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Thread: Sunday Business Post REDC Poll 21/9/2008

  1. #21
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    Re: Sunday Business Post REDC Poll 21/9/2008

    where's factual?

    whats up?

    why have we not been told that this is a vindication (he LOVES that word) of the sinn fein peace strategy ........


    come on factual. we're all waiting.

  2. #22
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    Re: Sunday Business Post REDC Poll 21/9/2008

    Is there a point in that post..... anywhere?
    The point is minor fluctuations in the polls don't' solve the underlying problems keeping FG from government.
    Signed, Universal (LGBT...QRSTUVWXYZ)

  3. #23
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    Re: Sunday Business Post REDC Poll 21/9/2008

    [quote=foxrockman]
    Quote Originally Posted by hiding behind a poster
    Quote Originally Posted by borntorum
    Quote Originally Posted by "Defeated Romanticist":1gxr4h6i
    Cowen's been very low key for a long while meanwhile their has been nothing but bad news and still FF are at 36%!

    This time 5 years ago we were at around 30-33%. This is a desparate opinion poll for Labour. If Gilmore has a bad locals will he go?

    Still govt and supporters at around 50% in the polls, that is very impressive.
    Yep, pretty much. I dont think anyone should pay these mid-term polls much attention unless they show major shifts. But to be at 36% during a recession and when the new Taoiseach has done little to catch the public attention is a pretty healthy position for FF to be in
    The effect of the recession on people's lives is only starting to kick in, and has a lot more kicking to go. Furthermore, governments tend to improve support during the summer recess, as they have much more control of their media exposure, while opposition parties don't have the oxygen of the Dail sitting to get their stories into the news. Also, what's gonna be a tough budget hasn't even happened yet. FF will fall further.


    I have never heard so much nonsense in a long time , do you know anything about politics ?? stop fooling yourself this poll is a disaster for FG only up 3 . The PDs who are finished are up 1 and you want to believe that the second largest party is doing well when they rise 3 in a recession . Cop on and start facing reality .
    FG should be up at least 7 points min if the people had any faith in it's leadership they would be up 11 .[/quote:1gxr4h6i]


    I'm not even gonna distinguish that nonsense by addressing any of it.
    "Elite - a small superior group; esp one that has a power out of proportion to its size." (Oxford English Dictionary)

    The majority cannot therefore be the elite.

  4. #24
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    Re: Sunday Business Post REDC Poll 21/9/2008

    Quote Originally Posted by borntorum
    Quote Originally Posted by hiding behind a poster
    FF will fall further.
    Maybe they will. But big deal. FF have been a lot lower in the past, and have come back up at election time. They will improve before the next election too, as all incumbents do. FG would want to be pretty much neck-and-neck with FF (at a guess) at this point to be confident of taking power next time. The polls in the UK indicate change of government is likely in that country. This poll suggests no such change here
    No, you can't really compare the two countries in that regard. Ireland's voting system is far more complicated than the FPTP system in the UK, where they don't have to factor in issues like transfers, who'll coalesce with whom, and how many seats each percentage is worth. However, its worth pointing out that IF FF polled 36% and FG 28% in an election, FF would lose plenty of seats, while FG would hold what they have and maybe gain a couple more. Given that we came within 3 seats of an FG-Labour-Green government last time, such a possibility would become very likely, should those figures be repeated.
    "Elite - a small superior group; esp one that has a power out of proportion to its size." (Oxford English Dictionary)

    The majority cannot therefore be the elite.

