How long with the current government last?

[Myles_per_hour]

There seems to be a consensus among commentators and political parties that this government will not last the full term. The fact that Jackie Healy Rae of all people gave an ultimatum to the government shows just how much danger it is in.

On the very first major issue they lost 2 TDs, with two having given ultimata that they have cancelled after today's latest version of the medical card mess.

Next week they face the nightmare of defending the school cutbacks. And this is just the beginning.

So how long guys do you see the government lasting?

My personal view is that we will have a general election by June 2009. I expect the government finances will get a whole lot worse, leading to a mini-budget in March or April and cuts far more severe than experienced so far. The remaining independent TDs will cut lose by then if they have not already done so. Between now and then and couple of FF TDs will break ranks on cuts that particularly hit their constituencies. On the very first cutback a number indicated that they were wavering, and last week's cuts will be mild compared to what will arise. Meanwhile the Dublin South by-election will have taken place and that will be a gain for the opposition. A combination of FG, Labour, SF, independents plus rebel FFers will defeat the government. (The FF rebels will believe that if they go into an election at any stage linked to the cuts they will be doomed. But if they go before the electorate having 'defended' their constituents, they will avoid the bloodbath.) The growing grumbling about Cowen's accident-prone nature, Lenihan's poor judgement, and Coughlan's lightweightness will also add to the destabilising mix, with FF TDs wondering if there is any other leader in the FF wings who could show better judgement and find better ministers. So the government will disintegrate either at the mini-budget or in the Finance and Social Welfare Bill votes subsequently, especially if as seems likely there will be further education cuts, fees are re-introduced and taxes are increased, as is likely if the deficit is heading for €20 billion (which is thought quite likely).

So my expectation is a government collapse linked to a mini-budget in March or April, and a general election in May or June.

[katy brock]

I'd say Cowen will try a reshuffle first. Demote Coughlan and Lenihan and try to bluff it out for another while. In the meantime, Fine Gael have to get rid of Kenny.

[droghedasouth]

Government will collapse in November/December 2009 when it finds itself unable to agree a budget in the face of deteriorating circumstances notwithstanding savings already made in the mini-Budget which they will have to bring in next Spring.

[jmcc]

I'd say Cowen will try a reshuffle first. Demote Coughlan and Lenihan and try to bluff it out for another while. In the meantime, Fine Gael have to get rid of Kenny.

Harney will be the first to be removed but they have to get some of the dissidents back on side first. Lenihan has a lot of clout in FF because of the dynasty effect so he may be left in place for a while. Mary Palin is also a major problem. It might have been better to have a Dublin TD instead of her but Cowen might not want to do too much of a reshuffle.

Regards...jmcc

[Tulach]

Richard Bruton needs to get to the top of FG first, he will make a huge change in the opposition. I still don't think FG will want a general election until the worst of this recession is over

[katy brock]

Harney will be the first to be removed but they have to get some of the dissidents back on side first. Lenihan has a lot of clout in FF because of the dynasty effect so he may be left in place for a while. Mary Palin is also a major problem. It might have been better to have a Dublin TD instead of her but Cowen might not want to do too much of a reshuffle.

Regards...jmcc

Yes. Come to think of it, Harney is a dead man/woman walking. Who would want the health brief though? Who is daft enough?

Hanafin?

[thetruth]

Cullen or Roche have all the right credentials.