Tomorrow's Sunday Business Post REDC Poll

[hiding behind a poster]

Bit unparliamentary, NotDevSon. I'm shocked. According to a poll undertaken on 23rd and 24th April 2007, by TNS/MRBI Fianna Fail were at 34% whilst Fine Gael were at 31%. FG polled 27 per cent in the May 2007 election.This goes to show that apportioning undecideds even weeks away from an election is fraught with danger.

But if the method of apportioning undecideds was correct in the final poll, then how can the same method be wrong in the April poll? You can't have it both ways.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Bit unparliamentary, NotDevSon. I'm shocked. According to a poll undertaken on 23rd and 24th April 2007, by TNS/MRBI Fianna Fail were at 34% whilst Fine Gael were at 31%. FG polled 27 per cent in the May 2007 election.This goes to show that apportioning undecideds even weeks away from an election is fraught with danger.

But if the method of apportioning undecideds was correct in the final poll, then how can the same method be wrong in the April poll? You can't have it both ways.

It might relate to the fact that the undecideds are greater the further back you are from an election, and consequentially perhaps how they are apportioned would have a much bigger influence on the poll results the further you are away from an election, with accuracy consequently increasing the closer you get?

[hiding behind a poster]

Bit unparliamentary, NotDevSon. I'm shocked. According to a poll undertaken on 23rd and 24th April 2007, by TNS/MRBI Fianna Fail were at 34% whilst Fine Gael were at 31%. FG polled 27 per cent in the May 2007 election.This goes to show that apportioning undecideds even weeks away from an election is fraught with danger.

But if the method of apportioning undecideds was correct in the final poll, then how can the same method be wrong in the April poll? You can't have it both ways.

It might relate to the fact that the undecideds are greater the further back you are from an election, and consequentially perhaps how they are apportioned would have a much bigger influence on the poll results the further you are away from an election, with accuracy consequently increasing the closer you get?

That's not statistically possible in the examples referred to. For instance, the April MRBI poll had FF at 34% and FG at 31%, and in the raw poll data there were 20% undecideds. In the final MRBI poll the weekend before polling, FF were at 41% and FG at 27%, with the raw data still containing 15% undecideds. Those 5% who made up their minds in that period could not statistically have caused that big a change in the figures - simple mathematics doesn't permit it. So for MRBI to get the election result spot on in their final poll, with 15% still undecided at that point, shows just how good their method of apportioning undecided voters is. Hence there's no reason to doubt their curent figures, that have FF at 36% and FG at 31%.

[thegeneral]

This poll is very good for FF and must cause concenr for the opposition. One of the politics.ie FG posters caveats is that "FF never gain support when the Dáil is in session", but then another of these caveats last year was "FF never gain support during a general election campaign", which as anyone who remembers last May will recall, was quite inaccurate. I have never really liked poll threads here, largely due to the arrogance and hectoring style of FG posters, so would say to newbies not to get too irked if you fell peeved by what you read here.

General, the reason some FG posters are getting annoyed is that FF posters are just as willing to say "this is a bad poll for the opposition" - no matter what. And none of you - NONE OF YOU - will address the fact that FG, in five successive national polls, are polling at 31/32%. This is substantially above what they polled in the last election, and substantially above what they polled in the run up to that election. That makes these polls excellent for FG, as it indicates that they're reaching a new, higher, plateau of support - and consolidating it. Would you care to address that point?

We have had persistent and repetitive attacks on our party by spokespeople of your party for the past month and a half and yet our support has risen! By contrast yours has fallen! Okay both changes are in the margin of error yet you and your cadre, while demanding other posters answer your questions and spin, avoid the issue of how this swing has happened. The only significant factor here is FG's level of support? Come off it. In any case this poll plus 1-2% extra, at a minimum, given our under-estimation by RedC would result in at a minimum 40-50 extra county council seats, based on current LEAs, and approx 30-40 on town councils, which would almost exactly restore those seats lost in '04. Euro elections are harder to extrapolate so I won't bother in the absence of candidates.

Regarding the other issue FG have got over 30% in the last 3 RedC polls, kudos. As the only Irish political party to sack a leader on the basis of opinion poll ratings it means Enda is safe for another while yet. Personally I think it easy to explain why FG support is at this figure at present. From 02-02 and through 05/06 SF and Labour were both polling much better than they are now. FG weren't a convincing alternative to FF. Voters currently averse to FF have apparently decided plumPing for FG is the best way to get FF out in the short-term. In short FG have proven that they currently deserve support from the Irish electorate. Whether this is sustainable is another issue so I wouldn't get too excited over it yet.

[thegeneral]

Am starting to wonder if one particular criticism of telephone polls in the US - namely that they exclude some people with just mobile phones - applies in the case of telephone polls in Ireland maybe including Red C? Does this undermine their accuracy?

You are right, FT. That is why people in politics pay less attention to Red C polls than TNS/mrbi.

You were highly critical though of that argument when it was made about Red C, during the election.

Joined: 25 Nov 2007
Total posts: 1584
[0.17% of total / 16.00 posts per day]
Find all posts by NotDevsSon

I see on your profile you "joined" the site on November 25th. How do you know what FT thought during the general election? Presumably you had another identity which you dropped. May I ask why?

