RedC Poll this weekend - what's likely?

[aodh_rua]

Given that we're approaching the last weekend of the month, I presume we're getting a RedC poll in the SBP this Sunday (or Saturday evening if you're kerrynorth )

Such a poll would have been taken today and yesterday, so what's it likely to show? Polls are only polls, but a severe FF drop could make a lot of back benchers and councillors feel uneasy, especially as the Government is not as stable as we've come to expect.

And if FF do drop, where are their supporters moving? Gilmore has done well in the media, so perhaps a bounce for Labour? FG should pick up too, while the Greens deserve to take a hit.

I'll leave the SF predictions to factual.

[David Cochrane]

I presume we're getting a RedC poll in the SBP this Sunday

Yup, I just texted Pat Leahy to check, he says there's one this weekend.

[mccafferty cat]

What were the results of the last poll?

I'd predict the following:

1) Government down
2) Opposition up
3) Sinn Fein stagnation means nothing, and is in fact part of a slow-burn drip-feed strategy arising out of the 2005 IRA statement giving up the guns, murder, and suchlike

[Kerrygold]

What did the last one say?

[FutureTaoiseach]

My hunch:

FF 31%
FG 31%
Labour 12%
SF 10%
Greens 5%
PD 1%
Ind/SP/SWP etc. 10%

[White Horse]

My hunch:

FF 31%
FG 31%
Labour 12%
SF 10%
Greens 5%
PD 1%
Ind/SP/SWP etc. 11%

FF could be lower, high 20's I think, and FG will be around 35.

[mccafferty cat]

The first (and last) time that FF and FG were on level pegging was the MRBI poll of October 1982. (it got a mention in yesterdays Irish Times mag.) I don't think we've quite reached that point yet

[aodh_rua]

The results from September 22 were:

FF 36 down 4, FG 28 up 3, Lab 9 down 1, SF 9 down 1, Greens 7 unchanged, PD 3 up 1, Others 8 up 1.

They also asked whether people had confidence in the Government's ability to steer us out of the current economic downturn which came out 39% agree\strong agree to 50% disagree\strongly disagree. It'll be interesting to see if they ask that again.

[Digout]

if there is a poll, when is it taken? I got polled last week for IMS i think...

[aodh_rua]

if there is a poll, when is it taken? I got polled last week for IMS i think...

It's usually the Monday and Tuesday of the preceeding week I think, so today and yesterday.