SBP/RedC Poll

[factual]

The dates and results of all polls (and much more) are available at this excellent website más féidir leat beagán Gaeilge a thuigeant.

Why is the site as Gaeilge? Is there an English version?

You can see that the last poll was 25th March, supporting my comments above.

Calma per favore! I don't think anyone doubted your comments...

I know you're a Shinner, but not everyone is trying to oppress you!

Anyway it will be interesting to see whether FFs fall continues in the next poll, as well as whether SFs rise also continues.

[The Analyser]

Is there a poll in the Sunday Business Post this weekend?

No. The polls are always the last Sunday of the month so there was one two weeks ago.

Last time showed a big increase in Sinn Féin support a trend I hope to continue in the next poll.

I don't think there was one two weeks ago, because that would've been the Fianna Fáil Ard Fheis, and I don't remember a Poll that Sunday (though I'm open to correction!).

There was a poll a couple of weeks ago.

[dubsthcentralboy]

Is there a poll in the Sunday Business Post this weekend?

No. The polls are always the last Sunday of the month so there was one two weeks ago.

Last time showed a big increase in Sinn Féin support a trend I hope to continue in the next poll.

I don't think there was one two weeks ago, because that would've been the Fianna Fáil Ard Fheis, and I don't remember a Poll that Sunday (though I'm open to correction!).

There was a poll a couple of weeks ago.

Thank you for adding nothing to the discussion. We've already been there...

[PaulDamery]

There are few who doubt that Sinn Fein will continue its inexorable rise within the political arena, throughout Ireland. How'sever, I pay little attention to polls and the plethora of media outlets who revel in polls that undermine the republican 'performance'. Moreover, polls almost invariably underestimate the actual performance of SF, especially in occupied Ireland. A similar situation is now taking place in Dublin as the Workers party (formerly known as labour) and elements within the inherently corrupt fianna fail shiver in their wellies, at the prospect of losing several seats to the new Republican Labour alternative offered by progressive republicanism. They use the same tactics as Paisleyites and Orange Klans did. They slander, sneer at and try to isolate Republicans. Yet today Orangeism is in tatters and their ever dwindling shower of southern fellow travellers and revisionists are only noticable by their silence. It's not unreasonable to expect SF to get 15 seats in the forthcoming Dail. But the real decisive, battles have yet to come. Sdlp will pretty much exit within 5 years leaving SF as the dominant party in the occupied zone. Meanwhile, in the South, the party will continue to build its base, eclipse WP/labour and become a major governmental player. The' north' will no longer be the last bastion of the British empire. All of Ireland will be a'CelticTiger'. One hopes we always remember the integral role of Oglaigh na hEireann as we move toward a free, pluralistic Ireland which cherishes it's unique ancient culture.

[The Analyser]

There are few who doubt that Sinn Fein will continue its inexorable rise within the political arena, throughout Ireland. How'sever, I pay little attention to polls and the plethora of media outlets who revel in polls that undermine the republican 'performance'. Moreover, polls almost invariably underestimate the actual performance of SF, especially in occupied Ireland. A similar situation is now taking place in Dublin as the Workers party (formerly known as labour) and elements within the inherently corrupt fianna fail shiver in their wellies, at the prospect of losing several seats to the new Republican Labour alternative offered by progressive republicanism. They use the same tactics as Paisleyites and Orange Klans did. They slander, sneer at and try to isolate Republicans. Yet today Orangeism is in tatters and their ever dwindling shower of southern fellow travellers and revisionists are only noticable by their silence. It's not unreasonable to expect SF to get 15 seats in the forthcoming Dail. But the real decisive, battles have yet to come. Sdlp will pretty much exit within 5 years leaving SF as the dominant party in the occupied zone. Meanwhile, in the South, the party will continue to build its base, eclipse WP/labour and become a major governmental player. The' north' will no longer be the last bastion of the British empire. All of Ireland will be a'CelticTiger'. One hopes we always remember the integral role of Oglaigh na hEireann as we move toward a free, pluralistic Ireland which cherishes it's unique ancient culture.

