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  1. #21
    Round tower Round tower is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Finbar10 View Post
    There's a better link here: https://www.irelandthinks.ie/single-.../poll-abortion with more detailed results. The survey was done by "Ireland Thinks" which as their site says is "is the Irish polling arm of xy Campaigns Ltd". Can't say I'm familiar with them.

    It generally does seem out of kilter with previous (even fairly recent) surveys by RedC and IPSOS/MRBI. Maybe there has been a big shift in opinion. However, they do use random telephone polling. As was seen in UK election polling of this type, unless one is very careful, it can be hard to screen out certain demographic biases (even though one tries to do that). Other companies use this also but it can be hard to get right. I would have more confidence if such a result had been produced by RedC or similar established company. Then we'd have previous past results with similar methodology to compare them with (and a relative shift would be evident). This may be a shift or it may be an artifact of their methodology or telephone sampling techniques.
    That link says enough, polling by telaphone is what done mainly in GB and we have seing what the real poll results are comparing to the actual results, the 20% who said they did not know or rather not say, did they include those when they mentioned a poll just said No or just put down the phone
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  2. #22
    wombat wombat is offline
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    I think this 12 week limit needs teasing out, it seems arbitrary, I suspect its a medical recommendation but I have no idea what the rationale is.
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  3. #23
    wombat wombat is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Emily Davison View Post
    Here are the figures per age group - it excludes don't knows:

    18-24 85% to 15%
    25-34 77% to 23%
    35-44 69% to 31%
    45-54 75%to 25%
    55-64 61% to 39%
    65+ 51% to 49% only group not in favour of Repeal, but just barely

    Also odd is that the 45-54 age group is strong that the age group above and below. There must be a reason for this. Something that happened to that age group. Anyone with any ideas.
    My guess is that a poll organised by a newspaper is pretty superficial so I doubt there is much to gain in trying to analyse the details.
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  4. #24
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sync View Post
    Name 5.
    I can name 3.

    1. Enquiries Referendum.
    2. Nice I
    3. Lisbon I
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  5. #25
    Krusty Cork Krusty Cork is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by wombat View Post
    I think this 12 week limit needs teasing out, it seems arbitrary, I suspect its a medical recommendation but I have no idea what the rationale is.
    I believe it used as it is the end of the first trimester but I'm not 100% sure

    Edit

    Medical abortion has been shown to be effective through the first trimester (12 weeks) and has been successfully used during the second trimester. (13)

    https://www.womenonweb.org/en/page/5...first-10-weeks
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  6. #26
    TheBlonde TheBlonde is offline

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    Three comments on this.

    Polling is a very in exact science. I've worked in the business and am back in college doing further research. Polling companies have convinced people that they are representative of the population, but in actual fact a sample is only considered representative due to complex mathematical formula. Really, there is a high chance that any poll is not accurate at all. That is what happened in the U.K. So this may or may not be representative of current opinion. However, polls do influence public opinion, and often when there seems to be a clear margin in favour, those who are not passionate about the topic, can stay away, assuming their vote is not required. That is the downside of positive polls for the yes side.

    Explaining the 75% in favour amongst the 45-54, as a member of this age group, I can attest like the last poster that we were at the vanguard of the 1983 referendum where we were subject to horrific tales of hell and damnation but we were too young to vote. We subsequently tried to chip away at it, with marches in college and the small victories of the right to information and the right to travel. Many of us, who consider ourselves moderate and feminists, have been villified over the years and laughed at by younger women who think the fight for equality is over and say things like "oh I'm not a feminist." But our daughters are feminists and they are the girls leading this fight. It is so heartening to see the dedication of the current college generation to this referendum. However, I am not convinced we will get repeal this time. I hope for my daughter's sake and that of her friends that we do. But even if there is no repeal, it will come in time.

