Originally Posted by The Langerboy

constituency polls have shown FF picking up a lot of the latter close seats and FG running too many candidates losing out.

Actually they don't show that. Prior to elections all local polls are distorted by what is called the incumbency factor. People know the names of existing TDs so they show up with more support than occur in the actual election, when the non-incumbents get mass exposure too.

So reaching conclusions based on pre-election local polls, or even early polls, is pointless. The last time most early polls proved worthless in terms of reliability.

Secondly, most local polls make claims as to how last seats will work out. In reality it is impossible to make those predictions. Local polls are small to start off with. Their transfer predictions are based on such small subsets of polls that the margin of error can be 10% of higher. In other words, any poll that predicts transfers should be binned. As pollsters know well, you can no more predict transfers based on small samples than you can predict results based on reading tea-leaves. The subsets of samples are way too small to have any reliability whatsoever.

People can argue about figures all they want but the big decider in this election will be tranfers.

FG and Lab have set themselves up to get transfers from right across the political spectrum and that will deliver marginal seats that went to FF, PDs and Independents in 2002.

That ain't gonna happen this time.
This poll is great news for Labour. I reckon a lot of the soft FF voters who can't bring themselves to vote for SF will send their transfers to Lab and coupled with FG transfers that looks good for a nice seat bonus.

FF can talk all they want, Lab won't go into government with them after this election. FF are suffering because they have no credible coalition partner and an alternative government is on offer. That means all the soft votes and transfers they picked up last time won't be there to deliver 2nd and 3rd seats.
Most of the Independents are finished and for all FF might want to spin it, the fact that a 3 pt drop in FG support still has them at 28% this close to an election is incredible considering previous outcomes for FG.

I reckon we are going to see a repeat of the 2004 local election with a mauling for FF. People are waiting in the long grass for FF and the PDs.

Labour to hit 28 seats

I looked at 2002 results and FG + 6% +12 seats, FF -5.5% -13 seats so I did weigh more seats off the FF percentage loss I honestly think that FG have far too many candidates in too many constituencies a lot of 3s and even some 4s in some 5seaters daft a lot FG support is being split and with SF at 8-12% the old wisdom no longer holds. The only reason FG have fewer candidates than FF is they went 1 each in Dublin around the country they seem to of lost the run of themselves. Having a bounce in support is one thing but those votes aren't worth a dam don't get candidate elected because the more you transfer the more you lose in our system. The percentages in 2002 would of give FG 36.52 seats they got 32.

The only viable option based on this poll results would be a Fianna Fail & Labour Government.

Fine Gael/Labour/Greens would fall significantly short as would Fianna/Fail/PD arrangement.

However, if Fianna Fail move up to 38% and the PD's hold 4+ seats, then a Fianna Fail/PD Government with the support of Fianna Fail gene pool independents would be very likely.

I agree that transfers will be critical in the election outcome as will Fine Gael having too many candidates in several constituencies.

I have little doubt also but that the Enda factor, particularly among younger voters, will cause a greater fragmentation of transfers to the benefit of Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fail.

Anything above 38% for Fianna Fail with the PD's holding some seats (e.g. Mary Harney, Michael McDowell and Tom Parlon) would see the return of the existing Government.

Operating on the norm that polls invariably underestimate SF's portion of the vote, SF will probably end up with 12-13%. With 5 'bankers' from both Donegal and Dublin constituencies, a good day in MW; ;Roscommon/L; CNC; S/LeitrimS. Wexford or Waterford; Mayo or even the surging campaign (if PP's prices are any indicator) suggest that sf will be kingmaker in the south. But the success of this stage in the struggle fori ndependence will depend on the next five years and indeed the next parliamentarian polls in both occupied and southern ireland. 12 or so will do this time.

Addendum: Forgot to clarify two'givens'. SF will retain the 5 it alreadyhas, it isassured of doubling that and if those listed can produce 2 or3 dark horsewinners ,then SF will have 13 or so.

I know Analyser has strived to outline how the current lay of the land will lead to anything other than a hung Dail.. I'm a reasonable person, open to persuasion, but I just can't see a majority for FF or the alternative on the cards, without a further push from either side (recognising the oft mentioned polling day increase for FG).. At every examination I can't get beyond 80.

My party political piece: The way the cookie looks to be crumbling, If SF play their cards right, they will be a major force for the forseeable future. Why?

-After being (ludicrously and strategically, imo) osracised in this election by other parties they could be in a position to cast a decisive die in the 30th Dail. Even if that scenario serves to contrive some kind of hamfisted avoidance strategy by other parties, this would only enhance SFs fortunes with the electorate subsequently (again, imo).

-To me, only FF/Lab have the numbers. If Lab refuse FF, it's carnage. If Lab deal with FF, it's not great for them in the long run either, imo, having put such stock in FG. SF are poised to receive any Labour fallout.

-If this truly is an "election to lose", and if an alternative govt does scrape it this time, following a much needed penance FF could be back with a bang with SF in the slipstream in a couple of years.. after having the run of a peace dividend govt in the North. Not to mention the everpresent danger for (an ageing) Lab of the drip-drip to SF. Though even a succesful FG/Lab/Green govt will have trouble staying the course.

All in all, the oft mentioned 10% ceiling seems to be where SF already are, and the cards aren't even stacked in thier favour. If they begin to fall as I've described that ceiling will surely be breached.

Originally Posted by PaulDamery

Operating on the norm that polls invariably underestimate SF's portion of the vote, SF will probably end up with 12-13%. With 5 'bankers' from both Donegal and Dublin constituencies, a good day in MW; ;Roscommon/L; CNC; S/LeitrimS. Wexford or Waterford; Mayo or even the surging campaign (if PP's prices are any indicator) suggest that sf will be kingmaker in the south. But the success of this stage in the struggle fori ndependence will depend on the next five years and indeed the next parliamentarian polls in both occupied and southern ireland. 12 or so will do this time.

SF are a large party in the North, and the poll underestimation really is from there. In the 26 they are a small party, heading towards medium-large and it's not really a simple case of adding on a few points as we do in the North. Agree with the other points though. There is a definate mood that SF are a hairs breadth away from that little nudge in the psyche of the electorate that could turn 7-10 seats into 11-14.

Yet another poll which shows that the only option that will give stable option for govt with a majority is FF and Labour

It's worth noting that in 2002 in 12 constituencies a FF candidate was the last person not eliminated and not elected and a FFer was the last eliminated in 8 constituencies one could reasonably assume their seat numbers are safe (highly unlikly to lose seats) in each of these (20) and that they have a seat vulnerable in each of the 21 others. If FF drop their vote share they have 59 'certain' seats 21 seats in which they are the incumbant party on a very bad day that would deliver 40-60% of these 21 ie 8-13 seats putting them on 67-72 seats on a bad day.

If ayone wants to do a similar analysis of their party
http://www.oireachtas.ie/documents/a-misc/elec02-01.pdf