SBP/RedC Poll - This Sunday

[krayZpaving]

The Sunday Business Post/RedC poll has just been published.

FF 36 (+4)
FG 32 (+1)
Lab 10 (-3)
Gr 7 (-2)
SF 9 (+2)
PD 2 (nc)

On the Lisbon Treaty, 45% said they would vote yes, 25% no and 30% didn't know.

54% said they did not believe Bertie Ahern's evidence to the Mahon Tribunal. up 12 percentage points since September.

[FutureTaoiseach]

I wonder will they ask about the Lisbon treaty?

[myk]

Does it come out every month now, or every two months? I don't remember one for late December.

[krayZpaving]

I think it's the last Sunday of every month, except December and August.

[bradán feasa]

I’m going out on a limb as I have 15mins of lunch to kill but there has been differential between both Polling companies over the last number of years which leads me to believe that FG will be lower than in the IT with FF slightly higher. It will show Labour at around 11 or 12 as the IT always overestimates Labour. It will show SF at 9 as the IT always underestimates SF. It will show PDs at 2 and the Greens at higher as the IT usually places the Greens on the lowside.

So
FF at 34
FG at 30
Labour at 12
Sinn Féin at 9
Greens at 8
PDs at 2
Indies at 5

But in reality but is all just show business this far from an election.

[Eddiepops]

Greens at 32%.

Nah, not really. I predict we have to be down though, considering how high we've gone in their recent ones.

Why does RedC always have us so much higher than Times IMRB?

[jerryp]

I'm prepared to wait until about 7pm on saturday when kerrynorth will reveal all !

[alltheway]

Sure there could be no harm in predicting Saturday evening

FF 5 %
FG 60%
Labour 10%
SF 8%
Greens 10%
PDs 2
Independants 5%

Jose Mourinho to realise he wants the irish Job
Scarlett Johansson to meet me out saturday night
Bulmers to cost only 2 euro on saturday night
No hangover Sunday

It could happen

[hiding behind a poster]

Does it come out every month now, or every two months? I don't remember one for late December.

A late December poll would be meaningless - you'd have to do the fieldwork just before Christmas, and no-one would be interested in taking the time to respond. Likewise, even among those who did, politics would be the furthest thing from their minds - so "don't know" answers to everything would be so high as to make the whole thing meaningless.


(But on this thread in general - PREDICTING opinion polls??? Come on, lads - seriously. Life's too short)

[Defeated Romanticist]

Does it come out every month now, or every two months? I don't remember one for late December.

A late December poll would be meaningless - you'd have to do the fieldwork just before Christmas, and no-one would be interested in taking the time to respond. Likewise, even among those who did, politics would be the furthest thing from their minds - so "don't know" answers to everything would be so high as to make the whole thing meaningless.


(But on this thread in general - PREDICTING opinion polls??? Come on, lads - seriously. Life's too short)

HBAP there is not going to be a GE any time soon so all these polls meen squat