FF, the PDs and Aer Lingus

[CJH]

It appears that most of the PDs/FIers have gone MIA, but I'll ask the following questions to any Thatcherites that may be lurking around the place:

Do you think that the current handbags between our two great parties (cough) has the potential to destabilise the government? Is transport really as important for the PDs as Harney claims? And isn't it too early in the Dail cycle for the PDs to pull the plug on the government? If the PDs left now, by the time the election comes around the electorate will have forgotten all about it and they won't be able to jump on their high moral horse.

[Ultan]

Is transport really as important for the PDs as Harney claims?

Well baring in mind whom the PDs largest financial contributor is I'd opine a resounding yes - as long as it involves the infamous second terminal of course.

As a non PD-er I'd guess in this case they're prepared to let the FF-ers take the shots. When Willie Walsh & company get involved with the inevitable bitching campaign I'd imagine the PDs will be quite happy to let the last true socialist deal with the flak.

[new_FF]

Call a spade a spade.

Berties was right.

Does anyone really think MrWalsh and his sidekicks were attempting a management buyout for the gold of their health?

[Kaitak]

The "MBO" proposal was never serious, but an attempt to get the govt to make a decision. It's a sad reality that this is the only way to get the govt to act on aviation issues. The government has been unable to make a decision on any issue relating to Aer Lingus or aviation generally. They deny they were pushed into this decision, but I believe that if WW and company hadn't proposed an MBO, there would have been no sub-cttee set up (which apparently hasn't met yet). Furthermore, we now have a commitment by the govt to come to a decision by December (I'll believe when I see it), but this wasn't made until the resignations were announced.

Politicians need to understand that aviation does not run on political time; decisions need to be made; opportunities need to be exploited and unless Aer Lingus gets access to capital, it can't invest in new aircraft and exploit the opportunities which do exist. Aer Lingus does not exist in a vacuum and if Aer Lingus doesn't take up these opportunities, others will.

As for the management of Aer Lingus trying to get rich overnight, I feel this is untrue. I believe that the success they have achieved in turning Aer Lingus around is proof of this; of course, Bertie wants to smear the management to make himself look better, conveniently forgetting how difficult it is to make FF make a decision. The whole issue has been a shambles.

[Edited on 18/11/2004 by Kaitak]

[crosswind]

The future of the airline was supposed to be decided before christmas (maybe not the Toaiseach himself but ministers said it) but it is now not going to be looked at by cabinet for decision again until the end of January. The future management of the airline will more than likely need to know what they are working with before the about to be vacant positions are filled. From a company point of view the need for clarity for raising funds and from a stability in management point of view it is vital to get a decision yesterday. From a political point of view there isn't consensus on the way forward otherwise there wouldn't be such a hold-up on a decision. The political friction on the issue is postponed to ensure there isn't a major problem as asked in the questions above. The commercial reality is taking second place to other considerations, not the best for our national airline.

[crosswind]

The news just gets better for Aer Lingus doesn't it. The irish Times reports that their top managers may be about to set up a new airline which would inevitably be in direct competition with Aer Lingus. It would be a brave person who'd put money on the government having a decision on the future of the airline by the end of January. having the prospect of a new airline starting up next year headed by someone like Willie Walsh will hardly enhance the prospects for getting investors for Aer Lingus either.

[crosswind]

One possible problem for a speedy resolution to the government's strategic decision on Aer lingus is that the current transport minister is in some political difficulties and could be in serious trouble if a report due out at the end of the month is unfavourable to him. If he is sacked on foot of that report then it could mean another delay with the reason being presented that a new minister needs get to grips with the brief.
Presumably the Aer Lingus Chairman has taken and is taking the necessary steps to stop any potential conflicts of interest arising, not an easy job if a new competing airline is planned.

[crosswind]

The January deadline for a decision on the future of Aer Lingus has passed, it looks like those that were dragging their feet on a decision have won and the company will have to wait, indefinitely. In the past twelve months a reform for the public transport sector appears to have lost it's zeal. The best management exponents of efficient and profitbale state transport companies has left. The minister who tried to get things going is gone to be replaced by a Minister whose last ministry seems to be making as many headlines as the present one.

There's little doubt about the importance of making tough decisions in the transport area as our existing infrastructure is well below what is needed in a world class economy in too many areas. The aviation industry is notorious for its rough ride for airlines and with Aer Lingus making profits things looked up as the management talked first of restructuring and then of a major expansion plan. The plan required financing but that's going to have to wait and what the new senior managers will bring in terms of vision to the airline is critical.

[Boston]

Do you think that the current handbags between our two great parties (cough) has the potential to destabilise the government?
No, there have been fights over worse.

Is transport really as important for the PDs as Harney claims?
No.

And isn't it too early in the Dail cycle for the PDs to pull the plug on the government?
It's never too early, remember we brought one of your govts down when you called our leader a liar so it dont take much.


If the PDs left now, by the time the election comes around the electorate will have forgotten all about it and they won't be able to jump on their high moral horse.
I doubt the electorate are that worried abour Aer Lingus, and they won't forget the things that were done in 2003 so I doubt they will forget any problems now.

I personally think some private finance needs to be pumped into the company so they can update their fleet but having looked at it I don't think privatisation would make much sense.


[Edited on 11/2/2005 by Boston]

[crosswind]

It looks like the FF-PD relationship will come into focus now over the next while with decisions apparently being made on Aer lingus, another terminal and pier D. Although we've been promised decisions before and lost a chief executive in the process. What looks like happening is a part privatisation of Aer Lingus while state investment goes into the other two. Most TDs in Fianna Fail would probably be happy enough with that, the PDs may not be though.