Sunday Business Post REDC Poll 21/9/2008

[goosebump]

Bit disappointed from a FG perspective. This time last year th party was in the 30s IIRC. Have to be reaching those levels again.

As for FF, they were in the mid-30s virtually for the entire period 2002-2007 and look what happened there. In fact this is a great poll for FF!

A mindbogglingly inaccurate analysis.

What planet are you on?

In case you have not noticed, there has been a change in taoiseach. That always produces a honeymoon period of around 6 months when FF rockets (if it is a FF taoiseach changes) and a FG slump.

This time last year there had not been a change in taoiseach. Therefore there had been no bounce through a honeymoon period.

This poll shows the honeymoon is wearing off, too early for FF's longterm benefit. It shows FG back at general election levels even with a FF honeymoon. ANd it shows FF, contrary to what normally happens, falling in summer when governments invariably rise.

If you think FG being ahead of its general election numbers even before the cutbacks hit and the budget is launched is bad for FG, and that FF being 5% off their general election level before they face into a tough budget and cutbacks is good for FF, you are clueless. FF were banking on being around 40, not the mid-30s, a month from now, and they were banking on FG being in the low 20s, not the high 20s. FF is where it didn't want to be until after the budget, and FG is exactly where it wanted to be at the start of the new Dáil term. And you think this is a 'great' poll for FF and a 'disappointing' poll for FG? Unbelievable.

I can guarantee it will by the FGers who will be smiling on the basis of this poll, and that it will be the FFers that will be worrying.

Dear God.

This poll show 1 thing:

People in Ireland are still voting the same way they voted 5 years ago, and that the apathy is the most potent influence in Irish politics.

[droghedasouth]

Bit disappointed from a FG perspective. This time last year th party was in the 30s IIRC. Have to be reaching those levels again.

As for FF, they were in the mid-30s virtually for the entire period 2002-2007 and look what happened there. In fact this is a great poll for FF!

This time last year, FF crumbled when Bertie finally arrived at Mahon and the penny dropped that he was unbelievable.
When Manchester Bertie finally shuffled off stage left, Cowen got the benefit of that distraction being removed.

FF are now begining to suffer from mismanagement of the economy after only acknowledging (with the advance of the Budget to early October) that things are bad. With so much pain yet to felt by the electorate, things will only get worse for FF.

The Stock Exchange is typically a leading indicator and the 60% decline since early Spring 2007 says a lot about our future prospects.
The ISEQ is hopefully at its lowest, but that would suggest that it will be up to 18 months before the economy starts to recover.

Opinion polls tend to react to what has happenthose who have already lost their jobs have already suffered and owners of small businesses are hurting.
But lots of people in secure pensionable employment have not suffered any pain because the state is still taxing and spending based on Cowen deluded budget from December 2007.
Wait for Lenihan's first budget in October 2008, his second in January 2009 and his last budget in July 2009.
Be prepared for an election any time from October 2009.

[riker1969]

There are too many bloody polls and as Haughey used to say "the only poll that counts is the one on Election day". We are four years out from an election. If the recession lasts well into 2010 and people are still sitting on negative equity(2011) then FF will get hammered in an election 2011/2012.However if we learned any lesson from the last election that's the old chestnut of FF declining in an election is gone. The election is crucial itself and ,thus these polls are political porno-you might get excited, but you don't know yet if you'll get laid! Edited

[supamolli]

A mindbogglingly inaccurate analysis.

What planet are you on?

In case you have not noticed, there has been a change in taoiseach. That always produces a honeymoon period of around 6 months when FF rockets (if it is a FF taoiseach changes) and a FG slump.

I'd be tempted to ask you what planet you are on with this "always" business. You'd swear it was a regular occurrence

Please tell me when was the last time there was a change in a FF taoiseach and what were the poll results for the subsequent six months?

By my reckoning the last FF taoiseach to be replaced by another FF taoiseach was Lynch with Haughey in 1979. Does it happen more often on your planet?

[Coggy]

Any details of who the "others" consist of ? and has anyone here ever been interviewed by a redc poll ? cause i haven't

[borntorum]

Bit disappointed from a FG perspective. This time last year th party was in the 30s IIRC. Have to be reaching those levels again.

As for FF, they were in the mid-30s virtually for the entire period 2002-2007 and look what happened there. In fact this is a great poll for FF!

A mindbogglingly inaccurate analysis.

What planet are you on?

