Can Fianna Fail lead us out of Recession?

[mairteenpak]

Given the rapid decline in our economic fortunes, with increasing inflation, oil prices, interest rates, loss of competitiveness, collapse of the construction industry, loss of manufacturing employment, detoriating public finances, does this Government have any strategy or plan for our economic well being.

While the international environment and and external circumstances ( not our fault honest) have been blamed, what is the plan to deliver us from this mess other than batten down the hatches and hope for the best.

Can Fianna Fail lead us to the Promised Land?

[White Horse]

No, as in the past, it will take an FG led government to turn it around.

Then FF will come in and p1ss it all away.

[returning officer]

What historical precedent do you have for this?

It certaintly was not 1982 to 1987, when the public finances got more out of control, depsite taxes in 60%+, when interest rates where in the teens, and unemployment was kept below 20% because of those who emigrated during Fitzgerald's watch.

It was hardly 1994 to 1997, after the public finances had been put on the right track in 1987 by McSharry, supported by Haughey, supported by Dukes. The period was a gift to FG and have allowed them to falsely claim a part in the economic development of the State leading to the Celtic Tiger.

Perhaps you are thinking of 1922 to 1932 and just blaming FF for the civil war...

[just_society]

Seeing as they led us into this mess, I would have very little faith in their ability to get us out of it.

By pursuing growth policies heavily dependent on construction and housing construction in particular, they have

1) Eroded competitiveness by encouraging high house prices, and the resultant wage demands that that creates.

2) Mis-focused a lot of human resources away from export industries in favour of domestic construction,

3) Overspent on key infrastructural projects.

4) Not encouraged a second and third level education policy with greater emphasis on science and technology.

FG/Lab have the uncanny knack of coming to power following FF created recessions, taking the hard decisions necessary to turn it around, and then losing power and letting FF take the credit. Read 1973, 1982 and debatably 1994.

Interesting times ahead with FF having to take the hard decisions tthis time.

[Aindriu]

Given the rapid decline in our economic fortunes, with increasing inflation, oil prices, interest rates, loss of competitiveness, collapse of the construction industry, loss of manufacturing employment, detoriating public finances, does this Government have any strategy or plan for our economic well being.

While the international environment and and external circumstances ( not our fault honest) have been blamed, what is the plan to deliver us from this mess other than batten down the hatches and hope for the best.

Can Fianna Fail lead us to the Promised Land?

Ye are joking right? It was them that got us into this mess and tried to deny it to boot.

[mairteenpak]

The thread is not a historical discussion. It is about the options open to our Government, in coping with the economic mismanagement of this Government. The fact that this administration walked into the quicksand, with its eyes open, gives us little confidence in their ability to find their way out.

[rockyracoon]

Being a bit of an egg-head, but we aren't in a recession. We are seeing markedly slower growth but it seems for the most part most people are keeping their jobs. For the time being anyway. FF have a hard rope to tow this time around. While they knew fully well what was coming for us in terms of increased commodity and interest rate costs in 2007, they let the property market bubble along until the election was won. Now, they just seem to be sitting back and hoping the worst will be over by the next election. No doubt we'll see some sort of stimulus package before the next election if it's needed - maybe one even if we don't need it.

Unfortunately, it looks like our high home cost base is here to stay. The ability of builders to sit on unoccupied property is just trulely amazing. I've never seen anything like it before. Usually there is some "stickiness" on the supply side during an economic slowdown as sellers just can't bring themselves to sell at non-boom prices. So maybe Ireland is unique. We'll just have to wait.

I'm more worried that a new government might get in on a basis of creating a long term positive economic climate and then the same old crowd get back in and squander it again. I know its superficial analysis on my part but it seems that the once the Democractic party in the US begins to put the economy on a decent economic-financial footing the Republicans get in and look at all the lovely lolly they can give back in tax breaks to the wealthy and put the whole economy on bad footing again. Bush has just been terrible. I wonder if we'll see something similar in the next 10 years?

