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  1. #21
    Spanner Island Spanner Island is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Erudite Caveman View Post
    The biggest threat IMO isn't the direct relationship between Ireland and any of those entities, but between Trump's US and the EU. It is pretty clear that he sees it as an economic rival to the US, and not a partner. That will get knotted up with increased pressures on NATO and reduced pressures on Russia. How all that plays out is anyone's guess.
    There was a flare up in eastern Ukraine yesterday... and reports of a Russian build up in the Arctic...

    It's probably nothing... time will tell...


    Regarding the EU... judging by what is going on and what is being said etc. the EU is probably under an unprecedented threat from both Moscow and DC...

    It's a divide and conquer strategy which will suit both Trump and Pootin even if they're not working together...
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  2. #22
    Franzoni Franzoni is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cellachán Chaisil View Post
    Fintan O'Toole isn't pulling punches today:

    Fintan O

    Of particular note is the line:

    There used to be talk that Fianna Fáil would establish a northern branch – who knew that it would be the DUP?


    A lot of posters on this site have been pointing out what O'Toole has now come around to seeing for some time now..

    We still haven't got straight answers about the NI loan book sale as outlined on the BBC spotlight programmes...Cash for ash,red sky and the Iris Robinson are all concerns for the the people of NI....Project Eagle/arrow concerns us...

    Could it be that the reluctance is because it will reflect badly on people on this side of the border that they were played for fools by the DUP and allowed cultural sensitivities to outweigh the cost to the citizens of this state...?
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  3. #23
    Franzoni Franzoni is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spanner Island View Post
    There was a flare up in eastern Ukraine yesterday... and reports of a Russian build up in the Arctic...

    It's probably nothing... time will tell...


    Regarding the EU... judging by what is going on and what is being said etc. the EU is probably under an unprecedented threat from both Moscow and DC...

    It's a divide and conquer strategy which will suit both Trump and Pootin even if they're not working together...

    The divide and conquer strategy in western society was well started before that by the inaction of so called centre politics to play fair......

    If i had a euro since last summer for every time i've heard someone say the Brits and the Yanks are right i'd be a rich man...

    As much as i detest FF at least they aren't as bad at the euro skeptic Tories of Trump style bitter and twisted gobshítes...

    I'll say though... they are in the last chance saloon along with FG......
    Last edited by Franzoni; 31st January 2017 at 11:24 AM.
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  4. #24
    Sailor Sailor is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spanner Island View Post
    We're between a rock and a hard place... no doubt about it...

    Brexit, Trump, the EU targeting the economic model they've known we've been pursuing for decades and worse, trying to do it retrospectively...

    It's fair to say I don't trust any of this particular Troika to act in the best interests of Ireland in any way shape or form...

    We are little more than observers which is very frustrating...

    This point in time is a point in time at which I actually feel some sympathy for the Irish Government because there's no easy or clear cut choices that can be guaranteed to be the best choices at this stage...