    The 12 week time limit was added due to the abortion pills. The committee wanted them to be available from doctors rather than have people order them online as is currently happening.
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  7. #27
    Krusty Cork Krusty Cork is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBlonde View Post
    The 12 week time limit was added due to the abortion pills. The committee wanted them to be available from doctors rather than have people order them online as is currently happening.
    Cool thanks for that information
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  8. #28
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by Congalltee View Post
    I don’t like telephone polls.
    But including “rather not say” redeems that slightly (they are more likely to be anti-choice).

    The main problem is the question:
    “If a referendum were held to repeal the 8th amendment that is to make abortion unrestricted during the first 12 weeks of pregnancy how would you vote?"”

    The actual question will go far beyond that eg removing people’s veto on abortion, allowing parliament and courts (domestic and European) expand, with categories beyond 12 weeks eg rape allegations (which will scare some men) and possibly dealing with women’s health (basically 1967 act regime).

    That 47% can’t support this narrow proposition is worrying.
    Another problem seen in Brexit and the Trump election is that phone polls tend to be land-line only, which excludes growing numbers in some countries that use only mobile phones.
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  9. #29
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBlonde View Post
    Three comments on this.

    Polling is a very in exact science. I've worked in the business and am back in college doing further research. Polling companies have convinced people that they are representative of the population, but in actual fact a sample is only considered representative due to complex mathematical formula. Really, there is a high chance that any poll is not accurate at all. That is what happened in the U.K. So this may or may not be representative of current opinion. However, polls do influence public opinion, and often when there seems to be a clear margin in favour, those who are not passionate about the topic, can stay away, assuming their vote is not required. That is the downside of positive polls for the yes side.

    Explaining the 75% in favour amongst the 45-54, as a member of this age group, I can attest like the last poster that we were at the vanguard of the 1983 referendum where we were subject to horrific tales of hell and damnation but we were too young to vote. We subsequently tried to chip away at it, with marches in college and the small victories of the right to information and the right to travel. Many of us, who consider ourselves moderate and feminists, have been villified over the years and laughed at by younger women who think the fight for equality is over and say things like "oh I'm not a feminist." But our daughters are feminists and they are the girls leading this fight. It is so heartening to see the dedication of the current college generation to this referendum. However, I am not convinced we will get repeal this time. I hope for my daughter's sake and that of her friends that we do. But even if there is no repeal, it will come in time.

    The 12 week time limit was added due to the abortion pills. The committee wanted them to be available from doctors rather than have people order them online as is currently happening.
    The medical profession is conservative in Ireland so getting those pills might not be as easy as it may seem. The IMO rejected repeal at their conference I think.
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  10. #30
    Catalpast Catalpast is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBlonde View Post
    Three comments on this.

    Polling is a very in exact science. I've worked in the business and am back in college doing further research. Polling companies have convinced people that they are representative of the population, but in actual fact a sample is only considered representative due to complex mathematical formula. Really, there is a high chance that any poll is not accurate at all. That is what happened in the U.K. So this may or may not be representative of current opinion. However, polls do influence public opinion, and often when there seems to be a clear margin in favour, those who are not passionate about the topic, can stay away, assuming their vote is not required. That is the downside of positive polls for the yes side.

    Explaining the 75% in favour amongst the 45-54, as a member of this age group, I can attest like the last poster that we were at the vanguard of the 1983 referendum where we were subject to horrific tales of hell and damnation but we were too young to vote. We subsequently tried to chip away at it, with marches in college and the small victories of the right to information and the right to travel. Many of us, who consider ourselves moderate and feminists, have been villified over the years and laughed at by younger women who think the fight for equality is over and say things like "oh I'm not a feminist." But our daughters are feminists and they are the girls leading this fight. It is so heartening to see the dedication of the current college generation to this referendum. However, I am not convinced we will get repeal this time. I hope for my daughter's sake and that of her friends that we do. But even if there is no repeal, it will come in time.

    The 12 week time limit was added due to the abortion pills. The committee wanted them to be available from doctors rather than have people order them online as is currently happening.
    Your a feminist

    - yet support the Mass Slaughter of innocent females?

    Females are the biggest victims of the Abortion Industry!
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