  5. #25
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    Re: Sunday Business Post REDC Poll 21/9/2008

    [quote=hiding behind a poster]
    Quote Originally Posted by borntorum
    Quote Originally Posted by "hiding behind a poster":31s1eq98
    FF will fall further.
    Maybe they will. But big deal. FF have been a lot lower in the past, and have come back up at election time. They will improve before the next election too, as all incumbents do. FG would want to be pretty much neck-and-neck with FF (at a guess) at this point to be confident of taking power next time. The polls in the UK indicate change of government is likely in that country. This poll suggests no such change here
    No, you can't really compare the two countries in that regard. Ireland's voting system is far more complicated than the FPTP system in the UK, where they don't have to factor in issues like transfers, who'll coalesce with whom, and how many seats each percentage is worth. However, its worth pointing out that IF FF polled 36% and FG 28% in an election, FF would lose plenty of seats, while FG would hold what they have and maybe gain a couple more. Given that we came within 3 seats of an FG-Labour-Green government last time, such a possibility would become very likely, should those figures be repeated.[/quote:31s1eq98]

    I accept what you say to an extent. Certainly, the UK and here is not directly comparable. However, my point is that polls there consistently show the Tories well ahead and Labour struggling, and that therefore, even though most people expect Labour to close the gap once the campaign begins, it still seems likely that the Conservatives will win. There is no such evidence here. While it's probably true that if FF got 36% they would lose the election, it is highly unlikely that if an election was called tomorrow, that FF's ratings would stay at that low level. Historically, the incumbent party slumps mid-term and then recovers, even if it's a particularly unpopular government. FF will have to fall a lot lower, and FG will have to rise a lot higher, before FGers can say with any certainty that they are confident of winning an election. Surely the period from 2002 to 2007 has taught FG that.

  6. #26
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    Re: Sunday Business Post REDC Poll 21/9/2008

    What it does appear to show is that people dont see the left as their salvation from crony capitalism and dublin 4 liberalism(of the type that lauds mass immigration so long as they flood working class areas).

    Perhaps as the Lisbon treaty has shown ,a return to nationalism and protecting the sovereignty of Irish citizens against the vagaries of globalisation,crony capitalism and the nefarious effects of the EU will be the political centre ground as opposed to any right/ left battle.

  7. #27
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    Re: Sunday Business Post REDC Poll 21/9/2008

    Quote Originally Posted by alonso
    Cnosdiering there's what abouit 30% of people who would vote FF even if Biffo punched a baby in Mass, any inroads are welcome. Judging by your posts so far I think it's rich for you to question people's knowledge of politics

    which when you think about it is a worrying thought, just think of what could be achieved if people didn't vote based on history / family party loyality / local personalities and actually voted for party's based on a combination of policies and achievements.......
    Enda Kenny on FF government: “We’re in this mess, not because Fianna Fáil policies have failed, but because they have succeeded.”

  8. #28
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    Re: Sunday Business Post REDC Poll 21/9/2008

    it looks like F.F. have peaked

  9. #29
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    Re: Sunday Business Post REDC Poll 21/9/2008

    [quote=R Paul]
    Quote Originally Posted by "David Cochrane":175x8536
    Tomorrow's SBP/Red C Poll

    FF 36 down 4, FG 28 up 3, Lab 9 down 1, SF 9 down 1, Greens 7 unchanged, PD 3 up 1, Others 8 up 1.
    Maybe the PDs should hold off on winding the party up! That would appear to be higher than in the last couple of opinion polls. [/quote:175x8536]

    My Questions is that when will the next general election be for us to sign the unfinished contract again ?

    Is that the reasons why we saw the former chairman this morning ?

    L.o.l

  10. #30
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    Re: Sunday Business Post REDC Poll 21/9/2008

    Quote Originally Posted by Defeated Romanticist
    This time 5 years ago we were at around 30-33%.
    "We"? Were you not a fervent PeeDee until just over a year ago?

    To be fair, even though FF got you, FG look to have a chance of picking up FutureTaoiseach, so honours would be even politically.

    Quote Originally Posted by CookieMonster
    I'm just waiting for Factual and how he is going to spin -1 as a vindication of Sinn Fein's someting or other strategy. Or he could be really boring and say it's statistically insignificant.
    Is Factual (a misnomer if ever there was one) not a she?

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