POLL: big drop in support for FF

[factual]

No REDC SBP pole today suggesting that they are taking a summer break from their tracking polls.

The S. Independent are running a poll story this morning showing a bit drop in support for FF with large gains by Lab, Grn, a and FG (and little change for SF and PDs). This indicates the bad economy is eating away government support. It will be interersting to see if this is mirrored in RedC at the end of September.

FF 36 (-6)
FG 23 (+2)
Lab 12 (+3)
Greens 6 (+2)

(Change in SF and PD not statistically significant)

There is also a drop in NO voting among people:
Lisbon:
NO 44 (-8)
YES 42 (+1)
DONT KNOW 14 (+7)

[Nagy]

All the usual clowns will still be out in droves to vote for Fascist Failures next election.

[fergalr]

Is Dave even around any more to take trolls in hand? Are there any moderators who would like to get rid of Nagy?

[FutureTaoiseach]

The reason RTE largely ignores the Indo polls is that there sample sizes are tiny - 500 - compared to at 1,000+ when they were hiring IMS to do their polls. BTW its "polls" not "poles". I don't think we can divine anything from this poll. The Indo should bring back IMS or insist on larger samples.

[kerrynorth]

It's a Sindo poll i.e. toilet paper. Any poll showing SF at 2% whereas all the other reliable polls show them in a 8-10% range can only be taken with a pinch of salt. This also of course rubbishes their Lisbon poll as well as if you are underestimating the leading No party that voted circa 90% No by 6-8% then that poll is of no value.

PS factual - it's POLL not POLE.

[Cillian]

In any case you wouldn't care to share where the Progressive Democrats and Sinn Féin are both at?
Just out of interest to me

And to Fergalr: I wonder that too sometimes, in less than three weeks he's managed to make 512 monotonic posts.

[factual]

The reason RTE largely ignores the Indo polls is that there sample sizes are tiny - 500 - compared to at 1,000+ when they were hiring IMS to do their polls. BTW its "polls" not "poles". I don't think we can divine anything from this poll. The Indo should bring back IMS or insist on larger samples.

Even at 500 people the drop in FF support is statistically significant.

[factual]

In any case you wouldn't care to share where the Progressive Democrats and Sinn Féin are both at?
Just out of interest to me

And to Fergalr: I wonder that too sometimes, in less than three weeks he's managed to make 512 monotonic posts.

Due to the small sample size the percentages for the smaller parties are unreliable.

[factual]

It's a Sindo poll i.e. toilet paper. Any poll showing SF at 2% whereas all the other reliable polls show them in a 8-10% range can only be taken with a pinch of salt. This also of course rubbishes their Lisbon poll as well as if you are underestimating the leading No party that voted circa 90% No by 6-8% then that poll is of no value.

PS factual - it's POLL not POLE.

I think that the changes are more significant than the levels particularly for FF which is a larger party. The changes for hte smaller parties are not statistically signidfant.

PS Kerrynorth we missed your updates from SBP yesterday.

PPS I have changed spelling from pole to poll.

[Trefor]

No factual - it's just within the margin of error for a poll with a sample of 500.