[Auditor #9]

Joined: 25 Nov 2007
Total posts: 1584
[0.17% of total / 16.00 posts per day]
Find all posts by NotDevsSon

I see on your profile you "joined" the site on November 25th. How do you know what FT thought during the general election? Presumably you had another identity which you dropped. May I ask why?

Could be that the post counter only goes as far as 20,000 so you have to pick another name before that (and at the rate NDS posts you can see he'd have to change now and again but then again maybe he got bored of his name)

Coming soon: smiffy II

but then again, maybe he's completely new and has trainspotted this site forever

[Limerick Lad]

You are right, FT. That is why people in politics pay less attention to Red C polls than TNS/mrbi.

You were highly critical though of that argument when it was made about Red C, during the election.

Joined: 25 Nov 2007
Total posts: 1584
[0.17% of total / 16.00 posts per day]
Find all posts by NotDevsSon

I see on your profile you "joined" the site on November 25th. How do you know what FT thought during the general election? Presumably you had another identity which you dropped. May I ask why?

Many people just visit this site, read threads which inerest them and may never register or they may decide to register and start posting many months after they first come across the site.
Also all posts by any poster can be viewed by clicking on "Find all posts by ********"

[hiding behind a poster]

We have had persistent and repetitive attacks on our party by spokespeople of your party for the past month and a half and yet our support has risen! By contrast yours has fallen! Okay both changes are in the margin of error yet you and your cadre, while demanding other posters answer your questions and spin, avoid the issue of how this swing has happened

Quite correct, both changes are within the margin of error. And the fact remains that this poll shows FF down 5% on their election performance, and FG up 4% on theirs. More significantly (and don't for a second think they haven't noticed this in FF HQ), FG are now establishing themselves at a new, higher, plateau of support than anything they've been on in the last 25 years. And FF won't want that, because what's suited them over that period was a weak FG and an opposition divided into several disparate hues. That is now changing. I think the reason FG are at this new level of support is because politics is once again polarising between pro-FF and anti-FF. And that suits FG. And I'll happily debate the ins and outs of this poll with anyone here - but you must admit that the hysterical responses of some here, along the lines of "FG continue at unprecedented figure in the 30s - Kenny must go!!" is not political debate, but trolling.

[quote:3hzm8sem] The only significant factor here is FG's level of support? Come off it.

That's not what I said. But what is significant about the last 5 national polls is not the regular up-ones and down-ones of national polls that are seen every month - what is significant is that one major party is establishing a solidly higher base of support. That is the significant thing in this poll. FF going from 6 points below their election figure to five points below it is not nearly as significant as the fact that they are still five points behind that figure in the first place.

In any case this poll plus 1-2% extra, at a minimum, given our under-estimation by RedC would result in at a minimum 40-50 extra county council seats, based on current LEAs, and approx 30-40 on town councils, which would almost exactly restore those seats lost in '04. Euro elections are harder to extrapolate so I won't bother in the absence of candidates.

General, you know full well that 2004 was an absolute disaster for FF - 32.9% of the vote, and 100 seats lost. By all means spin the regaining of 40-odd council seats as a triumph, but be honest with yourself - we all know it'll happen anyway. It'd be like FG coming back with 38 seats last May, and spinning THAT as a triumph, because they were up from 31.

Regarding the other issue FG have got over 30% in the last 3 RedC polls, kudos. As the only Irish political party to sack a leader on the basis of opinion poll ratings it means Enda is safe for another while yet. Personally I think it easy to explain why FG support is at this figure at present. From 02-02 and through 05/06 SF and Labour were both polling much better than they are now. FG weren't a convincing alternative to FF. Voters currently averse to FF have apparently decided plumPing for FG is the best way to get FF out in the short-term. In short FG have proven that they currently deserve support from the Irish electorate. Whether this is sustainable is another issue so I wouldn't get too excited over it yet.

[/quote:3hzm8sem]

I've no problem with that analysis - at least its proper debate - though I disagree with your suggestion that FG sacked a leader on the basis of opinion polls. The final poll that triggered the sacking of Bruton was basically the final straw, as there was already serious dissatisfaction within FG at the time with Bruton's lame performance since 1997. Its like when a football team sacks a manager - say Liverpool sack Benitez, after losing to, say, Birmingham - of course you don't sack the manager just for losing to Birmingham - but if that came after losses to Wigan, West Ham and Fulham, a Champions League exit at the group stage, etc etc , you just reach a tipping point, where enough is enough. As for the rest of that paragraph, you're quite right, in my opinion, about why FG are gaining support - its because they're once again becoming the dominant anti-FF party, their extra TDs mean extra media coverage, there's far less disparity on the opposition benches, etc etc. And of course it remains to be seen how solid that extra support is - but clearly the more polls show FG above 30%, the more solid that support is.

[red365]

Going on the poll, the GP is up 2% on its GE performance. Some of that comes from the 4% decline in FF support.

Greens have almost certainly lost some of their traditional support since the election, and have therefore picked up some from elswhere. Kudos.

Any sense as to what the breakdown of that would be? How many have supporters have you lost, and politically speaking, where have your new supporters come from?