will hit. Then in March or April a mini-budget is likely, with more cuts and more anger.

This is not likely to be a one-off.

[toxic avenger]

The poll results really are astonishing. Yes FF have done through a hellish week (their own creation) but a 10% collapse is in polls an earthquake. That scale of change should not happen. It is nuclear in terms of impact. For example, the 'massive collapse' in Brian Lenihan support after the tape controversy was only 5%, and the 'massive swing' to Robinson was only 4% (MRBI). The collapse of Reynolds' government, resignation of ministers, the collapse of Ahern's negotiations with Labour etc in total cost FF an absolutely unprecedented 7%. The government has not collapsed (yet), the cuts have not hit in people's schools and pockets, farmers are not fully aware of what they have lost, there are other hits yet to be experienced, and yet . . . they have already dropped 10%.

Equally for Fine Gael and Labour, an increase on the scale of 5% for each, is incredible. Remember Mary Robinson's gain was 4% on total from Lenihan, yet each of the two main opposition parties on their own got more than that. And this is before the effects of the cuts even hit!

Fianna Fáil will probably climb back in November's poll, but then in January and February the impact will hit. Then in March or April a mini-budget is likely, with more cuts and more anger.

This is not likely to be a one-off.

No, you're right, and I don't think FF realise it. It's going to become entrenched, just as happened to Major after September 92. They can't buy their way out this time.

[White Horse]

The poll results really are astonishing. Yes FF have done through a hellish week (their own creation) but a 10% collapse is in polls an earthquake. That scale of change should not happen. It is nuclear in terms of impact. For example, the 'massive collapse' in Brian Lenihan support after the tape controversy was only 5%, and the 'massive swing' to Robinson was only 4% (MRBI). The collapse of Reynolds' government, resignation of ministers, the collapse of Ahern's negotiations with Labour etc in total cost FF an absolutely unprecedented 7%. The government has not collapsed (yet), the cuts have not hit in people's schools and pockets, farmers are not fully aware of what they have lost, there are other hits yet to be experienced, and yet . . . they have already dropped 10%.

Equally for Fine Gael and Labour, an increase on the scale of 5% for each, is incredible. Remember Mary Robinson's gain was 4% on total from Lenihan, yet each of the two main opposition parties on their own got more than that. And this is before the effects of the cuts even hit!

Fianna Fáil will probably climb back in November's poll, but then in January and February the impact will hit. Then in March or April a mini-budget is likely, with more cuts and more anger.

This is not likely to be a one-off.

Good analysis. I was with an FF supporter this evening when these figures broke. He was ashen faced. FF voters "don't do protest" in his opinion. He was worried that this could be the start of a seismic shift in FF support.

In 21st centrury Ireland why should FF be immune to the type of collapse that previously only affected FG and Labour at different times?

[factual]

Good analysis. I was with an FF supporter this evening when these figures broke. He was ashen faced. FF voters "don't do protest" in his opinion. He was worried that this could be the start of a seismic shift in FF support.

In 21st centrury Ireland why should FF be immune to the type of collapse that previously only affected FG and Labour at different times?

If you think this vote is a vindication of FG's strategy I am not sure I agree. Its surely just FF voters seeking to protest and picking the nearest available party?

That is to say these are not organic sustainable votes and can switch back.

[Myles_per_hour]

Good analysis. I was with an FF supporter this evening when these figures broke. He was ashen faced. FF voters "don't do protest" in his opinion. He was worried that this could be the start of a seismic shift in FF support.

That is spot on. Traditionally FF could find out that their leader was an axe-murderer and still they would be loyal to the party. The loyalty of FF supporters has always been rock solid. What is interesting is that FF's support level this time suggests that all but the core support has defected, a seriously worrying sign, or that if they have got non-core support, some of their core has defected, a disaster.

This sort of result is something that should not happen to FF. They should have a rock solid unbreachable minimum. Somehow the party has dropped through a number that it was always presumed by academics and FFers could never be breached. Remember also FF's disastrous locals saw the previous REDC poll giving them 29%. So they are 3% below where REDC had them before their local elections disaster.

[alonso]

Theme Tunes for the Parties

Fianna Fail

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QL15Ya5fsgo]YouTube - Shampoo - Trouble[/ame]

Fine Gael

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E372fuerleM]YouTube - MC5-Kick out the Jams[/ame]

Greens

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GugsCdLHm-Q]YouTube - Queen-I Want to Ride My Bicycle[/ame]

Labour

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPQGeJYaAes]YouTube - Pulp - Help The Aged[/ame]

PDs

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgQfrsvr-3Y]YouTube - Green Day - Redundant[/ame]

[turdsl]

[QUOTE=White Horse;1254272]Good analysis. I was with an FF supporter this evening when these figures broke. He was ashen faced. FF voters "don't do protest" in his opinion. He was worried that this could be the start of a seismic shift in FF support.

In 21st centrury Ireland why should FF be immune to the type of collapse that previously only affected FG and Labour at different times?[/QUOTEmandate
F.F. no longer have a mandate to govern, their promises are all broken their former leader was kicked out,their present leader has not got the support of the people.Harney got a bad vote herself and her party is gone, she has no reason to be there as she is not able for the job anyway.