[Aindriu]

Being a bit of an egg-head, but we aren't in a recession. We are seeing markedly slower growth but it seems for the most part most people are keeping their jobs. For the time being anyway. FF have a hard rope to tow this time around. While they knew fully well what was coming for us in terms of increased commodity and interest rate costs in 2007, they let the property market bubble along until the election was won. Now, they just seem to be sitting back and hoping the worst will be over by the next election. No doubt we'll see some sort of stimulus package before the next election if it's needed - maybe one even if we don't need it.

Unfortunately, it looks like our high home cost base is here to stay. The ability of builders to sit on unoccupied property is just trulely amazing. I've never seen anything like it before. Usually there is some "stickiness" on the supply side during an economic slowdown as sellers just can't bring themselves to sell at non-boom prices. So maybe Ireland is unique. We'll just have to wait.

I'm more worried that a new government might get in on a basis of creating a long term positive economic climate and then the same old crowd get back in and squander it again. I know its superficial analysis on my part but it seems that the once the Democractic party in the US begins to put the economy on a decent economic-financial footing the Republicans get in and look at all the lovely lolly they can give back in tax breaks to the wealthy and put the whole economy on bad footing again. Bush has just been terrible. I wonder if we'll see something similar in the next 10 years?

We need a tax on empty property, that would get the units on the market be it for sale or rental. There is a whole block empty near me for two years now - disgusting.

[rockyracoon]

We need a tax on empty property, that would get the units on the market be it for sale or rental. There is a whole block empty near me for two years now - disgusting.

Jaysus, watch yourself. The builders will be coming after you with pitch forks or bull dozers.

[returning officer]

Given the rapid decline in our economic fortunes, with increasing inflation, oil prices, interest rates, loss of competitiveness, collapse of the construction industry, loss of manufacturing employment, detoriating public finances, does this Government have any strategy or plan for our economic well being.

While the international environment and and external circumstances ( not our fault honest) have been blamed, what is the plan to deliver us from this mess other than batten down the hatches and hope for the best.

Can Fianna Fail lead us to the Promised Land?

Inflation has fallen.
Interest rates have remained steady.
Manufactoring employment bizarely has risen in the last year.
Oil prices are beyond the control of even Brian Lenihan. Ditto dollar/euro rate and the credit crunch.

This talk of downturn, recession (a rather technical term) and general malaise is usually exaggerated.


But anyway lets' deal with two valid points which can be addressed here:

1) Collapse of the contsruction industry, or more accurately residential construction. That will be stagnant for the next 18 months minimum while prices stabilise eg 3 bed semis are rising now. The rest still have to reach their plateau. But with the population still rising, employment still rising (up 2.6%) and with a workforce of 2.3m, and just over the hump of a democraphic peak - demand, in the sense of people needing houses, remains. Their ability to purchase has been restrained by the banks (again beyond control of government) and their desire to purchase is at its lowest for years (market sentiment).
Let market forces lead to what it may. Tough luck on anyone who made a bad choice to begin with - some developers will go to the wall (sob, sob) while the whinger brigade will blame everyone but themseleves for having bought a shoebox, 60 miles from Dublin, with no local facilities.
Personal responsibility will make a come back.

2) Public finances:
These are in serious trouble. The only way to deal with it cut, slash, cancel and by embargo.
1) Vanity capital projects need to be cancelled - eg metro north. The necessary ones need to go on - borrow if necessary.
2) Any project which does not develop economic growth (or is a social necessity) needs to be cut eg quangos, ngos funding.
3) Public sector recruitment embargo is an absolute necessity and should be enforced with very limited exceptions escpecially health.
4) Social housing be scrutinised very closely. What will their effect on house prices in the specific locality?
5) A disipline/productivty drive is required throughout the public service. Get the numbers down by sacking persistent late-comers, those behind in flexi time, over-use of the interent, rude to other workers, incompetant.
6) Delay any non-economic development spending as long as possible.
7) Aim to reduce total social welfare spending.
8) Privitised the cost of health as much as possible.
9) In fact privitise as much of government spending as is politcally possible.
10) Every budget should start with a blank page rather than last year +8%.

Just thank God we have Cowen leading rather than Enda (or Bertie for that matter), that Lenihan is in finance rather than Rabbitte (as would have been the cae if the rainbow had won), and that the Greens and PDs are the junior force in government, rather than Labour with a weak FG.