[NickyG]

Now Analyser knows how everyone else feels when the adrenaline starts pumping for him on the methodologies of polling and seat permutations.

[hiding behind a poster]

PS with Sinn Féin now resurgent, I can't but help feel that the next SBP poll will see a higher figure for Sinn Féin

Not necessarily. The public are definitely starting to focus on potential governments now, and SF don't really feature in that. Also, The North will be squeezed as an issue by health, crime, transport, the economy, etc. Northern Ireland never scores highly as an issue in elections in the Republic.

in excess of 10% as there will be a bounce effect from a range of factors, one of which is Sinn Féin's ongoing peace strategy in the six counties.

What are the other factors? And please don't say "SF's commitment to a progressive left-wing agenda, higher taxes, an Ireland of Equals" etc etc, because they were all there two months ago when SF were at 7% in the SBP. Anyway, "SF's peace strategy" is only of interest to those with a big interest in the North - most of whom already vote SF anyway.

[factual]

PS with Sinn Féin now resurgent, I can't but help feel that the next SBP poll will see a higher figure for Sinn Féin

Not necessarily. The public are definitely starting to focus on potential governments now, and SF don't really feature in that. Also, The North will be squeezed as an issue by health, crime, transport, the economy, etc. Northern Ireland never scores highly as an issue in elections in the Republic.

Yes but Sinn Féin have a lot of parties and not dependent on the six counties issues.

in excess of 10% as there will be a bounce effect from a range of factors, one of which is Sinn Féin's ongoing peace strategy in the six counties.

What are the other factors? And please don't say "SF's commitment to a progressive left-wing agenda, higher taxes, an Ireland of Equals" etc etc, because they were all there two months ago when SF were at 7% in the SBP. Anyway, "SF's peace strategy" is only of interest to those with a big interest in the North - most of whom already vote SF anyway.

Yes, the progressive left wing agenda. The fact that SF were at 7% does not mean that these issues don't work for SF. Healthcare for example is one of Sinn Feins strongest policy issues. Better public services financed by progressive taxation. Also the public are becoming aware of how committed SFs new candidate team are. Sinn Fein are very good at canvassing and motivating their vote out and so it will be in the election.

[GJG]

The dates and results of all polls (and much more) are available at this excellent website más féidir leat beagán Gaeilge a thuigeant.

Why is the site as Gaeilge? Is there an English version?

You'd want to have pretty poor Irish not to understand the figures and graphs. The only non-totally-obvious party names are LO (Labour), CG (Green Party) and Eile (Others). Actually it's a perfect website to have in Irish only, because it's mostly figures and graphs driven, so even people with a basic grasp of the language can get a lot of information out of it.

...it will be interesting to see whether FFs fall continues in the next poll, as well as whether SFs rise also continues.

Lookid Factual, I really don't like the SF slagging that goes on here sometimes so don't tempt me to get involved, I try to stay ah factual. ;-) The SF figure jumped up in one poll. Maybe their support shot up 40 per cent in a month, but more likely it is the random movement within the margin of error - remember that? The last seven poll figures for SF are:

8, 7, 7, 7, 9, 8, 10 (neatly averaging exactly eight)

That pattern indicates that SF are hovering around eight per cent, and all of the figures are well within the margin of error. There is just nothing there that indicates a 'rise' that is continuing.

SF peaked in mid-2005 at 13 per cent, when every poll had them on over 10 per cent, and since then they have drifted downwards to about eight per cent - sometimes a bit lower, sometimes a bit higher, but their trend is downwards, not upwards.

Looking at one poll for parties like SF, the Greens or the PDs is meaningless because it is based on the opinions of a tinynumber of people - out of three million voters, just 10 people selected by luck in a poll would deliver an increase for one party or another sending, say, the PDs from three to four, and giving Mick McD hours of a free run on Today PD saying that their vote has shot up by a third.

Opinion polls are useful, but they're not gospel.

[Slartibuckfast]

The genius of Ian Paisley in demanding that the north's institutions be revived around the same time of the southern elections will guarantee Sinn Fein loads more favourable publicity at that time and favourable publicity means more votes