Reshuffle Betting

[GJG]

OK, we've got Lisbon Referendum and the Green vote on the programme for government out of the way. The next sticky moment for Cowen is the Budget, set for 9 December.

It seems impossible that he would have a reshuffle before the budget if Lenihan is to be moved, and a reshuffle between the budget and Christmas seems unthinkable in that case also. So here is the question:

When will the reshuffle be?
What movements will there be?
Will senior ministers going down be out altogether, or will they get the slow-motion demotion that Bertie practiced? (gulag ministry, junior ministry, then out)
Will Harney keep her place, or will she be thrown out in favour of a FFer?
Will the Greens have any moves?
Who will be promoted?

[GJG]

Bump.

This is politics.ie, isn't it?

[TommyO'Brien]

Bump.

This is politics.ie, isn't it?

Haven't you heard? It is in reality conspiracy theory.ie now, were paranoid nuts post rubbish about plots and fantasies.

[beanie]

I don't get how they can just reshuffle. And give the posts out to people with no relevant experience. Shouldn't they understand what their departments are about first.Minister for health spends 6 mths in A&E with actual nurses and doctors. Education minister to work as teachers aid, justice minister gets 3 mths as garda, 3mths prison officer etc.
There should be two ministers for finance, can we trust one person with the countries purse. If they mess it up, we're all fupped.

[Baron von Biffo]

I don't get how they can just reshuffle. And give the posts out to people with no relevant experience. Shouldn't they understand what their departments are about first.Minister for health spends 6 mths in A&E with actual nurses and doctors. Education minister to work as teachers aid, justice minister gets 3 mths as garda, 3mths prison officer etc.
There should be two ministers for finance, can we trust one person with the countries purse. If they mess it up, we're all fupped.

We've had an ex-guard as minister for justice in the past. Wasn't an unqualified success.

[beanie]

Is it all a bit like "Yes Minister" the satirical sitcom from the 80's. The minister is a front and the Sir Humphries are running the show?

[ang]

Probably no reshuffle until New Year. Can't see Mary Harney being dumped, though the possibility of moving her back to Enterprise, to clean up the mess, is there. I think the GP would like somebody in health or education. John Gormley will stay on in Environment, stuff going on there that he wants to see finished. I think BL will stay in finance, too hands on with NAMA to be moved and BC, probably wants to keep him close. I don't know how he will sort out reshuffle, I definiely think some backbenchers will want some goodies to pass the budget, interesting few months ahead.

[ivnryn]

Is it all a bit like "Yes Minister" the satirical sitcom from the 80's. The minister is a front and the Sir Humphries are running the show?

The relevant quota is

"Power goes with permanence. Impermanence is impotence. Rotation is castration"

[GJG]

The relevant quota is

"Power goes with permanence. Impermanence is impotence. Rotation is castration"

Good point, but Harney has been in Health for more than five years at this stage. If any manager can't make their changes in that time, is it likely that they ever will?

[The Party]

OK, we've got Lisbon Referendum and the Green vote on the programme for government out of the way. The next sticky moment for Cowen is the Budget, set for 9 December.

It seems impossible that he would have a reshuffle before the budget if Lenihan is to be moved, and a reshuffle between the budget and Christmas seems unthinkable in that case also. So here is the question:

When will the reshuffle be?
What movements will there be?
Will senior ministers going down be out altogether, or will they get the slow-motion demotion that Bertie practiced? (gulag ministry, junior ministry, then out)
Will Harney keep her place, or will she be thrown out in favour of a FFer?
Will the Greens have any moves?
Who will be promoted?

Your right there will be no reshuffle this side of the budget, thats one of the reasons CC job went to Kirk.

However, I still think the Commissioner job might go to Harney or Dempsey resulting in a reshuffle after the budget.

Couldnt see any demotions or signifcant changes in current circumstances in the context of above WO'D would be due promotion from DEfence with Pat Carey or Barry Andrews repalcing him in Defence.

Probably see John Curran or Billy Kelleher promoted to chif whip with John Cregan promoted to Junior minister.

Otherwise if Commissioner job goes outside Cabinet and Dail wouldnt expect reshuffle until September next year (at the eariliest)