Should Labour risk running two in Cork SC and Cork NC at the next General Election?

[locke]

Over 8,000 votes in both constituencies in the local elections and while it's only a local election, there would also be a higher turnout in a GE.

In NC, there's also 2,300 SP votes and 1,100 WP votes that could be expected to provide decent transfers.

Gilroy took 4,500 votes and must have some ambitions to stand for the Dail, but would Kathleen Lynch allow it?

SC has probably a weaker case, but should a candidate from the Carrigaline/Lower Harbour area be run to weaken Michael McGrath who must be the more vulnerable of the FF TDs.

[youngman]

Yes they should.....
There is not 4 seats there but there migt be 3.
If the Party wants to sit down with the big boys they must starting thinking big

[JollyRedGiant]

In NC, there's also 2,300 SP votes and 1,100 WP votes that could be expected to provide decent transfers.

I can assure you that the Socialist Party has the intention of going all out to win a seat in Cork North Central at the next election. Don't expect any Socialist Party votes to be available for transfer.

[kerrynorth]

Certainly not in NC as there is a lot of rural vote coming in there under the boundary revision. I was thinking myself that there could be a 2nd left seat between SP/SF with FF set to lose one however after what I saw what the boundary commission did to NC FG are really in poll position to take a 2nd seat with a good city/county split between Bernard Allen and the county based candidate.

If the wind were really behind them then a 2nd for SC could be considered. There is a natural division in the constituency for a city and a county (Carrigaline) candidate. Depends on what way the wind is blowing in the run up to the election itself.

[patronsaint]

Gilroy should definetely be on the ticket in NC, and despite what JRG says, Mick Barry won't get too many outside of his own area and these will transfer to Labour. McGrath is very vulnerable in SC, but who have Labour from that end of the constituency to challenge him ?

[TradCat]

The question is could running a second candidate put the existing seat at risk. If the Labour vote was split the order of elimination could work against them with WP SP and SF votes consolidating to take the seat for the hard left.

But that is unlikely with the probability of a jump in the overall Labour vote. I suppose it comes down to the Lynch family who now effectively own labour in Cork. If they do allow running mates it is likely to be Kingston in SC and Clancy in NC. They are family.

[locke]

Certainly not in NC as there is a lot of rural vote coming in there under the boundary revision. I was thinking myself that there could be a 2nd left seat between SP/SF with FF set to lose one however after what I saw what the boundary commission did to NC FG are really in poll position to take a 2nd seat with a good city/county split between Bernard Allen and the county based candidate.

The rural area that was added wouldn't necessarily be too bad.

Of the 9,000 odd being added, around 2,000 are in the Dromohane are and 1,000 are in the Watergrasshill area. Neither of these would be the worst areas for Labour and they're also full of the new marginalised housing estates which was where Labour picked up a lot of votes around the country.

Even some of the apparently more rural LEAs like Kilcullen and Mountrivers are have substantial populations of people who, after making a bit of money, moved there from Labour's strong areas on the Northside of Cork City.

Given higher turnout in a general election, if Labour were to run Lynch and Gilroy, I think there is 10,000 votes for Labour in Cork NC, with several thousand votes for smaller left-wing parties as well.

And there would definitely be at least one seat won. The problem would be Kathleen Lynch's willingness to put her own seat at risk to try to get two.

[Tiernanator]

I can assure you that the Socialist Party has the intention of going all out to win a seat in Cork North Central at the next election. Don't expect any Socialist Party votes to be available for transfer.

Really good positive thinking JRG. The struggle against cuts will definitely show which side each of the political parties take...the working class or the interests. This Sinn Féiner would definitely transfer to SP before Labour if the SP had a chance of taking a seat. Certainly the transfers from MLM to J Higgins shows there is considerable goodwill from Left Sinn Féin members and supporters towards other left candidates.

[youngman]

I dont believe Lorraine Kingston is a relation of the Lynch family...
Many people believe that she is Ciaran Lynchs' wife sister. This is not true.
I do believe Labour should run 2 extra.
Gilroy in NC and maybe O'Flynn SC?
SC is a more difficult one.....Lynchs' base Turners Cross..
Ideally Carrigaline or Bishopstown would be the area to find a candidate.
maybe they should look at a new candidate.
I dont think Brendan Ryan is in the frame.

[mccafferty cat]

It would be insanity for Labour to run 2 in either constituency. They have zero chance of a 2nd seat in NC, and almost zero chance of a 2nd seat in SC.

Even in 1992, the combined Labour/DL vote in SC was 1.36 quotas - not nearly enough to challenge for a second seat. (Toddy O'Sullivan ran with Kathleen Lynch on that occasion. The boundaries were pretty similar to what they are now). A couple of things have changed since then:

1) Cork SC is one of FG's strongest constituencies in Munster. In 1992 on the other hand, FG were outpolled by Lab/DL.
2) Dan Boyle. He hasn't a hope of getting a seat, but he has gobbled up a nice bit of what might otherwise be a Labour vote.

Also - Ciaran Lynch was only narrowly elected in 2007. If he had gotten 300 less First Preferences, or Dan Boyle had gotten 300 more, then Boyle would have been elected and Lynch lost out.

Talk of 2 seats in these areas is a nonsense - even if FF do go into meltdown. FG are in poll position for a 2nd seat in NC. And there is more chance of a 3rd FG seat in SC, than there is a 2nd for Labour