In case you have not noticed, there has been a change in taoiseach. That always produces a honeymoon period of around 6 months when FF rockets (if it is a FF taoiseach changes) and a FG slump.

This time last year there had not been a change in taoiseach. Therefore there had been no bounce through a honeymoon period.

This poll shows the honeymoon is wearing off, too early for FF's longterm benefit. It shows FG back at general election levels even with a FF honeymoon. ANd it shows FF, contrary to what normally happens, falling in summer when governments invariably rise.

If you think FG being ahead of its general election numbers even before the cutbacks hit and the budget is launched is bad for FG, and that FF being 5% off their general election level before they face into a tough budget and cutbacks is good for FF, you are clueless. FF were banking on being around 40, not the mid-30s, a month from now, and they were banking on FG being in the low 20s, not the high 20s. FF is where it didn't want to be until after the budget, and FG is exactly where it wanted to be at the start of the new Dáil term. And you think this is a 'great' poll for FF and a 'disappointing' poll for FG? Unbelievable.

I can guarantee it will by the FGers who will be smiling on the basis of this poll, and that it will be the FFers that will be worrying.

Welcome back Analyser/Insider2007

[goosebump]

Any details of who the "others" consist of ? and has anyone here ever been interviewed by a redc poll ? cause i haven't

Not being able to register in the main poll, we can only presume you're concerned about the Socialist Party's percentage of the 'Others' vote?

[droghedasouth]

There are [color=#FF0000]two[/color] many bloody polls and as Haughey used to say "the only poll that counts is the one on Election day". We are four years out from an election. If the recession lasts well into 2010 and people are still sitting on negative equity(2011) then FF will get hammered in an election 2011/2012.However if we learned any lesson from the last election that's the old chestnut of FF declining in an election is gone. The election is crucial itself and ,thus these polls are political porno-you might get excited, but you don't know yet if you'll get laid!

There are [color=#FF0000]too[/color] many people on p.ie who cannot spell.
Don't be so sure that we wont have an election in late 2009, early 2010.
Cowen is knackered already.

His government will crumble as the impact of his budgetary financial mismanagement as Finance Minister comes home to roost.
Just think forward to what things will be like in the winter of 2009-2010.

[Supermanpolitician]

There are [color=#FF0000]two[/color] many bloody polls and as Haughey used to say "the only poll that counts is the one on Election day". We are four years out from an election. If the recession lasts well into 2010 and people are still sitting on negative equity(2011) then FF will get hammered in an election 2011/2012.However if we learned any lesson from the last election that's the old chestnut of FF declining in an election is gone. The election is crucial itself and ,thus these polls are political porno-you might get excited, but you don't know yet if you'll get laid!

There are [color=#FF0000]too[/color] many people on p.ie who cannot spell.
Don't be so sure that we wont have an election in late 2009, early 2010.
Cowen is knackered already.

His government will crumble as the impact of his budgetary financial mismanagement as Finance Minister comes home to roost.
Just think forward to what things will be like in the winer of 2009-2010.

I hate bad grammar too, but the "winer" of 2009-2010?

LOL. I once got an email from a work colleague asking if "you's" could meet with a client as she had to leave early.

[droghedasouth]

There are [color=#FF0000]two[/color] many bloody polls and as Haughey used to say "the only poll that counts is the one on Election day". We are four years out from an election. If the recession lasts well into 2010 and people are still sitting on negative equity(2011) then FF will get hammered in an election 2011/2012.However if we learned any lesson from the last election that's the old chestnut of FF declining in an election is gone. The election is crucial itself and ,thus these polls are political porno-you might get excited, but you don't know yet if you'll get laid!

There are [color=#FF0000]too[/color] many people on p.ie who cannot spell.
Don't be so sure that we wont have an election in late 2009, early 2010.
Cowen is knackered already.

His government will crumble as the impact of his budgetary financial mismanagement as Finance Minister comes home to roost.
Just think forward to what things will be like in the winer of 2009-2010.

I hate bad grammar too, but the "winer" of 2009-2010?

LOL. I once got an email from a work colleague asking if "you's" could meet with a client as she had to leave early.

Lynn Truss eat your heart out - surely you told him the correct spelling of the vernacular version of the 2nd person plural is "youse".

At least I know that the correct spelling is "winter" not my typo of "winer".
The sad thing is that so many people on p.ie correctly spell the wrong word, confusing for instance "two" with "too".

P.S. why do we not have a spell checker on p.ie?