Tomorrow's Sunday Business Post REDC Poll

[FutureTaoiseach]

So in affect no change.

You're a funny man. I see a bright future for you in your party of choice.

Well tony, the margin of error is probably 2% and there is no change for anyone above or below that, so in effect there has been no change.

The only thing that has changed is if they were GE results you would be looking at the following seats:

FF 70
FG 61
Lab 21
SF 4
GP 4
PD 1
IND 5

So FF would be in opposition and this has been the case for all of the polls since the last GE.

It seems strange that you are taking 2 seats from the Greens but with a higher share of the vote care to explain?

[Anorakphobia]

So in affect no change.

And the change from the GE is

FF 37 - 4
FG 31 + 4
Lab 10 n/c
SF 8 -1
GP 7 + 1
PD 2 n/c
Ind n/c

Not as interesting as I hoped, but we've closed the gap by 8 points in 10 months.

We polled 4.9% in the GE.

ye were polling double figs 12 months ago and still polling 8 and 9% before election.
stop painting some surge taht doesn't exist.
at best ye are holding yer own

[qtman]

Exclusive

FF 37 +1
FG 31 -1
Lab 10 ~
Greens 7 ~
Sinn Fein 8 -1
PDs 2 ~

So then, no change really. All changes there are statistically irrelevant, as far as I can tell.

Its the most boring poll I've ever seen, and that's saying something in the context of Irish politics.

[JCSkinner]

It's great to see the Greens getting their comeuppance for their U-turns and betrayal. That'll show 'em!

Respeck for that user name!
I also am pleased to see the ongoing Green immolation.

[hiding behind a poster]

Very close to what I predicted. I wonder now will FG finally realise that their fixation with Bertiegate is helping FF and hurting them?

FT, FF are down 4% from their election performance in that poll. FG are up 4% from theirs. If, despite that, Bertiegate is actually HURTING FG (your theory, not mine), then why are FG up at historic, 26-year highs of over 30%, in FIVE POLLS IN A ROW, if Bertiegate is harming them?

Kindly answer the question.

But you are down since the last poll. That after months of harrassing Bertie over the Tribunal and FF support has gone up, can't your party take the hint and lay off and let the Tribunal come to its own conclusions?

I'll ask you again, FT - if the voters are unimpressed with FG demanding standards from Ahern and FF, why are they above 30% in FIVE successive polls? Please answer the question.

You were also over 30% in a few polls in the start of the election campaign and it proved remarkably soft by the time of polling-day when you fell back to 27%. So forgive me if I am decidedly unimpressed.

No, FG were over 30% in ONE poll, at the very start of the campaign.

[ibis]

So in affect no change.

You're a funny man. I see a bright future for you in your party of choice.

Well tony, the margin of error is probably 2% and there is no change for anyone above or below that, so in effect there has been no change.

The only thing that has changed is if they were GE results you would be looking at the following seats:

FF 70
FG 61
Lab 21
SF 4
GP 4
PD 1
IND 5

So FF would be in opposition and this has been the case for all of the polls since the last GE.

And as was the case in the polls before the election, I seem to remember. People like to say they won't vote for the incumbent government.

[qtman]

So in affect no change.

And the change from the GE is

FF 37 - 4
FG 31 + 4
Lab 10 n/c
SF 8 -1
GP 7 + 1
PD 2 n/c
Ind n/c

Not as interesting as I hoped, but we've closed the gap by 8 points in 10 months.

We polled 4.9% in the GE.

ye were polling double figs 12 months ago and still polling 8 and 9% before election.
stop painting some surge taht doesn't exist.
at best ye are holding yer own

We've never polled in double figures.

I'm not trying to suggest a surge.

I'm just correcting an inaccuracy.

[tonys]

If those are the results of the poll and FG can make no more progress than that when all kinds of sh[size=7]1[/size]t are being thrown at FF & Bertie, then your goose is cooked, permanently.

But surely they'd be in power on those figures?

They’d be in power on the figures a week before the election as well, but then push came to shove and they weren’t.

There will never be a better time for FG to make progress at FF’s expense, it’s not happening and if not now, when?

[hiding behind a poster]

If those are the results of the poll and FG can make no more progress than that when all kinds of sh[size=7]1[/size]t are being thrown at FF & Bertie, then your goose is cooked, permanently.

But surely they'd be in power on those figures?

They’d be in power on the figures a week before the election as well, but then push came to shove and they weren’t.

There will never be a better time for FG to make progress at FF’s expense, it’s not happening and if not now, when?

It is happening, Tonys. I'll say it again, slowly. FG are up 4% since the election. FF are down 4%. That is called "making progress".

[qtman]

[quote=hiding behind a poster]

Very close to what I predicted. I wonder now will FG finally realise that their fixation with Bertiegate is helping FF and hurting them?

FT, FF are down 4% from their election performance in that poll. FG are up 4% from theirs. If, despite that, Bertiegate is actually HURTING FG (your theory, not mine), then why are FG up at historic, 26-year highs of over 30%, in FIVE POLLS IN A ROW, if Bertiegate is harming them?

Kindly answer the question.

But you are down since the last poll. That after months of harrassing Bertie over the Tribunal and FF support has gone up, can't your party take the hint and lay off and let the Tribunal come to its own conclusions?

I'll ask you again, FT - if the voters are unimpressed with FG demanding standards from Ahern and FF, why are they above 30% in FIVE successive polls? Please answer the question.[/quote:2shb6p0x]

Its multifactorial obviously, and Ahern is a factor, but a large part of it is post-electoral congnitive dissonance, which is typical of all electoral systems.

Sarkozy is experiencing the same thing in France.