    It's a f***ing mess and we're uniquely in the midst of a triple whammy.
    It seems to me that the choice facing us must allow for the reality that our economic policy is heavily reliant on FDI, and if we accept that reality we must ask how tenable that model is going forward. And that brings us to the current reality that this model is under attack, both from Europe because of tax issues, and from the US - and not just Trump - who want the repatriation of both jobs and corporate profits. Whether that means that FDI can survive based purely on US companies getting easier access to European markets I simply don't know.
    And then, based on the uncertainties surrounding this side of the economy, we need to consider if the advantage swings to an exit from the EU and a closer relationship with the U.K., both in respect of trade and having regard to political considerations.
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  5. #25
    Erudite Caveman Erudite Caveman is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sailor View Post
    It seems to me that the choice facing us must allow for the reality that our economic policy is heavily reliant on FDI, and if we accept that reality we must ask how tenable that model is going forward. And that brings us to the current reality that this model is under attack, both from Europe because of tax issues, and from the US - and not just Trump - who want the repatriation of both jobs and corporate profits. Whether that means that FDI can survive based purely on US companies getting easier access to European markets I simply don't know.
    And then, based on the uncertainties surrounding this side of the economy, we need to consider if the advantage swings to an exit from the EU and a closer relationship with the U.K., both in respect of trade and having regard to political considerations.
    Not denying that isn't required, but now is not the time. Brexit has to take shape, and indeed the whole new realignment in the West before there is any clarity on what the alternatives involve. Otherwise we will just repeat the moronic mistake of the UK and have no idea what the implications are.
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  6. #26
    Sailor Sailor is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Erudite Caveman View Post
    Not denying that isn't required, but now is not the time. Brexit has to take shape, and indeed the whole new realignment in the West before there is any clarity on what the alternatives involve. Otherwise we will just repeat the moronic mistake of the UK and have no idea what the implications are.
    A reasonable point - and probably the best approach at this point is not to alienate the Brits by taking the sort of Eurocentric line that the likes of Hogan were advocating. We will get no thanks from the EU for doing so and it would be foolish not to continue to nurture the good relations and trade we have developed with the Brits.
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  7. #27
    Erudite Caveman Erudite Caveman is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sailor View Post
    A reasonable point - and probably the best approach at this point is not to alienate the Brits by taking the sort of Eurocentric line that the likes of Hogan were advocating. We will get no thanks from the EU for doing so and it would be foolish not to continue to nurture the good relations and trade we have developed with the Brits.
    Nevermind the Brits, we can't possibly alienate them in this situation. They know that their electorate has ************************************ us over, and will have to take whatever little blow-back comes their way as we try and salvage what we can. They also know that we have next to no interest in them being shafted, but they have created a situation where we are on one side of the line and they are on the other during the negotiations.
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  8. #28
    runwiththewind runwiththewind is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spanner Island View Post
    Even the staunchest Unionists must be under no illusion that they and NI are constantly taken for granted by Westminster...

    Scotland is starting to see this too with the sham meetings that are going on in relation to Brexit...

    An independent Scotland and an independent NI would be the best outcome imo... with a Celtic coalition of all three including ourselves when dealing with the EU.

    Unlikely to happen of course... but it's the outcome I'd prefer to see as I simply cannot see a UI or direct rule working out...
    Good God, do you really see a NI, which is as tribailst is it comes, walking off into the sunset, holding hands into the great unknown as an independent state? And do really see nationalist tolerating further distancing from the Rep.

    Repatriation is far more likely.
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  9. #29
    Socratus O' Pericles Socratus O' Pericles is offline
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    Funding: I cannot see Westminster being able or willing to afford the subvention to NI especially in lieu of the CAP.

    for every £10 earned by Northern Ireland farmers, £8.70 comes from the CAP.
    CAP payments critical to N Irish economy - Phil Hogan

    Border : Sinn Féin very strong on this:

    "The only way to ensure that the devastation that will come with Brexit is avoided, is if the democratic wish of the people of the north of Ireland is respected and we remain in the EU. Sinn Féin has argued at a local, national and European level for a special designated status to assure the north remains in the EU. It is time for the Irish Government to join us in our call for special designated status for the north of Ireland, within the EU."
    https://www.derrynow.com/news/eu-com...ireland/142757

    UI

    A component of Brexit negotiations policy for a Fine Gael-led government is that adequate provision is made for the possibility of Irish unity. SF obviousky cannot be seen to oppose that.

    As regards the left PBP welcomed the Brexit vote and say it should be respected. The vote is seen as a rejection of neo-corporatist, austerity driven Union and an opportunity to create a more "worker friendly" Europe. It's all very idealistic, not pragmatic in the narrow sense but they seem to be making headway nonetheless. People are very tired of living hand to mouth and seeing large financial institutions (first banks, then vulture funds)thrive at their expense.
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  10. #30
    Plebian Plebian is offline
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    Those are the broad sentiments in NI re Brexit.

    I'd be very sceptical of those sentiments making themselves felt at the ballot box in the Assembly elections and if that lack of will to express those sentiments transpires in the Assembly elections then how is anyone supposed to make head nor tail of NIs position on Brexit?

    I'm not sure what the OP is digging at FF about in the OP in relation to Brexit ( you might clarify Statsman and also give the gist of the O'Toole piece which is behind a pay wall for me).

    FG and probably SF are the ones who are going to be immediately involved in Brexit negotiations because they're the ones who are/were/will be? in Govt on both sides of the border during the Brexit process.
    Last edited by Plebian; 31st January 2017 at 12:05 PM.
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