Any views on what the likely candidates will be for Cork East in the GE?

[Murph]

The last results in 2007 and 2009 locals were'nt carried out by RED C or anyother indo company.

[Red_93]

Eh?

You said 23%, which was the MRBI poll result, but RedC had Labour at 17% nationally, so maybe I picked you up wrong, but that's the impression I got.

[bprob]

Bradford was within 350 votes of winning a second seat for FG in the last two general elections, so with FG polling better, and FF worse, than 2007, it'd be monumentally stupid not to run Bradford. Anyway, Kenny is a far cleverer politician than to go round settling scores at the expense of the Dail seats he needs to be Taoiseach.

the question of whether FG should run bradford is a valid one though, because his own address is now in cork north central, following boundary changes, and his portion of the cork east FG vote has been moved with him.

i think they should take a chance on o'driscoll: young, excellent showing in local elections, and in the north of the constituency, well away from stanton

[Podolski1.5]

Dont know him personally but he seems to be very popular, especially among young voters -some of whom were or are his pupils.
He has only been tested in one election but was very impressive how he soaked up a big first preference in that one.
Can he repeat that outside of Cobh? -thats where the Mulls have the upper hand -but the other side of that argument is Mull snr doesnt seem to clock up as many votes from other towns outside of Cobh -the 2007 results were disapointing in that regard.

personally, I'd say Quinlan would be the safer bet for Labour if he starts getting his face known outside of Cobh, but if either he or the mulls are relying on Cobh alone and or a Gilmore Gale then they will be disappointed. Pity too that they will hitch their wagon to the FG Tories (no change).

Quinlan got a good vote in the locals - around 630 first preferences or 1.5 quotas - but it was no landslide. He was still well behind Seanie O'Connor. I suspect his success was more about Mull's unpopularity than his popularity.

[Murph]

True, but you forget they ran 4 candidtates in that race, Mull jnr who had the name behind him and was just Mayor didnt impress either, so considering that Seanie O'Connor was running on his own, you would have to admit that Quinlan performed very well.

Yes I think you are right about it being a bit of an anti Mullvhill vote -god knows he peed off more than a few with his bullish attitude in the previous few years, and if reports I heard had any truth in them, he even blamed and abused some of his own voters for his not getting elected in 2007.

But the big question still remains - Can Quinlan replace him and pull that vote again in and outside of Cobh? Age is definately on his side and for the women voters -he looks a dead ringer for your namesake the German football hitman Poldolski.

Its a hard one to call, but one thing I would be fairly confident of, is that Mull Jnr wont be at the races. The Family name alone wont be enough -and as said -it will actually be a hindrance in some cases. Time is passing -they need to get the rag out!

[rambler]

True, but you forget they ran 4 candidtates in that race, Mull jnr who had the name behind him and was just Mayor didnt impress either, so considering that Seanie O'Connor was running on his own, you would have to admit that Quinlan performed very well.

Yes I think you are right about it being a bit of an anti Mullvhill vote -god knows he peed off more than a few with his bullish attitude in the previous few years, and if reports I heard had any truth in them, he even blamed and abused some of his own voters for his not getting elected in 2007.

But the big question still remains - Can Quinlan replace him and pull that vote again in and outside of Cobh? Age is definately on his side and for the women voters -he looks a dead ringer for your namesake the German football hitman Poldolski.

Its a hard one to call, but one thing I would be fairly confident of, is that Mull Jnr wont be at the races. The Family name alone wont be enough -and as said -it will actually be a hindrance in some cases. Time is passing -they need to get the rag out!

To be honest about it for a guy that appeared to have so much promise before the locals, after one year down he is a disappointment and is content to follow the Mull line. All he is known for is the huge splash he made about the ambulance which is being spoken about for the last 40 years , the other was where he tried to embarass Martin who had enquired at a previous meeting about the possibility of newly elected councillors being issued with lap tops (existing councillors had been issued with them previously) only for Martin to wipe the floor with him and left him with egg on his face

[asknoquestions]

Bradford's main claim to fame seems to be that he was the youngest senator ever. But that was 25 years ago and he hasn't done a whole lot since.

[Rocket Man]

As a constituent of his I must say that Bradford has been pretty quiet lately.
This is in marked contrast to Sherlock who is very visible particularly in Mallow town.

[Murph]

Your right there Rambler -but only in the local context. I suspect by the time of the next local elections poeple will have formed the opinion that Martin is head and shoulders over Quinlan, but thats not what we are speculating about here, i.e Should labour use Quinlan to replace Mull snr as candidate for Cork East. Would he pull in a bigger vote -and can Labour in current circumstances pull two seats, or failing that can they pull one seat but down at the eastern side of the constituency?

I would be inclined to favour Quinlan- and feel he would poll better inside and outside of Cobh, fortunately for labour M Martin wont be standing against him. I also think Sherlock would have a harder ride trying to hold his seat with Quinlan in the race.

[locke]

As a resident in Cork East I must say that at this stage I am inclined to agree with the analysis: ff 1, fg 2, Lab 1. I would say that Sherlock and Stanton are safe and that one ff seat is certain to fall. The big question here is which of the two is the more likely casualty. With the big growth in population in the eastern end of the constituency it would appear to me that Ahern may have the advantage. Any thoughts?

A lot will depend on whether another candidate emerges from the Mitchelstown area. Ned had the votes sewn up there in the last election, but he would be vulnerable if a realistic candidate emerged.

The population balance has switched to the south, which in theory favours Ahern.

However, the south of the constituency was precisely the kind of commuter-land territory that deserted FF in the locals throughout the country (on a more local basis, look at their failure to win a seat in the Midleton LEA). FF's vote held up a lot better in rural areas and that would seem to help O'Keeffe.

It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that FF could lose both seats next time out. The two candidates don't have the greatest record when it comes to transferring to each other (c. 60% in house in the last few elections). Also FF did a good bit worse than their national vote in Cork East. Were they to poll around 25% nationally and 22% in Cork East, with an even split between the two candidates, that poor transfer record could come back to haunt them.