Hi…good morning…just thinking…any ideas of issues which have the potential to bring this government down?
Or indeed Ministers who might be responsible for toppling the government…
Some possibilities;
Mc Dowell decides to deport onkule (again) bertie steps in and pds resign?
Some rebel ff’er really attacks Harney on health policy
Health policy in general….
Any thoughts?
Those are all non-starters in terms of bringing down governments. What's far more likely is something we dont know already-some leaked document, for example, or some corrupt payment.
Oh I agree! just ball hopping initally!
This is a tough one to call. The Irish parliamentary system is perhaps the most predictable in Europe at the moment, with the Dail having become nothing better than a talking shop and rubber stamp for decisions already taken outside the parliament in closed sessions. FF are probably more responsible for this than anyone else, though the opposition parties haven't done much to stop it.
Be that as it may, there is virtually no tradition of FF backbenchers kicking up a row on matters of health or education. The only time when they do refuse to toe the line is when it personally affects them, as in the case of Beverly Cooper Flynn, or when powerful monied interests are at stake, as in the case of Cafe Bars or the smoking ban. . Since there are no shadowy figures with brown envelopes to back up the case for improvements in health and education. In any case Ahern's vicelike grip on the party has ensured that their protests never bring the party to absolute crisis point. So we can discount any moves on this score from FF backbenchers entirely.
The only thing that could possibly bring down this power-addicted government is the PDs walking for some reason. It won't happen any other way. Given Harneys willingness to be constantly talked round by the Taoiseach this is unlikely to happen. Short of Bertie and Brian Cowan appearing on national television dressed in SS uniforms and tucking into a breakfast of scrambled babies they'll almost certainly go to 2007.
"Partout où la liberté règne elle est incessamment attaquée et très souvent en péril” – Jean Jacques Rousseau.
The PD's can't bring Bertie down because if they left, the Indos from the FF gene-pool will prop him up.The only thing that could possibly bring down this power-addicted government is the PDs walking for some reason. It won't happen any other way. Given Harneys willingness to be constantly talked round by the Taoiseach this is unlikely to happen. Short of Bertie and Brian Cowan appearing on national television dressed in SS uniforms and tucking into a breakfast of scrambled babies they'll almost certainly go to 2007.
I wouldn't be too sure that they would actually. Considering that the price of having an Independent dependent government would almost certainly be yet another divisive abortion referendum, I'd say Bertie would probably prefer to take his chances with an election than have to deal with that headache.Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach
"Partout où la liberté règne elle est incessamment attaquée et très souvent en péril” – Jean Jacques Rousseau.
[/quote:3jbo22pd]I wouldn't be too sure that they would actually. Considering that the price of having an Independent dependent government would almost certainly be yet another divisive abortion referendum, I'd say Bertie would probably prefer to take his chances with an election than have to deal with that headache.The PD's can't bring Bertie down because if they left, the Indos from the FF gene-pool will prop him up.
I don't think the independents would be too pushy on abortion - what's much more pressing is that they return to their constituencies with some goodies to show for their time in the Dail - without them they're screwed. Fact is that it benefits FF, the PDs, and the independents for there to be some kind of high-minded PD walkout sometime in 2006, and therefore that's whats most likely to happen. They just haven't found an issue that suits everyone yet.
"Elite - a small superior group; esp one that has a power out of proportion to its size." (Oxford English Dictionary)
The majority cannot therefore be the elite.
It is quote conceivable that the Independents will still have the balance of power after the next GE and with the FF-PD vote at 36%, don't completely rule out them remaining in power with support from Indos.
Getting "goodies" for their constituencies is par for the course when dealing with indos, that would tend to be the bottom line. Assuming Bertie wants to last until 2007 I'd say some of them might try and get a bit more on top of that. In any case in many of the FF indo constituencies a push to get another abortion referendum would actually play quite well with their core supporters.
"Partout où la liberté règne elle est incessamment attaquée et très souvent en péril” – Jean Jacques Rousseau.
What if Cowan got sick of waiting and influenced a FF backbench rebellion.
The crown above the red hand is that of the O'Neill rulers of Ulster---not the Saxe-coborg gotha usurpers crown
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