SBP/RedC Poll - This Sunday

[factual]

I seem to remember various SF people saying that you would double or triple your representation in the last election. Instead you lost one seat. I wouldn't take too much satisfaction from any poll factual.

Sinn Féin did in fact increase both its share of the vote and its absolute number of votes and is the only party that has done so in each and every like for like election since the 1980s. Without putting too much emphasis on one poll, this poll suggests that the upwards trend continues for Sinn Féin.

This poll suggests nothing of the like at all. Before the GE, SF were on these numbers and above but the predicted SF breakthrough failed utterly to materialise and the party lost a TD.

PS. While FF may be argued to have done a lot for those who are already well off, it seems to me that it has not done enough for the least well off, those struggling to make ends meet in the Irish economy of today. This is probably something that more and more people will start to become concerned about as the media start to adopt a more balanced approach in its coverage of the social economy. Sinn Féin's analysis targeted on helping the least well off will come in to its own at this point and I think prove compelling to many voters. Sinn Féin would insist on a different typc of government if it were to be entering coalition, a government that puts much more emphasis on the least well off in Irish society.

[toxic avenger]

Why in all these years have neither I nor any single person I know never been asked for their political opinion by these pollsters, yet they seem to claim to represent the opinion of the nation?

[factual]

Why in all these years have neither I nor any single person I know never been asked for their political opinion by these pollsters, yet they seem to claim to represent the opinion of the nation?

They ask about 1000 people for each poll. This is 0.025% of the population. So you would not expect to be asked very often (although I have). Importantly, statistically speaking the law of large numbers tells us it is not necessary for a poll to ask a large % of people for it to be accurate; the number needs only to be into 1000s or so.

[baldur0300]

I seem to remember various SF people saying that you would double or triple your representation in the last election. Instead you lost one seat. I wouldn't take too much satisfaction from any poll factual.

Sinn Féin did in fact increase both its share of the vote and its absolute number of votes and is the only party that has done so in each and every like for like election since the 1980s. Without putting too much emphasis on one poll, this poll suggests that the upwards trend continues for Sinn Féin.

This poll suggests nothing of the like at all. Before the GE, SF were on these numbers and above but the predicted SF breakthrough failed utterly to materialise and the party lost a TD.

PS. While FF may be argued to have done a lot for those who are already well off, it seems to me that it has not done enough for the least well off, those struggling to make ends meet in the Irish economy of today. This is probably something that more and more people will start to become concerned about as the media start to adopt a more balanced approach in its coverage of the social economy. Sinn Féin's analysis targeted on helping the least well off will come in to its own at this point and I think prove compelling to many voters. Sinn Féin would insist on a different typc of government if it were to be entering coalition, a government that puts much more emphasis on the least well off in Irish society.

Considering the fact that SF changed most of their economic proposals to come into line with FF before the election, it would seem that it is SF who have realised that they need to alter themselves before they will be palatable to FF, not the other way around.

FF have done more for the least well off then any other party and the people reward us by voting for us. FF still gets far more working class votes than SF could ever hope to achieve. We will continue to work for them and they will continue to vote for us.

[odie1kanobe]

The prob with opinion polls is that its at local level the election is one or lost.

Looking at the constituencies and the way the results happened its not clear where FG etc can pick up at the expense of FF.

Ah, the old "seatless growth" theory, so beloved of FutureTaoiseach. Its very straightforward, odie - if FG poll 32% in an election, they will gain a lot of seats. If FF poll 36%, they will lose a lot. And you can bet your bottom dollar that strategists from both parties know where. But just off the top of my head, direct FG gains from FF/PDs would proably include Louth, Cavan-Monaghan, Kildare South, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin Central, Cork North-West, and Carlow/Kilkenny. Added to that, there'd be very possible gains in places like Longford-Westmeath, Dun Laoghaire and Cork North-Central.

But thats the whole point as the 36% will not be uniform as if it were then FG would lose quite a few seats as well.

The assumption is that otehr parties would transfer to you and that may not be the case.

[hiding behind a poster]

The prob with opinion polls is that its at local level the election is one or lost.

Looking at the constituencies and the way the results happened its not clear where FG etc can pick up at the expense of FF.

Ah, the old "seatless growth" theory, so beloved of FutureTaoiseach. Its very straightforward, odie - if FG poll 32% in an election, they will gain a lot of seats. If FF poll 36%, they will lose a lot. And you can bet your bottom dollar that strategists from both parties know where. But just off the top of my head, direct FG gains from FF/PDs would proably include Louth, Cavan-Monaghan, Kildare South, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin Central, Cork North-West, and Carlow/Kilkenny. Added to that, there'd be very possible gains in places like Longford-Westmeath, Dun Laoghaire and Cork North-Central.

But thats the whole point as the 36% will not be uniform as if it were then FG would lose quite a few seats as well.

The assumption is that otehr parties would transfer to you and that may not be the case.

I never said that the 36% would be uniform, obviously it wouldn't. I've simply picked some of the FF seats that would be most vulnerable to a national swing against FF, and towards FG. Furthermore, statistically its virtually a dead cert that if a party is up on its previous election performance, it will also get, at the very least, as many transfers as it did before.

[Keith-M]

I seem to remember various SF people saying that you would double or triple your representation in the last election. Instead you lost one seat. I wouldn't take too much satisfaction from any poll factual.

Sinn Féin did in fact increase both its share of the vote and its absolute number of votes and is the only party that has done so in each and every like for like election since the 1980s. Without putting too much emphasis on one poll, this poll suggests that the upwards trend continues for Sinn Féin.

SF only increased it's vote share because it ran more candidates and its vote number, because more people voted last year. The party is stagnant at best and in retreat in much of the country (especially in and around Dublin). They are simply the WP for slow learners.

[Silvio Dante]

I seem to remember various SF people saying that you would double or triple your representation in the last election. Instead you lost one seat. I wouldn't take too much satisfaction from any poll factual.

Sinn Féin did in fact increase both its share of the vote and its absolute number of votes and is the only party that has done so in each and every like for like election since the 1980s. Without putting too much emphasis on one poll, this poll suggests that the upwards trend continues for Sinn Féin.

SF only increased it's vote share because it ran more candidates and its vote number, because more people voted last year. The party is stagnant at best and in retreat in much of the country (especially in and around Dublin). They are simply the WP for slow learners.

I've said the smae thing in the SF forum. SF are merely taking up the old WP vote that had no one to turn to after Pat and his cronies carried out their reverse takeover of the Labour Party...

[certain_people]

SF's support see-saws up and down between 6 and 10, and is predominantly confined to working class people and particularly youths, who are fickle and unreliable voters. If SF want to get more seats, they're going to have to broaden their appeal into the middle classes and older age groups. There's an opportunity there to take Labour votes, if as I expect, Labour continue to decline (they really have a problem with replacing incumbents on retirement).

[meriwether]

Its a very good poll for FG.
Its probably a little overstated, Id imagine 30% would be about right. It corresponds closely with the IT/MRBI poll which had us on 31%.

Its a mixed poll for FF. 36 is bad, but going up 4 is good. They are trending up, you could say.

Its a bad poll for Ahern personally. The wheels will be starting to come off now soon. He's a liability.

Its bad for Labour. Of the opposition minded people, who are unhappy with Ahern's finances, FG's aggressive actions recently has seen them split for FG over Labour.


Its good for SF, and grand for the Greens, They havent set the world alight, but nor has their entry in Government lead to a collpase in support.

The PD's? Doesn't matter.